When SNE Gets Hit Again by a Hurricane

[CoastalWx]

Ocean has risen 4" since AGW happened...

Cute parts of Dirty Dot flood all the time now

There are some not so cute parts making news that should be washed away.

[ORH_wxman]

That has to be a 1-500 yr deal or something like that. It's probably more likely something like that happens in NJ. I suppose if that happened to NJ...maybe it would be an issue, but it would have to be a massive storm. It's almost not even worth entertaining.

If a Hazel happened further north, it would be bad...but I'm not sure how often that can happen.

[CoastalWx]

If a Hazel happened further north, it would be bad...but I'm not sure how often that can happen.

Yeah the westerlies naturally try to take over at this latitude which makes it extremely difficult. Maybe Ginx and his Dead Sea Scrolls that he has locked up in the museum have Colonial accounts of that, but I can't think of any off hand.

[HoarfrostHubb]

There are some not so cute parts making news that should be washed away.

Yeah...that was terrible

[CoastalWx]

Yeah...that was terrible

It's always in one area. Luckily, I'm not near there.

Anyways, I'd rather be buried in 4' of snow, than lose my roof.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Agreed on that. Owning a home, having kids, etc. makes me not ao enthused for one

Give me 1888 any day, or 1978, or 1997

[Diego]

Yeah the westerlies naturally try to take over at this latitude which makes it extremely difficult. Maybe Ginx and his Dead Sea Scrolls that he has locked up in the museum have Colonial accounts of that, but I can't think of any off hand.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Colonial_Hurricane_of_1635

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,231057,00.html

[HoarfrostHubb]

Diego, there is a great paper that Ginx showed me once, that studied mud deposits from coastal storms and determined a long history of big hurricanes in Rhode Island

I will try to find it

Here is the abstract...

http://gsabulletin.g.../6/714.abstract

A pdf of the whole paper

http://faculty.gg.uwyo.edu/bshuman/Pubs/Donnelly-GSABull.pdf

7 Cat 3's or better in 700 years/// schweet

[TalcottWx]

The aspect about Gloria that always stuck in memory over the years was the antecedent low -decibel groan that crescendo ed into titanic roars, mixed with the sound of cracking timbre. The trees would sway back and forth in between those gusts, but then you'd hear the low decibel song again, and the trees would suddenly bent side ways from mid trunk all the way up; the skies over head filled with leaf and other light weight debris. In the early hours of the event, a neighbor kid and I were standing out in the middle of a neighborhood street taking note of those precedent eerie groans, when a gust hit - we heard a tremendous cracking sound, like a positively charged thunder clap, and we saw an 80 foot pine tree being foisted sideways across a back lawn. The whole thing snapped off 10 foot up and flown sideways while hanging upright in the wind, then flopping on its side. We both bolted for our respective homes when we saw that.

I lived in Acton Massachusetts at the time. The township is dappled with some meadows and fields, but mostly it is a pretty forested region. That certainly added to the cacophony of the din because it sounded like cannon fire amid the roar; the storm was a tremendous timbre correction for Middlesex Massachusetts, and I imagine that is true for most surrounding communities/counties/townships...etc. One must wonder if the big 2007 ice storm, combined with recent Irene and the October fluke, if those may sufficed some pruning. But then I think about 186mph 5 minute wind gust on Blue Hill, and wonder if the urban infrastructure of modern era Boston could conceivably fair very well at all given a redux of 1938. How about splitting the Prudential in half and having it flown through the air before flopping on it's side. Perhaps in Sci-Fi. Much more, Long Island. Hard to imagine much of the current real estate and general infrastructure being able to withstand Category 3 wind, let alone transporting those along at 40mph.

Every year as we approach mid August, and seemingly over the last 10 years we are always 1F warmer in the SST's in the Shelf Waters south of the NY Bite region, I imagine a category 3 hurricane zipping N and not weakening at all because it's 75+F water and the storm is moving at 45mph. None of the current anything from LI to Maine is anywhere close to prepared for such calamity. No one in those areas really comprehends what it would be like.

Your posts strike me as if they belong to some type of mad scientist

[NECT]

It's always in one area. Luckily, I'm not near there.

Anyways, I'd rather be buried in 4' of snow, than lose my roof.

And as we found out not so long ago, being buried in 4' of snow can take your roof down.

Not that I expect Andrew to come knocking in SNE (or 15" of cement in October), but that storm leveled everything in it's path. A week or two of no power is not even close to what a major hurricane could do. A 50 mile or so swath of sustained 100mph+ winds would make us wish for the good old days when Irene came through.

[Diego]

Diego, there is a great paper that Ginx showed me once, that studied mud deposits from coastal storms and determined a long history of big hurricanes in Rhode Island

I will try to find it

Here is the abstract...

http://gsabulletin.g.../6/714.abstract

A pdf of the whole paper

http://faculty.gg.uw...lly-GSABull.pdf

7 Cat 3's or better in 700 years/// schweet

Thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah the westerlies naturally try to take over at this latitude which makes it extremely difficult. Maybe Ginx and his Dead Sea Scrolls that he has locked up in the museum have Colonial accounts of that, but I can't think of any off hand.

Its funny you mentioned Dead Sea scrolls, Robert Ballard had some stuff in our collections we kept in storage for him for a while from his Dead sea Expedition, now that is ancient history almost Jerrys age. Hubb Dave posted those awesome papers. Someday history will repeat, let's just hope we are not around. I could picture a 115 year old petrified Kevin screaming in the nursing home at his TV when they announce a Cat 3/4 the size of Katrina is hooking from Bermuda bisecting CT.

[free_man]

I honestly hope we are without power at least a month, up to 5 or 6.

[free_man]

The aspect about Gloria that always stuck in memory over the years was the antecedent low -decibel groan that crescendo ed into titanic roars, mixed with the sound of cracking timbre. The trees would sway back and forth in between those gusts, but then you'd hear the low decibel song again, and the trees would suddenly bent side ways from mid trunk all the way up; the skies over head filled with leaf and other light weight debris. In the early hours of the event, a neighbor kid and I were standing out in the middle of a neighborhood street taking note of those precedent eerie groans, when a gust hit - we heard a tremendous cracking sound, like a positively charged thunder clap, and we saw an 80 foot pine tree being foisted sideways across a back lawn. The whole thing snapped off 10 foot up and flown sideways while hanging upright in the wind, then flopping on its side. We both bolted for our respective homes when we saw that.

I lived in Acton Massachusetts at the time. The township is dappled with some meadows and fields, but mostly it is a pretty forested region. That certainly added to the cacophony of the din because it sounded like cannon fire amid the roar; the storm was a tremendous timbre correction for Middlesex Massachusetts, and I imagine that is true for most surrounding communities/counties/townships...etc. One must wonder if the big 2007 ice storm, combined with recent Irene and the October fluke, if those may sufficed some pruning. But then I think about 186mph 5 minute wind gust on Blue Hill, and wonder if the urban infrastructure of modern era Boston could conceivably fair very well at all given a redux of 1938. How about splitting the Prudential in half and having it flown through the air before flopping on it's side. Perhaps in Sci-Fi. Much more, Long Island. Hard to imagine much of the current real estate and general infrastructure being able to withstand Category 3 wind, let alone transporting those along at 40mph.

Every year as we approach mid August, and seemingly over the last 10 years we are always 1F warmer in the SST's in the Shelf Waters south of the NY Bite region, I imagine a category 3 hurricane zipping N and not weakening at all because it's 75+F water and the storm is moving at 45mph. None of the current anything from LI to Maine is anywhere close to prepared for such calamity. No one in those areas really comprehends what it would be like.

Gloria in North Attleboro, '86, reminded me of Irene on Cape Cod, last year. sustained 30-40 with 50-80mph gusts. was fairly tame, underwhelming but fairly intense.

[Typhoon Tip]

WHAT IF IT HAPPENED TODAY?

Local officials in New England believe that a storm with the magnitude of the hurricanes of 1938 and 1635 could do even more damage today. Dennis Randall, former selectman of Kingston, Massachusetts is roughly 30 miles south of Boston on Cape Cod Bay. Randall predicts, “If a storm like that hit we wouldn’t be able to do anything. We’d totally rely on state and federal assistance.” Randall remembers living in Kingston during Hurricane Bob, a Category 2 storm that hit Massachusetts in 1991. “We lost power for two weeks and all the roads were totally impassable. It was like living in the 1880’s.”

Randall claims that he hasn’t been briefed as to the threat of hurricanes to Kingston specifically, but knows how the community would respond. He says, “there’d be a total breakdown in transportation infrastructure before the storm, and some people might not be able to leave.”

Smaller communities like Kingston may end up fairing better than larger ones. The greatest hurricane threat is in Boston, and its low lying neighborhoods. South Boston areas like Dorchester and Roxbury are only 8 to 10 feet above sea level. A Category 3 hurricane could put these areas under up to five feet of water.

Dorchester and Roxbury are some of the most populated and poorest areas of Boston. These neighborhoods have been threatened by hurricanes before. In the Great Colonial Hurricane John Wintrop noted that areas of Dorchester were flooded in the wake of the storm. In 1635 a few hundred lived in Dorchester. Today hundreds of thousands live in Dorchester.

The City of Boston does have evacuation plans on the books, according to their Emergency Preparedness Web site, but it is unclear whether or not the citizens would heed the warnings to leave.

"

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. PERSONS LIVING IN AND AROUND TOLLAND CONNECTICUT NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EVENTUAL CATEGORY 9 HURRICANE"

[Typhoon Tip]

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

Not Will per se, but if you ask around over time, you get the distinct impression that people tend to be pretty unclear about the actual fragility of "the grid", overall.

And, not to digress too wildly: In 1859 there was a solar storm. A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was essentially energetically off the charts as the cliche goes. This overwhelmed the Earth's normally protective magnetic field, such that brought ground current as far south in latitude as the Carolinas to southern California. This overwhelmed the comparatively "primitive" communication infrastructure of the day, for all transmission lines above those approximate latitudes. Telegraph engineers were said to have disconnected their batteries because the batteries began to act like buses, and the transmissions were cleaner, powered directly off the Aurora. Thankfully, society had not yet become inextricably dependent upon the vitality of those kinds of infrastructures, compared to current era, which is almost entirely dependent. This latter emergent dependency makes the impact of a redux an order of magnitude greater, or more. Should the same type of ejection take place today, and on average one is ejected and impacts the Earth every 500 years, the impact would simply become untenable.

All of those sub-stations we occasionally see dappled about the country side of North America, they set naked to the sky. The only "myelination" they have is that provided by the intrinsic Terran magnetic field - as well as the indirect protection that comes from pure statistical chance; remember, once per 500 years on average? What people do not know is that virtually all those sub-stations are not standardized designs; they are designed for demographic demand, which is dynamic. Thus, many of the parts that go into their design are highly customized, not just sitting somewhere in a warehouse waiting for a phone call. There is back orders for parts that go back 6 months in some cases. Now try and imagine if the whole system were fried? An 1859 scenario would do it in about as much time as it take to turn on a light switch. All, and we really mean ALL of the technological advancements that have made industrial, westernized culture what it is have taken place inside of 500 years, have taken place since 1859. Unmitigated growth that is untested against the backdrop of these very real probabilistic assault scenarios by Nature. Solar storms are just one of them.

Another type I think is usually worth of the question, is the more local impact scenario. Could an albeit rare category 3 hurricane moving along at 40mph, bringing right side potential wind gusts to 150+mph, be ... no. There's no chance. Any area within 50 miles of the south coast of New England would be utterly fubar and that is just not open to debate. This sort of epic scenario is far from impossible - in fact, over the span of 100 years, it becomes almost probable. Also, trying to compare October, 2011's snow storm to a Category 3 hurricane moving at 40mph? Give me a break! That's like Bambi against God Zilla.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gloria in North Attleboro, '86, reminded me of Irene on Cape Cod, last year. sustained 30-40 with 50-80mph gusts. was fairly tame, underwhelming but fairly intense.

Yup, good assessment. I was in Foxboro.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup, good assessment. I was in Foxboro.

I suspect the impact of Gloria had some variation around the area. Townships a bit more heavily wooded may have been more impacted do to power failures and so forth. We lost power in central Middlesex for about 5 days. Not terrible - probably about what one would expect given those wind speed you mentioned.

[CoastalWx]

In Gloria, I don't recall people calling for the heads of utility higher ups like they did with Irene. Nowadays people can't get on their lap tops and flip out. Smartphones are slower when this happens and cries erupt when people can't get on facebook or tweet. Nobody cared in the 80s when all they missed was Dynasty or Dallas.

[CoastalWx]

In Gloria, I don't recall people calling for the heads of utility higher ups like they did with Irene. Nowadays people can't get on their lap tops and flip out. Smartphones are slower when this happens and cries erupt when people can't get on facebook or tweet. Nobody cared in the 80s when all they missed was Dynasty or Dallas.

Of course some of the anger was warranted....moreso in CT during October when CL&P dropped the ball.

[Ed Lizard]

There is minor CF that happens here, but I haven't even seen it yet, aside from the normal Morrissey Blvd problems. This would have to be a formidable surge.

Does UMass-Boston have anything to keep water out. Never been on the campus, it could be on a natural elevation for all I know.

Did it escape '78 unscathed?

[CoastalWx]

Does UMass-Boston have anything to keep water out. Never been on the campus, it could be on a natural elevation for all I know.

Did it escape '78 unscathed?

Yeah they are raised enough to get by nor'easters.

[Ginx snewx]

In Gloria, I don't recall people calling for the heads of utility higher ups like they did with Irene. Nowadays people can't get on their lap tops and flip out. Smartphones are slower when this happens and cries erupt when people can't get on facebook or tweet. Nobody cared in the 80s when all they missed was Dynasty or Dallas.

Wow sad to see how far you missed the boat on this one. How about trees,lines still on the roads 5 days later. Zero response. I could go on forever. You are way way off base.

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah they are raised enough to get by nor'easters.

Just thinking, no surge worries for the hill along Route 3/I-93. Judging from the MBTA station adjacent, that is probably 'Savin Hill'.

Of course, the extra 30 feet of elevation may increase the wind speeds a little.

[CoastalWx]

Wow sad to see how far you missed the boat on this one. How about trees,lines still on the roads 5 days later. Zero response. I could go on forever. You are way way off base.

I understand that...but that's besides the point. Take what happened with Irene and put that back to 1985 and it would not cause the anger that it did last year. Easy to understand...we are a different society from 27 years ago. It's not a bad thing..but just how it is.

[dryslot]

In Gloria, I don't recall people calling for the heads of utility higher ups like they did with Irene. Nowadays people can't get on their lap tops and flip out. Smartphones are slower when this happens and cries erupt when people can't get on facebook or tweet. Nobody cared in the 80s when all they missed was Dynasty or Dallas.

I miss Daisy Duke, I would take a Nor'easter over any tropical system, Don't need any catastrophic damage or outages here

[CapturedNature]

I understand that...but that's besides the point. Take what happened with Irene and put that back to 1985 and it would not cause the anger that it did last year. Easy to understand...we are a different society from 27 years ago. It's not a bad thing..but just how it is.

I think we're different from just last year in terms of individual preparedness. I can't speak for Metro Boston but I know a lot of people around me that are more prepared now than they were just a year ago. After Irene you heard 1 or 2 generators and then after October, I heard even more. I see more now that I did before that. 27 years ago they were very rare. Besides generators, I think more people have alternative lighting & cooking equipment than they did.

I think that because it had been so long since the last long duration power outage that people (and the utilities) were caught off guard and I think we'd be better off the next time.

Besides, if Facebook and Twitter are more important than basic necessities, somethings wrong. Either that or people need to get BGANs or Sat Phones to fill in the gap in their own preparedness.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Remember, generators need gasoline (or diesel)

You can only run them so long without having to get to a gas station, and if there is no power there...tough luck

I don't recall people in my town being mad at National Grid after the 2008 ice storm. Most in my town had power within 1 week. Over in Fitchburg, they use Unitil, and people were ripsh*t at them

[CoastalWx]

I think we're different from just last year in terms of individual preparedness. I can't speak for Metro Boston but I know a lot of people around me that are more prepared now than they were just a year ago. After Irene you heard 1 or 2 generators and then after October, I heard even more. I see more now that I did before that. 27 years ago they were very rare. Besides generators, I think more people have alternative lighting & cooking equipment than they did.

I think that because it had been so long since the last long duration power outage that people (and the utilities) were caught off guard and I think we'd be better off the next time.

Besides, if Facebook and Twitter are more important than basic necessities, somethings wrong. Either that or people need to get BGANs or Sat Phones to fill in the gap in their own preparedness.

Well that's a good thing. It takes a wake up call for this to happen...but I'm sure people are much better prepared now than they were a year ago. Other than the typical inconviences...I'm fine without power for several days. Have a grill and plenty of camping equipment if need be for cooking etc. The one thing that is scary is losing power in the winter. Luckily I never had to endure what the foks in ORH county and srn NH had to endure during the '08 icestorm, but my family lost power for almost two days after the Dec '03 snow storm...and it wasn't fun. We went everywhere for a generator...luckily found one and had an electrician hook it up to our furnace.

[ORH_wxman]

I think we're different from just last year in terms of individual preparedness. I can't speak for Metro Boston but I know a lot of people around me that are more prepared now than they were just a year ago. After Irene you heard 1 or 2 generators and then after October, I heard even more. I see more now that I did before that. 27 years ago they were very rare. Besides generators, I think more people have alternative lighting & cooking equipment than they did.

I think that because it had been so long since the last long duration power outage that people (and the utilities) were caught off guard and I think we'd be better off the next time.

Besides, if Facebook and Twitter are more important than basic necessities, somethings wrong. Either that or people need to get BGANs or Sat Phones to fill in the gap in their own preparedness.

Yeah I cannot recall long outages for a large population area prior to 2008 ice storm going back all through the 1990s with the exception of 1991 on Cape Cod/adjacent areas during Hurricane Bob. December 1992 caused some issues here and out on the Cape, but they generally werent more than a day or two...only pockets had to deal with it longer. Interior CT had some outage issues in the Nov 2002 ice storm, but again, not a huge deal on the whole. The rest of SNE really had been lucky since Gloria.

I do think that large gap between serious outages made a lot of people unprepared....and it doesn't mean generators either (though they are awesome)...just simple basics like how to keep warm without your gas heat, plenty of lighting sources, and preparing food without electricity. Some of the stories I heard after October were almost comical...like how could people be so dumb?

Hopefully the power companies (particilarly CT L&P) are more prepared next time too. Obviously another '38 would be just monstrous devastation that people can't expect their power back in a couple days...but the next time an Irene, or an ice storm, or a wet snow storm knocks out power to half a million or a million homes...hopefully the wake up call has already been heard.