Jim Martin Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Isolated supercells possible late tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning in central and southern Indiana. Although, the Significant Tornado Parameter is not pegged that high, between one and two units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Hey Jim, please put the date or some indication of the timeframe in the main part of the title next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Nice directional shear across the area tomorrow especially per NAM. One of the limiting factors for this setup may be the marginal mid level lapse rates and resultant effect on instability. Also would prefer to see somewhat stronger mid/upper level flow, but all in all, looks good enough for some severe and wouldn't be surprised if it spits out a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 12, 2012 Author Share Posted August 12, 2012 Ok, Hoosier. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Thursday/Thursday night's also looking interesting, but first things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Thursday/Thursday night's also looking interesting, but first things first. Yeah, Wednesday further west of here as well perhaps, maybe nudging into parts of WI/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Tuesday and Wednesday looks interesting from Ohio Valley to Northeast, then the 2nd storm seems strong, i think the GFS doesn't have the right solution, i think a stronger storm system with a substantial severe threat will bring in a fall type weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Tuesday and Wednesday looks interesting from Ohio Valley to Northeast, then the 2nd storm seems strong, i think the GFS doesn't have the right solution, i think a stronger storm system with a substantial severe threat will bring in a fall type weather What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Tuesday and Wednesday looks interesting from Ohio Valley to Northeast, then the 2nd storm seems strong, i think the GFS doesn't have the right solution, i think a stronger storm system with a substantial severe threat will bring in a fall type weather You mean Monday/Tuesday with the first system? As for the second system dropping out of the Prairies, the NAM has the LLJ outrunning the best instability on Wednesday so that would likely be a no-show, just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 What makes you think that? Because he lives in that corridor, no other reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 You mean Monday/Tuesday with the first system? As for the second system dropping out of the Prairies, the NAM has the LLJ outrunning the best instability on Wednesday so that would likely be a no-show, just FYI. Yes, that's what i mean, Monday and Tuesday i haven't checked the dates, and we have to keep an eye later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Tuesday and Wednesday looks interesting from Ohio Valley to Northeast, then the 2nd storm seems strong, i think the GFS doesn't have the right solution, i think a stronger storm system with a substantial severe threat will bring in a fall type weather You've said every single "event" since you joined the board would be substantial, along with hyping your backyard, and being wrong over and over again, russellweatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 You've said every single "event" since you joined the board would be substantial, along with hyping your backyard, and being wrong over and over again, russellweatherman. hyping, hyping, i say it's a possible event, and quit calling me russellweatherman, lol, come on, we talk about weather on here for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 hyping, hyping, i say it's a possible event, and quit calling me russellweatherman, lol, come on, we talk about weather on here for fun You always using the words like "significant", "substantial" and whatnot about every setup isn't going to make it seem this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Guys it looks like we could have significant tornadoes OVER MY HOUSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 hyping, hyping, i say it's a possible event, and quit calling me russellweatherman, lol, come on, we talk about weather on here for fun It is getting annoying. Words like "Significant", "Outbreak", and "Substantial" are not meant to be thrown around or taken lightly, especially when no real basis is given. Wishcasting doesn't make things happen. It HAS been boring, but at least wait for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 hyping, hyping, i say it's a possible event, and quit calling me russellweatherman, lol, come on, we talk about weather on here for fun Just like you posted in the MA forum, that you think the Day 3 see text will produce supercells and tornadoes because there's spin in the atmosphere? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 It is getting annoying. Words like "Significant", "Outbreak", and "Substantial" are not meant to be thrown around or taken lightly, especially when no real basis is given. Wishcasting doesn't make things happen. It HAS been boring, but at least wait for November. November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 November? Yup I am counting down. Usually a pretty productive month. Most years have at least one significant event in November. 2005 had 4 in a row in fact. November is the peak of Fall severe season, and usually favors Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley. But the November 1992 outbreak badly damaged the Houston metro, and the November 7-8 2011 event caused that crazy long track tornadic supercell in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Yup I am counting down. Usually a pretty productive month. Most years have at least one significant event in November. 2005 had 4 in a row in fact. November is the peak of Fall severe season, and usually favors Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley. But the November 1992 outbreak badly damaged the Houston metro, and the November 7-8 2011 event caused that crazy long track tornadic supercell in Oklahoma. Uh, 2002? Big time outbreak on the eve of Veterans Day. Also, 2006 has been brought up as an analog quite consistently with the pattern we are in and there was a significant event in late August and two in mid/late September of that year. October has had a handful of interesting events rather recently as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Uh, 2002? Big time outbreak on the eve of Veterans Day. Also, 2006 has been brought up as an analog quite consistently with the pattern we are in and there was a significant event in late August and two in mid/late September of that year. October has had a handful of interesting events rather recently as well. Yeah I remember when that happened. I was in Sandusky, OH when that happened, as nearby Port Clinton was getting wiped out. Sky turned chocolate brown, it was pretty bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Guys it looks like we could have significant tornadoes OVER MY HOUSE. OMG CALL REED TiMMER! But seriously, as it stands right now the Severe risk for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday doesn't appear to be very substantial with Thursday likely having the greatest potential... Then again lots can change before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 IMO best chance of severe would be during the Thursday time frame. Pay attention to what happens on Wednesday in the Upper Mississippi Valley, that may give your the best clue, I started a severe thread in the Western States sub forum a few days ago with the possibility of severe weather, it only garnered one response, and I never called for a severe outbreak here, only that severe was possible. Watch the timing of the system as it progress's through MN on Wednesday and if the storms break out pre or post frontal passage. And I have questions about the low level moisture (DP's) that the models are spitting out. Seems to me that talk about a severe weather outbreak is way to mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Thursday does look like the best day. Strong low/associated cold front. Parameters including shear are pretty supportive of damaging winds if strong storms can form but the GFS hints at a lack of CAPE for areas with the best forcing and favourable wind fields. If we can get more CAPE in areas of the Great Lakes, could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That eastern trough is going to be a problem for moisture advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Yeah I remember when that happened. I was in Sandusky, OH when that happened, as nearby Port Clinton was getting wiped out. Sky turned chocolate brown, it was pretty bizarre. In 2006, there were some fairly decent severe events across the east between August and December of 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 SPC lowered the tor probs from 5% to 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 SPC lowered the tor probs from 5% to 2% Lol, the re-occurring theme of 2012. When you wake up up in the morning and look at the TOR probs, just drop it one percentage level in your head. That is what it will be later in the day anyway . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Lol. Significant lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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