When SNE Gets Hit Again by a Hurricane

[HoarfrostHubb]

One thing to remember about ice and snow storms...most of their damage is branches and tree tops falling mostly straight down. True, some full sized trees topple, but a big cane up here would knock lots of trees over...

I think many people are able to go a week, maybe 2 without power. A month or two or longer would be more widespread in a Cat 3

[Damage In Tolland]

Lets get one next month

[ORH_wxman]

I doubt we would see more than a couple weeks without power for 99% of the residences in a cat 2-3 hitting the CT coast and going straight north with decent velocity. The initial power outages would be quite extensive, but I'd imagine most would be back within 4-6 days and virtually all within 2 weeks. Having talked to a lot of town DOTs and their concern over power lines, the fear of initial chaos is legit...however, we are pretty well equipped to bring it back online in relatively fast fashion. It would still be quite a mess though.

Hopefully CT learned their lesson...they were really slow in both Irene and the October snowstorm.

[CoastalWx]

I don't know...a half azz TS took out power for a 4-7 days for a good amount of people. I guess if we had a ton of crews on stand by, we could reduce the amount of time it takes to restore..but I don't have a ton of faith in that. I think many would have power back after two weeks, but a good chunk of people probably would not. Good news is that utilities probably have learned their lesson to a point so crews would be able to rush in..barring the road conditions.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will , CT would be out for over a month in many areas. They havent done much of anything except blow a lot of smoke in the media and trim some branches. If we had gusts statewide to 120 mph for 1-3 hours it would be a disaster liks noone has ever seen. It could happen in September

[ORH_wxman]

Will , CT would be out for over a month in many areas. They havent done much of anything except blow a lot of smoke in the media and trim some branches. If we had gusts statewide to 120 mph for 1-3 hours it would be a disaster liks noone has ever seen. It could happen in September

The preventable measures didn't seem to be the issue in CT...the overall management and allocation of resources did once the damage was done.

MA and CT initially had similar amounts of outages in October (CT a bit more, but same ballpark), but the response time was pathetic in CT.

If they were acting the same way as last fall, then I'd agree that they would probably take weeks to get it back. I would hope they wouldn't though. In MA, I don't envision many without power for more than a week...perhaps some pockets of 2-3 weeks in the worst hit spots that are also not on the top of the priority list (smaller and more rural communities)

[CapturedNature]

One thing to remember about ice and snow storms...most of their damage is branches and tree tops falling mostly straight down. True, some full sized trees topple, but a big cane up here would knock lots of trees over...

I think many people are able to go a week, maybe 2 without power. A month or two or longer would be more widespread in a Cat 3

That's a valid point. I do think that we'd be looking at 2 weeks tops for 80-90% of the population though. More urban areas would be connected first and then more rural areas. I could see frustration building after that.

I was in Quebec for the 1998 Ice Storm which was worse there in parts than NNE and they estimated it would take 1-2 months to replace the electrical infrastructure in some places because it was destroyed. Almost everything had to be rebuilt from the ground up outside of urban areas. I think in the end it took about 30 days to get everyone back so I think that restoration can happen quicker than most people think.

[Typhoon Tip]

I doubt we would see more than a couple weeks without power for 99% of the residences in a cat 2-3 hitting the CT coast and going straight north with decent velocity. The initial power outages would be quite extensive, but I'd imagine most would be back within 4-6 days and virtually all within 2 weeks. Having talked to a lot of town DOTs and their concern over power lines, the fear of initial chaos is legit...however, we are pretty well equipped to bring it back online in relatively fast fashion. It would still be quite a mess though.

Hopefully CT learned their lesson...they were really slow in both Irene and the October snowstorm.

Hmm, not sure I agree, Will. The damage to the communication and electrical infrastructures alone, assessment and restoration efforts would all be hugely impeded by debris fields that would be greatly underestimated. It's not fixing powerlines in a vacuum. We'd have everything from roof debris to trees and swing sets wrapped around telephone poles if there were 110mph wind gusts routinely registered inland.

In 1938, that's not what happened, where none of that is/was tested.

I recall my friend up on the ridge-line in FIT after the ice storm in '007 saying that areas there didn't get power for so long because they were waiting for deforestation efforts to come and clear roads to get utility crews in there. Imagining that on the macros scale of the Berks to Cape Cod should a powerful albeit hugely rare Cat 3 barrel through central CT to southern VT - 4/6 days is unlikely by a good measure.

But that's just me. Hopefully, we'll never have to test that type of horror -

[ORH_wxman]

Hmm, not sure I agree, Will. The damage to the communication and electrical infrastructures alone, assessment and restoration efforts would all be hugely impeded by debris fields that would be greatly underestimated. It's not fixing powerlines in a vacuum. We'd have everything from roof debris to trees and swing sets wrapped around telephone poles if there were 110mph wind gusts routinely registered inland.

In 1938, that's not what happened, where none of that is/was tested.

I recall my friend up on the ridge-line in FIT after the ice storm in '007 saying that areas there didn't get power for so long because they were waiting for deforestation efforts to come and clear roads to get utility crews in there. Imagining that on the macros scale of the Berks to Cape Cod should a powerful albeit hugely rare Cat 3 barrel through central CT to southern VT - 4/6 days is unlikely by a good measure.

But that's just me. Hopefully, we'll never have to test that type of horror -

I think we under estimate how quickly things come back...I do agree some rural areas could be in a world of hurt for 3-4 weeks...but most of the population would probably not be out more than a week...two tops. If you had shown most people the destruction of the 2008 ice storm and how long power would be out...you would have probably said a month, I think I would have. Most were back in 3-5 days (I was out for 66 hours personally)...stragglers (albeit frustrated stragglers) in the 6-10 day range with a few isolated 2 weekers.

Hurricane would be on a grander scale for sure...and higher peak destruction. For that I give it an extra week or so...maybe two. If the management and allocation fo resources was poor though...then we could be talking a month or more. But I would think after the recent issues in CT and several outage events in MA as well ('08 ice storm the beginning of that run), we could hope for good preperation and availability of resources.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's a valid point. I do think that we'd be looking at 2 weeks tops for 80-90% of the population though. More urban areas would be connected first and then more rural areas. I could see frustration building after that.

I was in Quebec for the 1998 Ice Storm which was worse there in parts than NNE and they estimated it would take 1-2 months to replace the electrical infrastructure in some places because it was destroyed. Almost everything had to be rebuilt from the ground up outside of urban areas. I think in the end it took about 30 days to get everyone back so I think that restoration can happen quicker than most people think.

If 50% or more of the power poles in the state were snapped, that would also mean the majority if not all of the substations would be damaged..that would be a month or more process to get that all repaired. 2-3 weeks would be a minimum in areas where we live with obviously the larger cities and populated areas getting it back first

[HoarfrostHubb]

One difference between 2008 and a Cat 3 would be the scale of damage bs the number of crews they could get in here

We didn't get much done with just the local crews. It wasn't until trucks from other parts got here thAT they could restore power.

In a big cane where would they come from?

[ORH_wxman]

One difference between 2008 and a Cat 3 would be the scale of damage bs the number of crews they could get in here

We didn't get much done with just the local crews. It wasn't until trucks from other parts got here thAT they could restore power.

In a big cane where would they come from?

They would come from out of state like in the ice storm, October, and Irene.

[CapturedNature]

If 50% or more of the power poles in the state were snapped, that would also mean the majority if not all of the substations would be damaged..that would be a month or more process to get that all repaired. 2-3 weeks would be a minimum in areas where we live with obviously the larger cities and populated areas getting it back first

Do a search for 1998 Ice Storm pics in Quebec and the eastern townships, particularly an area called the "Triangle of Darkness" where the entire infrastructure had to be rebuilt. That area was larger than CT and they were back within a month. I'd say 95-98% back within 2 weeks for a Cat 3 and 99.9% by end of week 3.

Here's one link with a story showing some of the damage:

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/environment/extreme-weather/the-ice-storm-of-1998/triangle-of-darkness.html

One thing we wouldn't have is pylon collapses like they had.

[HoarfrostHubb]

They would come from out of state like in the ice storm, October, and Irene.

Unless those areas were hit too

The ice storm and Rocktober and Irene had pretty localized damage compared to 1938

Things would be spread thin

[Ginx snewx]

Irene the tiny showed how having multiple states effected screws up the resource allocation. Worst case scenario and it's a month for normalcy. Cities of course quicker but anarchy could be expected after 10 days of city outage. Let's hope it never happens. Will is much more optimistic than I am. Everyone is bare bones and that includes restoration emergency inventory and manpower. It's not like it used to be. The ice storm in Mass effected a tiny geographic area in comparison to 38 or even 1815. History repeats hopefully not any time soon.

[Damage In Tolland]

Do a search for 1998 Ice Storm pics in Quebec and the eastern townships, particularly an area called the "Triangle of Darkness" where the entire infrastructure had to be rebuilt. That area was larger than CT and they were back within a month. I'd say 95-98% back within 2 weeks for a Cat 3 and 99.9% by end of week 3.

That was Quebec though..not CT..big difference..and it was a relatively small area with not large population except around Montreal.

if the 6 state region of new England all had 100+ gusts..it wouldn't happen anything like Quebec had in terms of repair time

[HoarfrostHubb]

MetHerb, yours I think is a good analogy. What was the number of customers in the Triangle?

[Ginx snewx]

Do a search for 1998 Ice Storm pics in Quebec and the eastern townships, particularly an area called the "Triangle of Darkness" where the entire infrastructure had to be rebuilt. That area was larger than CT and they were back within a month. I'd say 95-98% back within 2 weeks for a Cat 3 and 99.9% by end of week 3.

1998 utilities were fully manned and overstaffed, inventory was not an economic issue. Emphasis is now on automation and less in the field staff.

[Ginx snewx]

That was Quebec though..not CT..big difference..and it was a relatively small area with not large population except around Montreal.

if the 6 state region of new England all had 100+ gusts..it wouldn't happen anything like Quebec had in terms of repair time

Do not forget Quebec was wasted by 38 too. The massive devastation is lost by many.

[CT Rain]

I doubt we would see more than a couple weeks without power for 99% of the residences in a cat 2-3 hitting the CT coast and going straight north with decent velocity. The initial power outages would be quite extensive, but I'd imagine most would be back within 4-6 days and virtually all within 2 weeks. Having talked to a lot of town DOTs and their concern over power lines, the fear of initial chaos is legit...however, we are pretty well equipped to bring it back online in relatively fast fashion. It would still be quite a mess though.

Hopefully CT learned their lesson...they were really slow in both Irene and the October snowstorm.

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

[CapturedNature]

That was Quebec though..not CT..big difference..and it was a relatively small area with not large population except around Montreal.

if the 6 state region of new England all had 100+ gusts..it wouldn't happen anything like Quebec had in terms of repair time

LOL...Millions were without power in Canada and NNE. Like I said, entire infrastructure, including the main pylons and high-voltage lines had to be replaced. Imagine Manhattan without power for three days and no one could off the island. That was what happened to the 3 million people on the Isle of Montreal. The entire region from Ottawa south to N. NY east to New Brunswick was nearly dark. That area alone was larger than CT. I know most of Maine was without power and that's larger than the rest of NE.

MetHerb, yours I think is a good analogy. What was the number of customers in the Triangle?

I have to look it up...sorry! I think perhaps 250,000 customers? I'll be on later this evening.

[Ginx snewx]

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

Yep, a lot is going to depend on how many mutual aid resources are available.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

Violently, violently, violently agree,violently

[HoarfrostHubb]

Way more trees now than 1938

Probably more than in 1986. And we are much more dependent on electricity than 1938

[CT Rain]

1998 utilities were fully manned and overstaffed, inventory was not an economic issue. Emphasis is now on automation and less in the field staff.

One issue with a 38 repeat is that you have a number of very densely populated areas that would be impacted and need mutual aid to restore power in the first 2 weeks. You could have massive outages from NC through Quebec that take 1-2 weeks to restore. The hardest hit areas with widespread cat 2 winds in New England would suffer from very slow mutual aid response for the first 2 weeks as surrounding utilities are gobbling up resources.

One of the biggest issues besides power loss is the monumental amount of debris removal. That's actually one thing the state seems to be well prepared for with towns and the state already having standing contracts with debris removal companies, equipment, and transportation.

We have a unique set of risks in New England. Evacuations are not really a problem (most people could walk to high ground during the height of the storm) given the rapid elevation rise near the coast. The issues of most concern are debris removal, historic power outages, and a level of insured loss that's an order of magnitude worse than most would expect.

[ORH_wxman]

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

Maybe I am being too optimistic for CT...they were really pathetic in the past 2 events. I don't think I'm too optimistic at all though elsewhere.

[CoastalWx]

I think you're way too optimistic. I know emergency managers in the state expect about 2 months for full restoration after a 1938 hurricane. You're also looking at entire towns (and parts of towns) inaccessible for 2-4 days to the outside world following a '38 repeat. One of the issues here in CT (like other SNE areas) is that per mile or line CL&P is the most heavily "treed" of any major utility in the U.S. Suburban sprawl across the state and the presence of more trees now than it '38 makes the situation even worse.

I was thinking of that as well. Gotta clear the roads before you can even do anything. Maybe if we had the utilities on stand by we could limit it, but you know if a hurricane threatens SNE...the cone will probably occupy part of the coastal regions of the northeast so companies may be reluctant to send crews up our way. I guess it just depends on how strong the storm is.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I gotta get a diesel gennie and a line to my oil tank

[CT Rain]

Maybe I am being too optimistic for CT...they were really pathetic in the past 2 events. I don't think I'm too optimistic at all though elsewhere.

I'm not sure why you would expect Gloria-esque restoration times for a cat 3 hurricane making landfall in HVN. I think you're totally off the mark. Consulting firms have run the numbers and come up with several reports for the state (and I'm sure region too... but I've only seen CT stuff) that say the magnitude and duration of the outages would be extreme... on the order of 1-2 months for some areas.

[CT Rain]

I was thinking of that as well. Gotta clear the roads before you can even do anything. Maybe if we had the utilities on stand by we could limit it, but you know if a hurricane threatens SNE...the cone will probably occupy part of the coastal regions of the northeast so companies may be reluctant to send crews up our way. I guess it just depends on how strong the storm is.

A storm like 38 would produce widespread outages even as far west as PHL with Irene kind of damage there. That's a gigantic area that needs to be rebuilt.