When SNE Gets Hit Again by a Hurricane

[40/70 Benchmark]

What did you expect from the WOTY at 2 weeks out?

I can't wait for a few more weeks, when he starts grossly exaggerating the impact of cold snaps, as opposed to dews, and faux tropical threats.

[N. OF PIKE]

IOW, there is an 84% chance that this is a goal post guppy.

this may seem amateurish but what are your respecitve goal posts, east coast and bermuda?

the yucatan and GOM/mexico remain potential targets at this point and not just long shots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

this may seem amateurish but what are your respecitve goal posts, east coast and bermuda?

the yucatan and GOM/mexico remain potential targets at this point and not just long shots.

Yes.

No worries, questions are you learn.

This will not hit the Yucatan, or any other portion of Mx.

I just ruled it out....quote this in 10 days.

[N. OF PIKE]

Yes.

No worries, questions are you learn.

This will not hit the Yucatan, or any other portion of Mx.

I just ruled it out....quote this in 10 days.

sounds like u just invoked the blizz clause like bob did other day when he said this will not be a threat to the NE...just GOM and areas south

i just wanna see a monster form .......something along the lines of a Floyd

[Cold Miser]

i just wanna see a monster form .......something along the lines of a Floyd

This.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Goofus today hits S Florida.

[N. OF PIKE]

This.

i remember boarding up houses in s fl for about 12 hours ......2 of the houses had outdoor tv's on the pool deck ...and the weather was on the news 24/7 the infared loop of that beast when it was just ESE of the bahamas is engrained in my memories....what a monster....turn'd NW and demolish'd part of central and NW bahamas (really ground central for major canes btw) and then weakend b4 impacting SE coast.

[Cold Miser]

i remember boarding up houses in s fl for about 12 hours ......2 of the houses had outdoor tv's on the pool deck ...and the weather was on the news 24/7 the infared loop of that beast when it was just ESE of the bahamas is engrained in my memories....what a monster....turn'd NW and demolish'd part of central and NW bahamas (really ground central for major canes btw) and then weakend b4 impacting SE coast.

Yeah, that storm was pretty awesome at full strength.

[N. OF PIKE]

12z Goofus today hits S Florida.

as did almost all of its 6z ensembles or very close ... GFS ensembles have been consistent for a bit

if if if it goes thru hispanola s fl will handle this storm ...if it somehow manages to miss hispanola and cuba and hit sfl well then they'll likely have a problem

[Damage In Tolland]

Bong, bong

[CoastalWx]

Bong, bong

You're only fun if you hype things up that have a remote chance of occurring.

[Damage In Tolland]

You're only fun if you hype things up that have a remote chance of occurring.

Hype a few of these

[40/70 Benchmark]

Me likey Big Bong, Dong

Yack

[free_man]

I'd like to see an Isabel, except get that pentaeye 50mi. of Hat.

[Brian5671]

the odds of us getting some remnants are about 1000X greater than seeing the eye anywhere near SNE. So maybe some flooding rains?

[CapturedNature]

the odds of us getting some remnants are about 1000X greater than seeing the eye anywhere near SNE. So maybe some flooding rains?

If you're talking about 95L, all but a few runs take it out to sea and we might not even see those (except the south coast). Still a long ways off before anyone really knows.

Quick question - why are there two NE tropical threads? I thought this one was a general discussions about when a real hurricane did hit and its impacts and the NE Tropical one was for discussions of actual "threats" (if you want to call it that) before they got here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Ukie looks like a Hispaniola hit heading to Key West.

[neweathereye]

Getting there..slow process with invest 94.. per visible,good structure..maybe a TD by the 5pm update. See loop here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-vis-long.html

Thanks

Craig

http://northeastweathereye.com

Augusta Maine

[Cold Miser]

12z Ukie looks like a Hispaniola hit heading to Key West.

[kevin]That sounds pretty close to a SNE track[/Kevin]

[Typhoon Tip]

94L: if the system remains shallow, devoid of deeper core convection it will likely move right along with the trade vectors and end up similarly to the ECMWF. If the system overcomes what appears to be an ingest of Saharan dust and develops sustained convection like the CMC, than both beta drift and deeper layer steering would bring it farther N. As is, 94L appears to have established some closed cyclonic motion in the hi res visibility loops, with perhaps a tiny more concentrated vortex closer to the perceived axis of rotation.

Behind 94L is an upgraded 30% region of convection and apparent developing low pressure that actually already takes on the appearance of some cyclonic banding. This feature trundles over very warm waters, has favorable deep layer shear, and doesn't appear to have SAL contamination - or at least less. It would not be shocking if this region develops sooner.

Closer to home, remnant vorticity that sheared off of the dying Ernesto is located SE of Brownsville TX. This region exhibits some tendency for showers to organize into cyclonic motion over the far western Gulf. Conditions aloft are suitable for further development provided it stays over the warm Gulf waters.

[eekuasepinniW]

12z Ukie looks like a Hispaniola hit heading to Key West.

f***

[NECT]

[kevin]That sounds pretty close to a SNE track[/Kevin]

It hasn't missed us yet....

[Cold Miser]

It hasn't missed us yet....

Get back to me in 2 weeks. I'm not talking crappy "remnants" of the storm either.

[free_man]

next

[Typhoon Tip]

Now that 94L is designated...it might get more interesting in the models for better initialization.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, just saw the bevy of oper. runs from overnight... seems the mean is pretty heck bent on drilling whatever becomes of this new TD right along the Puerto R. archipelago; that would stump growth for obvious reasons, and also favor a feed back into keeping the track south.

[Typhoon Tip]

Western Gulf: 95L appears to have entangled in a bookend boundary scenario and has for the time being become somewhat more baroclinic in nature. Low leverl arcus cloud/bows are blowing away from the deeper convection.

[Typhoon Tip]

Something that I find very interesting is the recent DGEX depictions of a near East Coastal TClogenesis, that then moves toward the SNE coast.

Meanwhile, the Roundy Probabilities product is showing a modest positive anomaly in the probability field across the far western Atlantic. The combination of these tools really points to a fairly robust numerical instability signal in the general region. The DGEX is probably just developing anything there whether it is real or not, but it all in an odd way is kind of suggestive, too.

[NorEaster27]

Something that I find very interesting is the recent DGEX depictions of a near East Coastal TClogenesis, that then moves toward the SNE coast.

Meanwhile, the Roundy Probabilities product is showing a modest positive anomaly in the probability field across the far western Atlantic. The combination of these tools really points to a fairly robust numerical instability signal in the general region. The DGEX is probably just developing anything there whether it is real or not, but it all in an odd way is kind of suggestive, too.

the pattern remains very unsupportive of an east coast threat for at least the next two weeks.

[Amped]

The great lakes pattern looks very similar to 1938. Weenie

The only difference is that the storm was the 1938 storm was able to make it all the way to the bahamas before recurving. There was no weakness north of PR to steer in north early. Bermuda could still get a big hit and maybe eastern Maine. If Nova Scottia can get a cat2 so can Bangor.