Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 WHAT IF IT HAPPENED TODAY? Local officials in New England believe that a storm with the magnitude of the hurricanes of 1938 and 1635 could do even more damage today. Dennis Randall, former selectman of Kingston, Massachusetts is roughly 30 miles south of Boston on Cape Cod Bay. Randall predicts, “If a storm like that hit we wouldn’t be able to do anything. We’d totally rely on state and federal assistance.” Randall remembers living in Kingston during Hurricane Bob, a Category 2 storm that hit Massachusetts in 1991. “We lost power for two weeks and all the roads were totally impassable. It was like living in the 1880’s.” Randall claims that he hasn’t been briefed as to the threat of hurricanes to Kingston specifically, but knows how the community would respond. He says, “there’d be a total breakdown in transportation infrastructure before the storm, and some people might not be able to leave.” Smaller communities like Kingston may end up fairing better than larger ones. The greatest hurricane threat is in Boston, and its low lying neighborhoods. South Boston areas like Dorchester and Roxbury are only 8 to 10 feet above sea level. A Category 3 hurricane could put these areas under up to five feet of water. Dorchester and Roxbury are some of the most populated and poorest areas of Boston. These neighborhoods have been threatened by hurricanes before. In the Great Colonial Hurricane John Wintrop noted that areas of Dorchester were flooded in the wake of the storm. In 1635 a few hundred lived in Dorchester. Today hundreds of thousands live in Dorchester. The City of Boston does have evacuation plans on the books, according to their Emergency Preparedness Web site, but it is unclear whether or not the citizens would heed the warnings to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm not sure why you would expect Gloria-esque restoration times for a cat 3 hurricane making landfall in HVN. I think you're totally off the mark. Consulting firms have run the numbers and come up with several reports for the state (and I'm sure region too... but I've only seen CT stuff) that say the magnitude and duration of the outages would be extreme... on the order of 1-2 months for some areas. And the numbers are usually over estimated by quite a bit...for good reason too, so they don't make expectation levels too high. We'll agree to disagree I guess. I don't see a majority of the population being without power for a month plus. Small pockets? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 And the numbers are usually over estimated by quite a bit...for good reason too, so they don't make expectation levels too high. We'll agree to disagree I guess. I don't see a majority of the population being without power for a month plus. Small pockets? Sure. And in the case of Irene and the October snowstorm they expected restoration to be much faster than it was. I just don't understand the argument that a 1938 repeat would produce similar outages to Gloria for most. That seems pretty foolish lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I wonder how well the hurricane barriers near New Bedford, PVD would do wrt urban flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 And in the case of Irene and the October snowstorm they expected restoration to be much faster than it was. I just don't understand the argument that a 1938 repeat would produce similar outages to Gloria for most. That seems pretty foolish lol. I don't think I ever produced a number. I said initial impact would be extremely high. But I'm not convinced that the majority of the populated areas are going to still be without power for a month or more. Maybe we'll find out in the next few years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 How did the forward speed of '38 increase the damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 How did the forward speed of '38 increase the damage? Well aside from an increase in winds on the east side of the storm...it hit NNE pretty hard as the storm did not have enough time for winds to spin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 A storm like 38 would produce widespread outages even as far west as PHL with Irene kind of damage there. That's a gigantic area that needs to be rebuilt. Yeah so I don't know how we would get the help in here quickly. I mean, this is like the worst of the worst cases here....but something a bit weaker and further east wouldn't be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Irene the tiny showed how having multiple states effected screws up the resource allocation. Worst case scenario and it's a month for normalcy. Cities of course quicker but anarchy could be expected after 10 days of city outage. Let's hope it never happens. Will is much more optimistic than I am. Everyone is bare bones and that includes restoration emergency inventory and manpower. It's not like it used to be. The ice storm in Mass effected a tiny geographic area in comparison to 38 or even 1815. History repeats hopefully not any time soon. Having a friend who works for a tree company that works for CL-P, one of the biggest problems they faced were residents that had generators not properly wired, which backfeed lines and transformers. The tree crews would have to wait for a line crew to ground out line/transformer before trees could be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I have zero faith in my town, state or utility. Friggin disaster. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 WHAT IF IT HAPPENED TODAY? Local officials in New England believe that a storm with the magnitude of the hurricanes of 1938 and 1635 could do even more damage today. Dennis Randall, former selectman of Kingston, Massachusetts is roughly 30 miles south of Boston on Cape Cod Bay. Randall predicts, “If a storm like that hit we wouldn’t be able to do anything. We’d totally rely on state and federal assistance.” Randall remembers living in Kingston during Hurricane Bob, a Category 2 storm that hit Massachusetts in 1991. “We lost power for two weeks and all the roads were totally impassable. It was like living in the 1880’s.” Randall claims that he hasn’t been briefed as to the threat of hurricanes to Kingston specifically, but knows how the community would respond. He says, “there’d be a total breakdown in transportation infrastructure before the storm, and some people might not be able to leave.” Smaller communities like Kingston may end up fairing better than larger ones. The greatest hurricane threat is in Boston, and its low lying neighborhoods. South Boston areas like Dorchester and Roxbury are only 8 to 10 feet above sea level. A Category 3 hurricane could put these areas under up to five feet of water. Dorchester and Roxbury are some of the most populated and poorest areas of Boston. These neighborhoods have been threatened by hurricanes before. In the Great Colonial Hurricane John Wintrop noted that areas of Dorchester were flooded in the wake of the storm. In 1635 a few hundred lived in Dorchester. Today hundreds of thousands live in Dorchester. The City of Boston does have evacuation plans on the books, according to their Emergency Preparedness Web site, but it is unclear whether or not the citizens would heed the warnings to leave. Aside from the flattering words for my neighborhood, I don't think the storm surge would be that bad here. It's always a misconception about storm surge in eastern areas with an approaching storm from the south. That dude has no idea about Dorchester. Most of it is not 10' ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 All we can really do is just hope this happens over the next few yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Yeah so I don't know how we would get the help in here quickly. I mean, this is like the worst of the worst cases here....but something a bit weaker and further east wouldn't be much better. Oh yeah definitely. If you can minimize the area affected it makes a huge difference. A cat 3 making landfall in EWB would be much less of an issue (unless you're Phil). A cat 3 plowing into W LI and W CT immediately becomes the costliest weather disaster in US history (by far) and becomes an absolute disaster east of the path. Run that thing through a densely populated, densely forested, generally unprepared, and extremely expensive part of the country and you have a recipe for immense suffering lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 All we can really do is just hope this happens over the next few yrs. You're sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Having a friend who works for a tree company that works for CL-P, one of the biggest problems they faced were residents that had generators not properly wired, which backfeed lines and transformers. The tree crews would have to wait for a line crew to ground out line/transformer before trees could be removed. Yeah and that issue will never go away lol. Look at the 2010 nor'easter that hit lower Fairfield County hard. People in Greenwich were stranded in their houses for 3-4 days because the roads were so littered with trees and the town and utilities couldn't get in. Imagine the damage being 1-2 orders of magnitude worse and covering every square mile of SNE. Once you expand the damage area you start compounding an already bad situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 All we can really do is just hope this happens over the next few yrs. No thanks. Nothing about that sounds fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Aside from the flattering words for my neighborhood, I don't think the storm surge would be that bad here. It's always a misconception about storm surge in eastern areas with an approaching storm from the south. That dude has no idea about Dorchester. Most of it is not 10' ASL. What if a strng storm came in from the E-SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 What if a strng storm came in from the E-SE? That'll happen the day West Hartford gets 15" of snow in October. Oh wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 What if a strng storm came in from the E-SE? That has to be a 1-500 yr deal or something like that. It's probably more likely something like that happens in NJ. I suppose if that happened to NJ...maybe it would be an issue, but it would have to be a massive storm. It's almost not even worth entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 There is minor CF that happens here, but I haven't even seen it yet, aside from the normal Morrissey Blvd problems. This would have to be a formidable surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That has to be a 1-500 yr deal or something like that. It's probably more likely something like that happens in NJ. I suppose if that happened to NJ...maybe it would be an issue, but it would have to be a massive storm. It's almost not even worth entertaining. You'd almost need to have a cut-off diving so far south and east that it sling shots the thing east with downstream ridging forming a wall from Bermuda to Quebec. I bet the return time isn't that long... look at Esther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 There is minor CF that happens here, but I haven't even seen it yet, aside from the normal Morrissey Blvd problems. This would have to be a formidable surge. What about 78?, perfect storm, How did Dor do in those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 You'd almost need to have a cut-off diving so far south and east that it sling shots the thing east with downstream ridging forming a wall from Bermuda to Quebec. I bet the return time isn't that long... look at Esther. Yeah Esther did that loop and then went north. I was thinking of something getting flung NW into BID or something like that. Not a TS, but a legit cane. I'm not sure when that has even happened. Maybe a hybrid colonial cane or something...but I can't imagine something less than a 200 or 300yr occurrence..something big enough to really cause problems for the MA east coast. Perhaps if something came in more from the SSE...I could see that, but even that is a rare..rare deal to get surge that the gentleman of the article as saying. I'm talking more than a 2-4' deal. Just going off the top of my head, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 What about 78?, perfect storm, How did Dor do in those? I don't know, but I think there was indirect CF flooding...water backing up the rivers etc. I heard it's happened before, but the area that I know of being effected is very limited. Much of DOT is hilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 No thanks. Nothing about that sounds fun. I'm with Ryan. I get the interest in such a storm, but I'm not for seeing large numbers of houses destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I don't know, but I think there was indirect CF flooding...water backing up the rivers etc. I heard it's happened before, but the area that I know of being effected is very limited. Much of DOT is hilly. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/NewEngSurge.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 http://www.wundergro...NewEngSurge.asp That must be the day after tomorrow scenario of a cane plowing into EWB from the SE or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 There is minor CF that happens here, but I haven't even seen it yet, aside from the normal Morrissey Blvd problems. This would have to be a formidable surge. Going to school right by where the flooding occurs, I have wondered why they have never bothered to elevate the road or build some type of levee system to avoid the road from flooding... It seems like it floods every few weeks. Do you have any information/insight on the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Going to school right by where the flooding occurs, I have wondered why they have never bothered to elevate the road or build some type of levee system to avoid the road from flooding... It seems like it floods every few weeks. Do you have any information/insight on the issue? I feel like that area may have sagged a bit. Even 4" drop will cause problems. That's the only thing that comes to mind..I think part of it is settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I feel like that area may have sagged a bit. Even 4" drop will cause problems. That's the only thing that comes to mind..I think part of it is settling. Ocean has risen 4" since AGW happened... Cute parts of Dirty Dot flood all the time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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