wederwarrior Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Saw a few winter forecasts popping up and thought it was about time. Some say above average snowfall, some say torch... What say you? When is our first real threat going to materialize? Is it the elusive december 5th? Or another Snowtober? It is sure to be a roller coaster ride with many ups and downs, late nights waiting for the 0z Euro, and a lot of squinting/hallucinating for where the 540 line sets up. Let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Never too early indeed. When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic? Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Never too early indeed. When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic? Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy. So there is such thing as too cold and snowy? The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast. Now, granted this plays to their subscription $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Never too early indeed. When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic? Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890 their call last winter lol (to be fair, a number of people were calling for a bad Lakes winter...that flopped badly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all. not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right. yes i know, but statistically, i would like my chances of atleast normal or above snowfall wise with an el nino rather than a la nina. Their have been dud el nino yrs, 97-98 was another, but that was a powerhouse el nino which usually arent that good unless its west based. Then you have to take all the other factors like teleconnections and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 ^forgot the epic fail of 91-92 in there as well for "bad" Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right. They were both stronger than the coming el nino (forecasted). They both had cold snowy Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Rob Guarino: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Rob Guarino: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179 let me guess, cold and snowy... EDIT: yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 let me guess, cold and snowy... EDIT: yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Accuweather is no worse than the cfs or any other governemnt forecasting svcs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Accuweather is no worse than the cfs or any other governemnt forecasting svcs. I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any public forecasts with any skill at this lead time). But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any public forecasts with any skill at this lead time). But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz. That's what I have been struggling with. Even the October outlooks/forecasts for winter are a stretch and still prone to serious error, so why even bother coming out with this stuff in August? (I know the answer, but still...) I give these "forecasts" about as much credence as the farmer's almanac... This feels similar to the notion that the stores bring out the Christmas displays/decorations earlier and earlier each year. Let's get to and enjoy fall for pete's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? Sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 So there is such thing as too cold and snowy? The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast. Now, granted this plays to their subscription $ Paul must've been thinking of me when he put in that sucker hole around Elko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Paul must've been thinking of me when he put in that sucker hole around Elko i guess you will be traveling east a lot this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all. I agree about Miller A's. Even up here, we usually get shafted by Miller B's. I love Miller A's. Everyone takes part in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 let me guess, cold and snowy... EDIT: yep... Nope, actually very close to normal around here which at this distance is the safest way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all. Weaker el Ninos produce mainly Miller Bs, as well....you want the mod-strong ones down there, to activate the s stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Nope, actually very close to normal around here which at this distance is the safest way to go. He went with above average snowfall for Philly metro and the surrounding burbs. IIRC (if you have a link for it, and can show that I am recalling it incorrectly, by all means point it out), he said about the same thing last year, and we all know how that worked out. I don't agree that going with a "close to normal" call is the safest way to go. Personally, I think it's silly to even make a call in August, but I am interpreting this "for entertainment purposes only"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Ife we have a weak el nino like 2004-05 in which philly got 30 inches and burbs to the west got closer to 40 inches with average temps nobody would complain. Over 90% of the snow I had was from mid january to early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Ife we have a weak el nino like 2004-05 in which philly got 30 inches and burbs to the west got closer to 40 inches with average temps nobody would complain. Over 90% of the snow I had was from mid january to early march. The cut-off in Miller Bs is usually btwn Phiilly and NYC....you guys got lucky in 2005, but there can also be seasons like 1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Weaker el Ninos produce mainly Miller Bs, as well....you want the mod-strong ones down there, to activate the s stream. This is true, but the nino's have the miller A's while the nina's are all northern stream dominant usually. philly's highest avg snowfall wise out of the 6 enso states is weak el nino around 28 inches. While, mod and strong nina's are the least 13-15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 This is true, but the nino's have the miller A's while the nina's are all northern stream dominant usually. philly's highest avg snowfall wise out of the 6 enso states is weak el nino around 28 inches. While, mod and strong nina's are the least 13-15 inches Sans 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 They were both stronger than the coming el nino (forecasted). They both had cold snowy Feb. This year's Nino is stronger based on MEI than 94-95 was at this point...and is trending towards the top end of the model spread so far. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#sum It probably ends up pushing moderate if this trend continues into Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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