phlwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 some of those nino winters in the higher pressure box (06-07, 04-05) were not that bad...they were halfawinters but they were still pretty good at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 The sampling you did was only for verified ninos? Latest CFS2(s) continue to trend toward la nada. Yes, the relationship doesn't work without the El Nino. I was trying to find an indicator that worked, and noticed that there was a partial correlation with +ENSO's only within the dataset. No Correlation in neatral/Nin's situations. I think many people are realizing the upcoming status of our supposive "Nino" is not developing very well. It has the GLAAM/PDO working against it, The GWO in more of a La NIna Phase state, and an SOI signal that could be better. Also, if you look at the underwater anomalies from the TAO, Warm Anomalies are quickly eroding, and even is some places being replaced by cooler water. It wouldn't surprise me to see a La Nina Next Year. I still think there will be an EQ El Nino this winter, but it will be pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Not that precip in the summer across the US is the be-all, end-all in winter weather patterns but it would not be a bad thing to get a nice soaking rainstorm across the Plains and Midwest right about now to help dent the drought a bit. Would hate to have a quasi-zonal or even split flow pattern for any stretch of the winter with the Plains drought continuing. We were running into the same issues along the East Coast in 2002 with a prolonged dry spell before a wet October and November helped set the table for a nice winter. Again, precip patterns aren't the be-all/end-all but it doesn't hurt to get some rain across the Midwest to moisten things up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 We were running into the same issues along the East Coast in 2002 with a prolonged dry spell before a wet October and November helped set the table for a nice winter. I'm confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 "Dry feedbacks" outside of summer are overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 "Dry feedbacks" outside of summer are overrated. Yep, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Yes, the relationship doesn't work without the El Nino. I was trying to find an indicator that worked, and noticed that there was a partial correlation with +ENSO's only within the dataset. No Correlation in neatral/Nin's situations. I think many people are realizing the upcoming status of our supposive "Nino" is not developing very well. It has the GLAAM/PDO working against it, The GWO in more of a La NIna Phase state, and an SOI signal that could be better. Also, if you look at the underwater anomalies from the TAO, Warm Anomalies are quickly eroding, and even is some places being replaced by cooler water. It wouldn't surprise me to see a La Nina Next Year. I still think there will be an EQ El Nino this winter, but it will be pretty weak. Last three winters have given me some new found respect for the NAO which in the northeast I should have had all along. So, yes anything outside of the tropics that we can glean will help more than average given the state of the nino. Jack's NF pool: Pos NAO Your box TBD Recurving tropics: I think neutral Eurasian snowcover TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Maue is a hypemonger. https://twitter.com/...1/photo/1/large Especially since... FWIW, PTW is at 40 and UKT is in the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Maue is a hypemonger. https://twitter.com/...1/photo/1/large Especially since... FWIW, PTW is at 40 and UKT is in the upper 30's. Was too good to pass up. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/weekend-snow-doubt-it/2012/10/01/f0f69cca-0bfd-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Was too good to pass up. http://www.washingto...d57eb_blog.html I'm writing one up too. At least it's good for the lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 should I even look in the dc forum? no october snow! look what happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 The Weather Channel Winter Storm names 2012-2013! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 The Weather Channel Winter Storm names 2012-2013! no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Oh my... There were about 5,000 zones that were under winter storm warnings last season. Sounds like a daunting criteria task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 FYI, there is also a topic in the main forum about the TWC Winter Storm names if anyone is interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36966-twc-going-to-name-winter-storms-this-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 FYI, there is also a topic in the main forum about the TWC Winter Storm names if anyone is interested: http://www.americanw...ms-this-winter/ Yeah I'm gonna keep my comment here, less people will see it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Well if they get to the K storm you can use you tube to show Captain Kirk yelling its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Winter Storm Q bearing down on Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Winter Storm Q bearing down on Philly? I think inevitably Rocky will hit philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Winter Storm Q bearing down on Philly? No that one is saved for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Oh my... I know. It's sad to see how much of a joke TWC has become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Winter Storm Q bearing down on Philly? quite the quirky storm. Should have just went with q-bert for the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I suspect Q was a Star Trek reference, much like other names there are thinly veiled references to popular culture fictional characters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 In case anyone is interested: Sheena Parveen @SheenaParveen I'll have a live interview with @jimcantore from The Weather Channel about naming winter storms. . .Tune into NBC10 at 5pm to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I remember when NBC10 named winter storms about 15 years ago. I think it only lasted one winter, but I thought it was pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Mission accomplished for TWC, they'll be in one or more press cycles...Although the concept itself is not terrible, the choice of names, and the lack of coordination/buy-in from at least one NOAA agency cheapens the whole thing IMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I think inevitably Rocky will hit philly. yo how much for philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I say we name winter storms that threaten our region by poster names here in alphabetical order. First up: WINTER STORM AM19PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Although I think this is an excellent idea, I am not overly thrilled on naming a storm after him. It would end up being the storm that gets all the hype to be a major snow storm and then his blow torch comes along and turns it all to rain! I say we name winter storms that threaten our region by poster names here in alphabetical order. First up: WINTER STORM AM19PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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