Rainshadow Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 All of these animal/insect analogies.... Any of them hold water? I mean...snow? Over the last couple days, Saw a couple "wooly boolies" that we're completely brown. The only tried and true predictor is how fat Jerry's (weathafella) squirrel are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I never have almost run over so many squirrels as in the last ten days to two weeks. They seem to be extra frantic with the nut hunting this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Totally screwed the pooch by shaving him prior to the analog providing pre-autumnal shed. Now worthless chap is now merely eating and taking dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Uh. What is happening? Why was there more ice in July than there is now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Uh. What is happening? Why was there more ice in July than there is now? because its the same reason why the ocean temps off jersey are their warmest in september and not july. It takes time to melt off all the ice after the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Uh. What is happening? Why was there more ice in July than there is now? It always reaches its minimum in September. Otherwise refer to what Tom said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 It always reaches its minimum in September. Otherwise refer to what Tom said. When will first Elko snow be this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The ECMWF monthly forecast came in with a lot of near normal temps for the winter. With the el-nino more than likely being weak instead of moderate that changes the analog list considerabily. It's hard to find a good match for a week el-nino after back to back nina seasons with the PDO negative. Many of the week el-ninos have been mild and snowless ex. 04-05. While the moderate el-ninos ended up being cold and snowy ex. 02-03 in recent years. This will be a tough winter forecast. Short term indices (AO, NAO etc.) will play a larger role than normal this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Near normal is better than above normal , well for some maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The ECMWF monthly forecast came in with a lot of near normal temps for the winter. With the el-nino more than likely being weak instead of moderate that changes the analog list considerabily. It's hard to find a good match for a week el-nino after back to back nina seasons with the PDO negative. Many of the week el-ninos have been mild and snowless ex. 04-05. While the moderate el-ninos ended up being cold and snowy ex. 02-03 in recent years. This will be a tough winter forecast. Short term indices (AO, NAO etc.) will play a larger role than normal this winter. 04-05 was a decent slightly above normal snowfall winter locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 04-05 was a decent slightly above normal snowfall winter locally That winter featured a pretty tight gradient across S/CNJ. Near normal snowfall around PHL but I had well above normal w/ 45-50" in Monmouth, cashing in on a lot of the Miller B's. PHL SW tends to do better in Miller A dominant years like DCA and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 04-05 was a decent slightly above normal snowfall winter locally End of Feb saved that winter from being mediocre at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 because its the same reason why the ocean temps off jersey are their warmest in september and not july. It takes time to melt off all the ice after the winter. Yeah we are in new record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 End of Feb saved that winter from being mediocre at best. Yeah that was quite a little stretch of winter there... 4 events in 2 or 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 The ECMWF monthly forecast came in with a lot of near normal temps for the winter. With the el-nino more than likely being weak instead of moderate that changes the analog list considerabily. It's hard to find a good match for a week el-nino after back to back nina seasons with the PDO negative. Many of the week el-ninos have been mild and snowless ex. 04-05. While the moderate el-ninos ended up being cold and snowy ex. 02-03 in recent years. This will be a tough winter forecast. Short term indices (AO, NAO etc.) will play a larger role than normal this winter. Whereas in the very short term (say since 2002), it, indeed, hasn't worked out, I assume that you realize that the longer term shows that weak Ninos have been colder than moderate ON AVG for much of the E US. This has especially been the case for those following Ninas. (I'm not addressing snow.) This includes cold weak Nino winters like 1976-7, 1963-4, 1939-40, 1911-2, and 1904-5. Also, 1968-9 was pretty chilly, itself. 1951-2 is admitedly a warm exception, but it is in the minority. Edit: By the way, how confident are you that the PDO won't turn + in time for the DJF avg. and on what are you basing this? I ask this because of the following very cold winter weak Nino analogs that followed a Nina that had a sharp PDO reversal: - 1904-5: had a similarly strongly negative PDO to 2012 the preceding summer and switched to a +PDO by the autumn that persisted through the winter - 1939-40: Aug.-Nov. all were solidly -PDO months and were immediately followed by a DJF that had the 5th most +PDO for the period 1900-2012 - 1976-7: the entire period 1/1975-6/1976 had a solidly -PDO. By 8/1976, it had already turned to a solidly +PDO, which persisted through 3/1977. The strong +PNA pattern started during 9/1976 and persisted through the rest of fall and in the winter. By the way, 1911-12 had a -PDO for the DJF avg. and it followed back to back Nina seasons. General Q about the PDO: is there somewhat of a chicken-egg situation with the +PNA/+PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 saw this posted on twitter, east is in the blue for winter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A2rDezyCUAAWlMi.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 saw this posted on twitter, east is in the blue for winter https://pbs.twimg.co...AWlMi.jpg:large don't that look pretty. Seems to indicate a rather extensive -NAO for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 don't that look pretty. Seems to indicate a rather extensive -NAO for what its worth Prettiness is in the eye of the beholder, and this eye thinks it looks gorgeous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Whereas in the very short term (say since 2002), it, indeed, hasn't worked out, I assume that you realize that the longer term shows that weak Ninos have been colder than moderate ON AVG for much of the E US. This has especially been the case for those following Ninas. (I'm not addressing snow.) This includes cold weak Nino winters like 1976-7, 1963-4, 1939-40, 1911-2, and 1904-5. Also, 1968-9 was pretty chilly, itself. 1951-2 is admitedly a warm exception, but it is in the minority. Edit: By the way, how confident are you that the PDO won't turn + in time for the DJF avg. and on what are you basing this? I ask this because of the following very cold winter weak Nino analogs that followed a Nina that had a sharp PDO reversal: - 1904-5: had a similarly strongly negative PDO to 2012 the preceding summer and switched to a +PDO by the autumn that persisted through the winter - 1939-40: Aug.-Nov. all were solidly -PDO months and were immediately followed by a DJF that had the 5th most +PDO for the period 1900-2012 - 1976-7: the entire period 1/1975-6/1976 had a solidly -PDO. By 8/1976, it had already turned to a solidly +PDO, which persisted through 3/1977. The strong +PNA pattern started during 9/1976 and persisted through the rest of fall and in the winter. By the way, 1911-12 had a -PDO for the DJF avg. and it followed back to back Nina seasons. General Q about the PDO: is there somewhat of a chicken-egg situation with the +PNA/+PDO? While there is a leaning here for where Mitch was posting, but not a slam dunk : 13 of 21 winters colder than long term median in weak nina winters for PHL area. Surprising, only 8 of 19 were snowier than average. Moderate el ninos were warmer, but they were also snowier. For us as long as the nino or nina is not off the charts strong, its how far from neutrality will the NAO be; last three winters proved that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Very relevant to the ENSO discussion: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/09/why-are-winter-outlooks-for-el-nino-so.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 While there is a leaning here for where Mitch was posting, but not a slam dunk : 13 of 21 winters colder than long term median in weak nina winters for PHL area. Surprising, only 8 of 19 were snowier than average. Moderate el ninos were warmer, but they were also snowier. For us as long as the nino or nina is not off the charts strong, its how far from neutrality will the NAO be; last three winters proved that. **I'm not addressing snowfall in this post** The good news for cold chances is that we're almost definitely going to have a weak Nino peak this fall /winter and we already know it followed a Nina. Now, if I want the best shot at a very cold winter for the E US during a weak Nino that follows a Nina, I'd certainly hope for a +PDO for DJF (along with a -AO/-NAO, of course) as these charts illustrate well: +PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (all three cold to very cold): -PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (3 of 4 cool to cold; only 1951-2 stank): -PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina excluding 1951-2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 The ECMWF monthly forecast came in with a lot of near normal temps for the winter. With the el-nino more than likely being weak instead of moderate that changes the analog list considerabily. It's hard to find a good match for a week el-nino after back to back nina seasons with the PDO negative. Many of the week el-ninos have been mild and snowless ex. 04-05. While the moderate el-ninos ended up being cold and snowy ex. 02-03 in recent years. This will be a tough winter forecast. Short term indices (AO, NAO etc.) will play a larger role than normal this winter. 04-05 had 30" of snow and was right near the current 30 yr average on temps. Are you thinking of 94-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 04-05 had 30" of snow and was right near the current 30 yr average on temps. Are you thinking of 94-95? I'm thinking he might have looked at either 2003-4 or 2005-6 that were both close to normal snow-wise. I won't see him til the end of the next week. Then again today's CFS2 run brings us to mdt el nino territory. Tomorrow's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Yeah we are in new record territory. wow, kinda shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Is it winter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Is it winter yet? It will be interesting if this +PNA were to raise the PDO significantly. If so, that would be even better news for cold winter prospects. Weak Nino + -NAO/-AO + +PDO normally = jackpot for E US cold prospects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Latest PDO is still strong negative. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 04-05 is the winter I thought of. Only 33% of normal snow fell where I was in 04-05, Lexington, KY that winter. However I guess by the posts it was a much snowier winter here. Also this would add more to the idea Feb may be the worse month for snowy cold weather this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 For entertainment purposes only this morning I put toghter an analog package. QBO and the usual teleconnections will have a role as well. If the QBO flips to + then 94-95 would be triple weighted. However if it stays - then 86-87 would be double weighted. PDO 51-52, 01-02, 94-95 ENSO 51-52, 76-77, 86-87, 94-95, 02-03, 04-05, 06-07 Overall Dec and Jan are really warm with a colder Feb. I'd like to see the PDO flip to have the best shot at a cold snowy winter. Although the average is warm a few winters on the list such as 76-77, 02-03 were cold/snowy. These are my personal thoughts and not that of that the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Agree with what you have so far, Mitchell. If it's going to be snowy this year, I think it is back-weighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Agree with what you have so far, Mitchell. If it's going to be snowy this year, I think it is back-weighted. I'm going to secretly work on getting the nao negative for Dec & Jan. Ok semi-serious. I'm assuming there is something cyclical to the cfs2 outlooks, because the recent members are trending enso neutral positive while the "older" ones were mdt el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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