Jim Martin Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Looking like a good potential for severe weather Thursday in the middle Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 DTX has been talking up some severe potential as well STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING (PER WATER VAPOR) WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT TRACKS EAST. LATEST ROUND OF MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL FORCING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND POTENTIALLY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOST MODELS NOW BRING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING (NOT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED EITHER...IT SHEARS OFF THE WAVE OVER WESTERN B.C.). WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE ABLE TO BUILD IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH MODELS FORECASTING PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES. VERY DRY AIR LOOKS TO POUR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...QUICKLY CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Instability doesn't look all that crappy given the timing of the action. 12z NAM- 1500+jkg MUCAPE around 18z Thursday- 0z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Instability doesn't look all that crappy given the timing of the action. 12z NAM- 1500+jkg MUCAPE around 18z Thursday- 0z Fri. Not sure what you mean about timing as 18-00z is generally when we have peak heating/the highest instability... But I agree that we at least have a good shot at seeing some storms with torrential rain. Shear should be plentiful, as long as it doesn't lag behind the front/instability too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Not sure what you mean about timing as 18-00z is generally when we have peak heating/the highest instability... But I agree that we at least have a good shot at seeing some storms with torrential rain. Shear should be plentiful, as long as it doesn't lag behind the front/instability too much. Most of the shear does look post-frontal actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Day 1 slight risk now knocking at the door of Milwaukee/Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Day 1 slight risk now knocking at the door of Milwaukee/Chicago metro. I'm fulling expecting a waning line when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Day 1 slight risk now knocking at the door of Milwaukee/Chicago metro. The models have actually sped up the timing of the front over time, which is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I'm fulling expecting a waning line when I wake up. Exactly what I'm thinking too. Best chances about to be west/NW of DVN to La Crosse line or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Exactly what I'm thinking too. Best chances about to be west/NW of DVN to La Crosse line or so. severe prospects aren't that exciting but there might be just enough of a LLJ to deliver another decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Small line of storms crossing the IA/WI border and growing, could get interesting. Can't remember the last time we had storms come through so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Small line of storms crossing the IA/WI border and growing, could get interesting. Can't remember the last time we had storms come through so early. Unlikely they turn into a decent line. I know the parameters might be decent enough, but lack of forcing will probably preclude much growth of the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Unlikely they turn into a decent line. I know the parameters might be decent enough, but lack of forcing will probably preclude much growth of the complex. I'm getting the same impression, too much dry air in the boundary layer for a storm so far away from the main forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Tomorrow could definitely be interesting severe weather wise. The two main questions will be how well moisture is able to pool northward, and how much cloud debris will limit daytime heating. There could even be a few tornadoes if everything plays out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I'm getting the same impression, too much dry air in the boundary layer for a storm so far away from the main forcing. This was the observed sounding from MPX this evening, way to much dry air, although it was strong it was fairly shallow, but it was enough to dry things up as the storms approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 A nice severe cell in WC Wisconsin right now. A decently intense hail core on radar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 RAP has been showing some pretty decent parameters tomorrow afternoon. There are two areas where the parameters are especially impressive, Northern Indiana and far SW Ontario (around London). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 A friend of my wife just posted pics on their facebook out of LaCrosse... a handful of golf-ball sized hailstones. I'd think there would be a warning on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 SEMI's severe chances look to be more or less shot for the day, as the weakening complex moving through the west side of the state should effectively hinder most destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 SEMI's severe chances look to be more or less shot for the day, as the weakening complex moving through the west side of the state should effectively hinder most destabilization. Removed from the new spc outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Too bad for Indianapolis, the storms approaching have collapsed due to the outflow racing well ahead of the line it appears. How much of a drought are they still in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 This morning line introduces quite a bit of uncertainty about what happens later this afternoon. Currently a lot of clouds in the northern portion of the slight risk area in the wake of the morning complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1125 AM TSTM WND DMG LAFAYETTE 40.41N 86.87W 08/16/2012 TIPPECANOE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT TREE DOWNED BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF TRAFFIC AT THE 2300 BLOCK OF NORTH 25TH ST. DOWNED TREE ALSO BLOCKING ONE LANE OF TRAFFIC ON ELMWOOD AVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I had a meeting this morning in Indianapolis. I was driving back to Lafayette on U.S. 52 at the Boone/Clinton Co. line when I encountered this shelf cloud. It's the best one I've ever seen, just amazing structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Awesome pic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Nice squall line in S. IL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Very nice shelf cloud pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Very nice bow echo in SW Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Instability is slowly on the rise in semi... If the storms in west mi can hold up we might still be able to get at least some heavy rain here out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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