Talking Winter 2012-2013

[tombo82685]

I'm going to secretly work on getting the nao negative for Dec & Jan.

Ok semi-serious. I'm assuming there is something cyclical to the cfs2 outlooks, because the recent members are trending enso neutral positive while the "older" ones were mdt el nino.

it can't be as bad as last year... i dont know if i could go another winter of seeing adam posting blowtorch pictures ftl.

[wederwarrior]

it can't be as bad as last year... i dont know if i could go another winter of seeing adam posting blowtorch pictures ftl.

As soon as you say this, you know he'll be by with some napalm in response.

[uncle W]

took all the el nino's and plus neutral years and broke them down by snowfall amounts...These are the analogs...

snowy years...December to March...

year.......snowfall.......temperature..precipitation...*= 10" snowfalls

2009-10.......51.4".......37.4.......26.73" ***

2004-05.......41.0".......36.4.......16.31" *

2003-04.......42.6".......35.2.......13.22" **

2002-03.......49.3".......34.2.......15.49" *

1993-94.......53.4".......33.6.......20.34" *

1977-78.......50.7".......32.5.......17.65" **

1968-69.......30.2".......34.7.......12.03" *

1963-64.......44.7".......35.7.......12.43" *

1957-58.......44.7".......35.0.......16.60" *

middle years................................................................................

1951-52.......19.7".......37.8.......14.21"

1965-66.......21.4".......37.6.......10.25"

1969-70.......25.6".......32.6.......16.43"

1976-77.......24.5".......33.1.......14.46"

1982-83.......27.2".......39.4.......20.24" *

1986-87.......23.1".......37.4.......17.91"

1987-88.......19.1".......36.9.......14.99"

1990-91.......24.9".......40.5.......16.89"

1992-93.......24.5".......36.2.......18.39" *

least snowy.......................................................................................

1952-53.......15.1".......39.5.......20.15"

1953-54.......15.8".......38.5.......11.13"

1958-59.......13.0".......33.2.........9.05"

1972-73.........2.8".......38.2.......18.77"

1979-80.......12.8".......36.9.......15.86"

1991-92.......12.6".......37.9.......11.89"

1994-95.......11.8".......39.1.......14.92" *

1997-98.........5.5".......41.1.......20.36"

2006-07.......12.4".......37.9.......13.13"

averages............................................................................................

snowiest......45.3".......35.0.......16.60"

mid years.....23.3".......36.8.......15.97"

low years.....11.3".......38.0.......15.03"

27 yr --

average.......26.6".......36.6.......15.87"

1870-2011--

LT Ave.........28.4".......35.2.......14.40"

The nine snowiest winters were colder and wetter on average...the next nine were milder and drier on average...The bottom nine were the mildest and driest on average...

Attached Images

• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• I added the arctic oscillation to these analogs...
  snowy years...AO monthly ave December to March...
  year..........snowfall.......Dec.......Jan.........Feb........Mar....... ave
  2009-10.......51.4".......-3.413... -2.587... -4.226... -0.432... -2.664
  2004-05.......41.0"......+1.230...+0.356... -1.271... -1.348... -0.258
  2003-04.......42.6"......+0.265... -1.686... -1.528...+0.318... -0.658
  2002-03.......49.3".......-1.592... -0.472...+0.128...+0.933... -0.251
  1993-94.......53.4".......-0.104... -0.288... -0.862...+1.881...+0.157
  1977-78.......50.7".......-0.240... -0.347... -3.014...+0.502... -0.800
  1968-69.......30.2".......-0.783... -2.967... -3.114... -1.582... -2.112
  1963-64.......44.7".......-1.178...+0.385... -0.575... -0.558... -0.482
  1957-58.......44.7"......+0.828... -1.438... -2.228... -2.522... -1.340...nine year average...-0.934
  middle years................................................................................
  1951-52.......19.7"......+1.987...+0.368... -1.747... -1.859... -0.313
  1965-66.......21.4"......+0.163... -3.232... -1.438... -0.911... -1.357
  1969-70.......25.6".......-1.856... -2.412... -1.325... -2.084... -1.919
  1976-77.......24.5".......-2.074... -3.767... -2.010...+0.344... -1.877
  1982-83.......27.2"......+0.967...+1.359... -1.806... -0.567... -0.012
  1986-87.......23.1"......+0.060... -1.148... -1.473... -1.746... -1.077
  1987-88.......19.1".......-0.534...+0.265... -1.066... -0.197... -0.383
  1990-91.......24.9"......+1.277...+0.723... -0.876... -0.527...+0.149
  1992-93.......24.5"......+1.627...+3.495...+0.184...+0.764...+1.518...nine year average...-0.586
  least snowy.......................................................................................
  1952-53.......15.1".......-1.827... -1.036... -0.249...+1.068... -0.511
  1953-54.......15.8"......+0.575... -0.148... -0.181...+0.246...+0.181
  1958-59.......13.0"...... -1.687... -2.013...+2.544...+1.442...+0.072
  1972-73.........2.8"......+1.238...+1.232...+0.786...+0.537...+0.948
  1979-80.......12.8"......+1.295... -2.066... -0.934... -1.433... -0.787
  1991-92.......12.6"......+1.613...+0.550...+1.222...+0.984...+1.067
  1994-95.......11.8"......+0.894... -0.154...+1.429...+0.393...+0.641
  1997-98.........5.5".......-0.071... -2.081... -0.183... -0.254... -0.647
  2006-07.......12.4"......+2.282...+2.034... -1.307...+1.182...+1.048...nine year average...+0.212
  as expected the snowier the winter the lower the AO index on average...
  
• ............................................................................................................................
  
• analogs PDO index...
  season......Dec...Jan...Feb...Ave...
  1951-52...-1.68...-2.01...-0.46...-1.38
  1952-53....0.04...-0.57...-0.07...-0.20
  1953-54....0.07...-1.32...-1.61...-0.95
  1957-58...-0.55....0.25....0.62....0.11
  1958-59....0.86....0.69...-0.43....0.37
  1963-64...-1.08....0.01...-0.21...-0.43
  1965-66...-0.03...-0.82...-0.03...-0.26
  1968-69...-1.27...-1.26...-0.95...-1.16
  1969-70....1.38....0.61....0.43....0.81
  1972-73...-0.33...-0.46...-0.61...-0.47
  1976-77....1.22....1.65....1.11....1.48
  1977-78...-0.69....0.34....1.34....0.33
  1979-80...-0.42...-0.11....1.32....0.26
  1982-83...-0.25....0.56....1.14....0.48
  1986-87....1.77....1.88....2.10....1.92
  1987-88....1.27....0.93....1.24....1.15
  1990-91...-2.23...-2.02...-1.19...-1.81
  1991-92....0.09....0.05....0.31....0.15
  1992-93....0.53....0.05....0.19....0.26
  1993-94....1.07....1.21....0.39....0.96
  1994-95...-1.79...-0.49....0.46...-0.61
  1997-98....0.67....0.83....1.56....1.02
  2002-03....2.10....2.09....1.75....1.98
  2003-04....0.33....0.43....0.48....0.44
  2004-05...-0.17....0.44....0.81....0.36
  2006-07....0.14....0.01....0.04....0.06
  2009-10....0.08....0.83....0.44....0.45
  

[am19psu]

Ok semi-serious. I'm assuming there is something cyclical to the cfs2 outlooks, because the recent members are trending enso neutral positive while the "older" ones were mdt el nino.

I think it's probably just having to do more with the ICs and the climate models not handling the MJO particularly well. We've seen SSTAs cool across the tropical Pacific over the last 2 weeks due to the MJO being on the other side of the globe (so the atmospheric flow in the EPAC has been anomalously easterly). As the MJO comes back around in October, we'll see SSTs warm back up and I'd bet the CFS forecasts do as well.

[Rainshadow]

it can't be as bad as last year... i dont know if i could go another winter of seeing adam posting blowtorch pictures ftl.

Maybe Adam would post photos of forsythias blooming in January instead?

[Rainshadow]

took all the el nino's and plus neutral years and broke them down by snowfall amounts...These are the analogs...

snowy years...December to March...

year.......snowfall.......temperature..precipitation...*= 10" snowfalls

2009-10.......51.4".......37.4.......26.73" ***

2004-05.......41.0".......36.4.......16.31" *

2003-04.......42.6".......35.2.......13.22" **

2002-03.......49.3".......34.2.......15.49" *

1993-94.......53.4".......33.6.......20.34" *

1977-78.......50.7".......32.5.......17.65" **

1968-69.......30.2".......34.7.......12.03" *

1963-64.......44.7".......35.7.......12.43" *

1957-58.......44.7".......35.0.......16.60" *

middle years................................................................................

1951-52.......19.7".......37.8.......14.21"

1965-66.......21.4".......37.6.......10.25"

1969-70.......25.6".......32.6.......16.43"

1976-77.......24.5".......33.1.......14.46"

1982-83.......27.2".......39.4.......20.24" *

1986-87.......23.1".......37.4.......17.91"

1987-88.......19.1".......36.9.......14.99"

1990-91.......24.9".......40.5.......16.89"

1992-93.......24.5".......36.2.......18.39" *

least snowy.......................................................................................

1952-53.......15.1".......39.5.......20.15"

1953-54.......15.8".......38.5.......11.13"

1958-59.......13.0".......33.2.........9.05"

1972-73.........2.8".......38.2.......18.77"

1979-80.......12.8".......36.9.......15.86"

1991-92.......12.6".......37.9.......11.89"

1994-95.......11.8".......39.1.......14.92" *

1997-98.........5.5".......41.1.......20.36"

2006-07.......12.4".......37.9.......13.13"

averages............................................................................................

snowiest......45.3".......35.0.......16.60"

mid years.....23.3".......36.8.......15.97"

low years.....11.3".......38.0.......15.03"

27 yr --

average.......26.6".......36.6.......15.87"

1870-2011--

LT Ave.........28.4".......35.2.......14.40"

The nine snowiest winters were colder and wetter on average...the next nine were milder and drier on average...The bottom nine were the mildest and driest on average...

Attached Images

• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• 
  
• I added the arctic oscillation to these analogs...
  snowy years...AO monthly ave December to March...
  year..........snowfall.......Dec.......Jan.........Feb........Mar....... ave
  2009-10.......51.4".......-3.413... -2.587... -4.226... -0.432... -2.664
  2004-05.......41.0"......+1.230...+0.356... -1.271... -1.348... -0.258
  2003-04.......42.6"......+0.265... -1.686... -1.528...+0.318... -0.658
  2002-03.......49.3".......-1.592... -0.472...+0.128...+0.933... -0.251
  1993-94.......53.4".......-0.104... -0.288... -0.862...+1.881...+0.157
  1977-78.......50.7".......-0.240... -0.347... -3.014...+0.502... -0.800
  1968-69.......30.2".......-0.783... -2.967... -3.114... -1.582... -2.112
  1963-64.......44.7".......-1.178...+0.385... -0.575... -0.558... -0.482
  1957-58.......44.7"......+0.828... -1.438... -2.228... -2.522... -1.340...nine year average...-0.934
  middle years................................................................................
  1951-52.......19.7"......+1.987...+0.368... -1.747... -1.859... -0.313
  1965-66.......21.4"......+0.163... -3.232... -1.438... -0.911... -1.357
  1969-70.......25.6".......-1.856... -2.412... -1.325... -2.084... -1.919
  1976-77.......24.5".......-2.074... -3.767... -2.010...+0.344... -1.877
  1982-83.......27.2"......+0.967...+1.359... -1.806... -0.567... -0.012
  1986-87.......23.1"......+0.060... -1.148... -1.473... -1.746... -1.077
  1987-88.......19.1".......-0.534...+0.265... -1.066... -0.197... -0.383
  1990-91.......24.9"......+1.277...+0.723... -0.876... -0.527...+0.149
  1992-93.......24.5"......+1.627...+3.495...+0.184...+0.764...+1.518...nine year average...-0.586
  least snowy.......................................................................................
  1952-53.......15.1".......-1.827... -1.036... -0.249...+1.068... -0.511
  1953-54.......15.8"......+0.575... -0.148... -0.181...+0.246...+0.181
  1958-59.......13.0"...... -1.687... -2.013...+2.544...+1.442...+0.072
  1972-73.........2.8"......+1.238...+1.232...+0.786...+0.537...+0.948
  1979-80.......12.8"......+1.295... -2.066... -0.934... -1.433... -0.787
  1991-92.......12.6"......+1.613...+0.550...+1.222...+0.984...+1.067
  1994-95.......11.8"......+0.894... -0.154...+1.429...+0.393...+0.641
  1997-98.........5.5".......-0.071... -2.081... -0.183... -0.254... -0.647
  2006-07.......12.4"......+2.282...+2.034... -1.307...+1.182...+1.048...nine year average...+0.212
  as expected the snowier the winter the lower the AO index on average...
  
• ............................................................................................................................
  
• analogs PDO index...
  season......Dec...Jan...Feb...Ave...
  1951-52...-1.68...-2.01...-0.46...-1.38
  1952-53....0.04...-0.57...-0.07...-0.20
  1953-54....0.07...-1.32...-1.61...-0.95
  1957-58...-0.55....0.25....0.62....0.11
  1958-59....0.86....0.69...-0.43....0.37
  1963-64...-1.08....0.01...-0.21...-0.43
  1965-66...-0.03...-0.82...-0.03...-0.26
  1968-69...-1.27...-1.26...-0.95...-1.16
  1969-70....1.38....0.61....0.43....0.81
  1972-73...-0.33...-0.46...-0.61...-0.47
  1976-77....1.22....1.65....1.11....1.48
  1977-78...-0.69....0.34....1.34....0.33
  1979-80...-0.42...-0.11....1.32....0.26
  1982-83...-0.25....0.56....1.14....0.48
  1986-87....1.77....1.88....2.10....1.92
  1987-88....1.27....0.93....1.24....1.15
  1990-91...-2.23...-2.02...-1.19...-1.81
  1991-92....0.09....0.05....0.31....0.15
  1992-93....0.53....0.05....0.19....0.26
  1993-94....1.07....1.21....0.39....0.96
  1994-95...-1.79...-0.49....0.46...-0.61
  1997-98....0.67....0.83....1.56....1.02
  2002-03....2.10....2.09....1.75....1.98
  2003-04....0.33....0.43....0.48....0.44
  2004-05...-0.17....0.44....0.81....0.36
  2006-07....0.14....0.01....0.04....0.06
  2009-10....0.08....0.83....0.44....0.45
  

Uncle,

Thanks for posting the info and how the ao/nao & pdo have a hand (and thus increases uncertainty) in all of this.

[phlwx]

for hoots and hollers, the cfs outlook was updated yesterday:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usPrecMon.gif

(it's not an endorsement of the temp outlook or precip outlook per se, but just what the CFS is long-ranging....)

One thing that piques my interest is the activeness of the pattern so far in the "fall squall" season -- it's been a bit more active and stormy compared to other Nino years...the last years that come to mind with as much severe weather (non flooding) in September is 2004 (that was thanks to Ivan & Jeanne) and 2003 (the front after Isabel blew through in mid month).

[am19psu]

FWIW, Euro seasonal model is showing a +NAO through most of winter, even though there is a strong -EPO in DJFM. Sounds like a recipe for warm/wet -> cold/dry, if that were to play out. That said, I don't think the Euro monthlies are particularly skillful

[Rainshadow]

FWIW, Euro seasonal model is showing a +NAO through most of winter, even though there is a strong -EPO in DJFM. Sounds like a recipe for warm/wet -> cold/dry, if that were to play out. That said, I don't think the Euro monthlies are particularly skillful

I didn't go to the CDC site to corroborate, but all those ice storms we locally had (and they had places farther to the north) in 1993-4 I believe was a similar set-up.

The late JackO Newfoundland pool study would definitely point to a +NAO for this winter, it was bath water from May thru July. I didn't count recurvatures yet, but am guessing we're in a NAO neutral number based on the Atlantic alone.

[HM]

I didn't go to the CDC site to corroborate, but all those ice storms we locally had (and they had places farther to the north) in 1993-4 I believe was a similar set-up.

The late JackO Newfoundland pool study would definitely point to a +NAO for this winter, it was bath water from May thru July. I didn't count recurvatures yet, but am guessing we're in a NAO neutral number based on the Atlantic alone.

Tony, long time no talk. Just to match up with your JackO thoughts, the 2012 UK prediction based on May SST were also suggesting a +NAO.

[easternsnowman]

The way things change (climate wise) and knowing how difficult it is to predict the nao this far out I would'nt place too much on these studies,how many times have they been right!

[famartin]

The way things change (climate wise) and knowing how difficult it is to predict the nao this far out I would'nt place too much on these studies,how many times have they been right!

Well... a study would seem to suggest its been right more often than not, wouldn't it? We're not talking a "model" which attempts to simulate numerically and therefore could theoretically be wrong all the time.

[easternsnowman]

Well... a study would seem to suggest its been right more often than not, wouldn't it? We're not talking a "model" which attempts to simulate numerically and therefore could theoretically be wrong all the time.

f you look at the past 2 and and a half years temps have averaged a couple of degrees above normal and I know some say that's too short of a time span to judge but the continuing trend and nothing I see changing tells me this is what we can expect from now on. I do believe it will soon be the longest period of time this has happened.

[am19psu]

f you look at the past 2 and and a half years temps have averaged a couple of degrees above normal and I know some say that's too short of a time span to judge but the continuing trend and nothing I see changing tells me this is what we can expect from now on. I do believe it will soon be the longest period of time this has happened.

/science

[easternsnowman]

/science

Are'nt there studies that state that the ice cover in the northern hemisphere in Octobet I believe, relate to the nao and a cold winter?

[am19psu]

Are'nt there studies that state that the ice cover in the northern hemisphere in Octobet I believe, relate to the nao and a cold winter?

[easternsnowman]

http://www.americanw...9-and-we-begin/

Thanks for the info that what I was looking for.

[Rainshadow]

Tony, long time no talk. Just to match up with your JackO thoughts, the 2012 UK prediction based on May SST were also suggesting a +NAO.

HM,

How are you doing? I didn't realize they were still using it for outlooks, couldn't find it recently. It would be interesting if the Siberian snow cover is above average in October, setting up totally conflicting signals. I would chose the latter over the former, but then I am in a much more easier position than alot of you are with this.

[usedtobe]

Tony, long time no talk. Just to match up with your JackO thoughts, the 2012 UK prediction based on May SST were also suggesting a +NAO.

Hm, thanks. That's not a good sign for snow lovers with a weak nino in the mid atlantic region.

[Rainshadow]

Hm, thanks. That's not a good sign for snow lovers with a weak nino in the mid atlantic region.

Wes,

The IRI site updated for the month of September, there is a lessening trend by all of the dynamical and statistical models of el nino for this upcoming winter. At this point I'm more interested as to how the mid and upper latitudes react this autumn than the eventual enso state. Its been posted for us we do ok, sometimes fabulously with a weak nino, but that depends on the nao and I suppose the pdo also.

[usedtobe]

Wes,

The IRI site updated for the month of September, there is a lessening trend by all of the dynamical and statistical models of el nino for this upcoming winter. At this point I'm more interested as to how the mid and upper latitudes react this autumn than the eventual enso state. Its been posted for us we do ok, sometimes fabulously with a weak nino, but that depends on the nao and I suppose the pdo also.

I think the odds probably favor a weak nino even with the cooling that has been taking place in the Pacific. Without a strong nino, I suspect that the pdo will stay negative. The ao and nao are always somewhat of a crap shoot. I'm worried that the ao and nao will again be more positive than negative but this early there is no real way to know. I'll be watching the snow cover and the stratosphere through the fall hoping they show me something that gets me excited. For DC, I'm not a fan of weak ninos. Since 1950 we have done less well than during moderate one and only about 1 in 3 ends up being above normal for snow plus when they do, they so far have not been mega-years in terms of snow.

[uncle W]

if you want a snowy winter during el nino or weak positive hope for a cold December...

...

seven of the ten coldest December winters had over 30" of snowfall and at least one snowfall 10" or more......Only 58-59 had well below average snowfall...69-70 and 76-77 had near average snowfall...the top warmest had one winter with over 30" and a 10" or higher snowfall...1957-58...two winters with near average snowfall...seven below average...1982-83 had a storm of 18"...1994-95 an 11" storm...

Coldest and warmest Decembers during El Nino or weak positive ...

Coldest ave temp snowfall... largest snowfall includes Oct/Nov snowfall

1958...29.4.......3.8".......3.3"

1976...29.9.......5.1".......3.1"

1963...31.2.....11.3".......6.6"

1969...33.4.......6.8".......6.8"

1968...34.3.......7.0".......5.2"

1977...35.7.......0.6".......0.4"

2009...35.9.....12.4".....10.9"

2002...36.0.....11.0".......6.0"

1993...37.3.......6.9".......4.0"

2003...37.6.....19.8".....14.0"

warmest...

2006...43.6.........0.............0

1982...42.8.......3.0".......3.0"

1990...42.6.......7.2".......7.2"

1994...42.2.........T.............T

1953...41.3.......2.2".......2.2"

1979...41.1.......3.5".......3.5"

1965...40.5..........T............T

1957...40.2.......8.7".......8.0"

1991...39.6.......0.7".......0.7"

1987...39.5.......3.7".......2.6"

• 
  

[Rainshadow]

Uncle,

Yeah alot of muscle memory with December's weather (outside of 1989 that is).

[White_Mtn_Wx]

f you look at the past 2 and and a half years temps have averaged a couple of degrees above normal and I know some say that's too short of a time span to judge but the continuing trend and nothing I see changing tells me this is what we can expect from now on. I do believe it will soon be the longest period of time this has happened.

That's no way to talk to Ray, even if he is going for a warm winter.

[phlwx]

if you want a snowy winter during el nino or weak positive hope for a cold December...

...

seven of the ten coldest December winters had over 30" of snowfall and at least one snowfall 10" or more......Only 58-59 had well below average snowfall...69-70 and 76-77 had near average snowfall...the top warmest had one winter with over 30" and a 10" or higher snowfall...1957-58...two winters with near average snowfall...seven below average...1982-83 had a storm of 18"...1994-95 an 11" storm...

Coldest and warmest Decembers during El Nino or weak positive ...

Coldest ave temp snowfall... largest snowfall includes Oct/Nov snowfall

1958...29.4.......3.8".......3.3"

1976...29.9.......5.1".......3.1"

1963...31.2.....11.3".......6.6"

1969...33.4.......6.8".......6.8"

1968...34.3.......7.0".......5.2"

1977...35.7.......0.6".......0.4"

2009...35.9.....12.4".....10.9"

2002...36.0.....11.0".......6.0"

1993...37.3.......6.9".......4.0"

2003...37.6.....19.8".....14.0"

warmest...

2006...43.6.........0.............0

1982...42.8.......3.0".......3.0"

1990...42.6.......7.2".......7.2"

1994...42.2.........T.............T

1953...41.3.......2.2".......2.2"

1979...41.1.......3.5".......3.5"

1965...40.5..........T............T

1957...40.2.......8.7".......8.0"

1991...39.6.......0.7".......0.7"

1987...39.5.......3.7".......2.6"

• 
  

The funny part of 2006-07 was how bitterly cold that February was...we really paid the price for a warm first half of winter with February and March's sleetfest and all of the cold weather we picked up in February (seven degrees below average at PHL in Feb 07).

[Allsnow]

The funny part of 2006-07 was how bitterly cold that February was...we really paid the price for a warm first half of winter with February and March's sleetfest and all of the cold weather we picked up in February (seven degrees below average at PHL in Feb 07).

Wow crazy....i remember how dry that cold was....one day not making out of the teens....change those two sleet storms to snow, and people would have said greatest turn around

[phlwx]

Wow crazy....i remember how dry that cold was....one day not making out of the teens....change those two sleet storms to snow, and people would have said greatest turn around

The flip in the pattern after January 15th was rather awesome and we had a pretty extreme twelve week run after the flip...March and April were pretty whacked as well (St. Patrick's Sleet Storm and then the nor'easter on Tax Day that had snow mixed in across the Philly burbs).

[easternsnowman]

The flip in the pattern after January 15th was rather awesome and we had a pretty extreme twelve week run after the flip...March and April were pretty whacked as well (St. Patrick's Sleet Storm and then the nor'easter on Tax Day that had snow mixed in across the Philly burbs).

I remember a picture of the manayunk area of philly that was on the news in mid april of 2007 that showed about an inch of snow on the ground.

[Rainshadow]

Tony, long time no talk. Just to match up with your JackO thoughts, the 2012 UK prediction based on May SST were also suggesting a +NAO.

HM,

I did a quick comparison of previous ensos since 1950 and "the better fits" with this season. I remember Jack saying how strong ensos sometimes do trump this as was the case in 1991 and 1997 when the pool was quite cool. At anyrate, here goes and let the people vote on it.

[am19psu]

1952 ftw