When SNE Gets Hit Again by a Hurricane

[Ginx snewx]

That's sort of what I mean. There isn't really anything you can do, so just deal with it. To be honest, I like trees and I wouldn't want to mow the area down because every 30 years I may lose power for 5 days. I've seen many roads in NH push the tree line back about 30' or so, but they can do that when there aren't any homes on those roads.

Who is advocating clear cutting?

[wxsniss]

Does anyone know where above ground utility wires have been replaced with underground wires? I know during Irene several Boston suburbs were relatively ok with power despite widespread tree damage, and this was attributed to underground wires.

[ORH_wxman]

Geezus Will we are not advocating a clear cutting. Just pruning overheads would be nice. I am a tree hugger too but it's absurd now.

Pruning wont do much in a hurricane though. That was the point.

[CoastalWx]

Who is advocating clear cutting?

Nobody is, but while pruning may clear out a few limbs or small outage potential...I don't think it will do a heck of a lot to improve anything. I think that's all we are saying here...this is just how the area is. I'm not complaining at all.

[Ginx snewx]

Pruning wont do much in a hurricane though. That was the point.

Nobody is, but while pruning may clear out a few limbs or small outage potential...I don't think it will do a heck of a lot to improve anything. I think that's all we are saying here...this is just how the area is. I'm not complaining at all.

The more common outages from Tstorms, ice, snow, wind, disease are preventable with line management. Obviously if nothing is done, outages become more frequent, road hazards increase and the danger to line workers increase. Are you advocating to let mother nature take over? The same reasons homeowners trim, prune and make their yards neat and pretty applies to utility lines.

[Ginx snewx]

Would gladly give up both for a good hurricane. Plants grow back and greenhouses can be rebuilt.

Easy to say 100 miles away from the Ocean though.

[dryslot]

The more common outages from Tstorms, ice, snow, wind, disease are preventable with line management. Obviously if nothing is done, outages become more frequent, road hazards increase and the danger to line workers increase. Are you advocating to let mother nature take over? The same reasons homeowners trim, prune and make their yards neat and pretty applies to utility lines.

I agree Steve, A lot of the surrounding towns outside of the larger cities up here are active in pruning as outages occur frequently with ice and snow and windy conditions with overhanging limbs, Obviously blow downs are going to wipe out any line but a pruning management program saves on outages as Central Maine Power has been doing since the 98 Ice Storm

[eekuasepinniW]

Easy to say 100 miles away from the Ocean though.

Ocean is actually 51 miles from me.

Don't forget I live next to a 20+ mile long swath of open water. This area does well in hurricanes. I've seen the photos of the Weirs and Lakeside Ave after hurricane Carol and it was scary-- pretty much every single tree was completely flattened. And lakefront trees are particularly tough given they're exposed to stronger winds year round.

[Ginx snewx]

Ocean is actually 51 miles from me.

Don't forget I live next to a 20+ mile long swath of open water. This area does well in hurricanes. I've seen the photos of the Weirs and Lakeside Ave after hurricane Carol and it was scary-- pretty much every single tree was completely flattened. And lakefront trees are particularly tough given they're exposed to stronger winds year round.

I was involved with forestry project regarding 1938 blowdown in NNE, the blown down was absolutely incredible. If we ever repeat that storm hard to imagine the disaster. Why would anyone want this to happen I guess is my question. Sure the Met is interesting but something about societal breakdown and infrastructure failure for months does nothing for me. Let's not forget Americas record for recent disasters. Back in the 30 s a quick reaction force and the WPA with its hundreds of thousands of workers made it easier. Pop density has exploded, in 2012 America is now a service economy, it would not be pretty

[bobbutts]

I believe the power outages will be extended, one thing that slows things down considerably is when the high power lines are destroyed. To replace those requires lots of people and gear and transportation.

When I went through Charley in SW FL power was out for weeks despite what seemed like impressive rebuilding efforts and very localized damage in a mainly rural area. When compared to NE I think:

1. More structures and associated power/transportation infrastructure with much more lax building codes.

2. More dense and large trees that don't withstand strong winds well

3. More high-power lines going through the forest. They do keep these well cut, but they would not withstand a 1938 style storm well imo.

As always if the storm brings a surge, especially 1938ish, the biggest human problem will be people refusing to leave or trapped in low lying areas.

[CoastalWx]

The more common outages from Tstorms, ice, snow, wind, disease are preventable with line management. Obviously if nothing is done, outages become more frequent, road hazards increase and the danger to line workers increase. Are you advocating to let mother nature take over? The same reasons homeowners trim, prune and make their yards neat and pretty applies to utility lines.

Not at all....there's nothing wrong with keeping up with what we have now. Pruning helps, but I think all people are saying is that given the environment we have..it's not feasible to clear all trees 30 or 40' from lines...that's all. It would never fly with the public, and would look horrible in many areas.

[DavisStraight]

These are from Irene in Sturbridge

[wxsniss]

Re: putting lines underground (a hot topic immediately post-Irene), as I posted earlier, only a handful of Boston neighborhoods have done this.

It's an expensive endeavor, and while you protect lines from wind-fallen trees, you also make power lines more susceptible to flooding:

http://boston.cbsloc...es-underground/

Patrick: $1 Trillion To Bury Power Lines Underground

"A number of communities like Brookline have moved in recent years to put utilities underground, like Duxbury, Randolph, Newton and Chelmsford. The problem is they tend to be just small pockets in a community of a much larger population."

[CapturedNature]

These are from Irene in Sturbridge

We had very similar issues/damage south of the border like that in Stafford and Union yet we had a higher percentage (100 vs. 50) of customers lose power and I've never been able to get a good answer as to why.

Last years storms have gone a long way to making people be more prepared. There are are more generators and other emergency supplies now that you would have seen even two years ago, imho. I know I've taken some steps to fill in some gaps my preparedness.

[free_man]

I envision folks in overalls, men with long beards, and children milking cows to survive.

What is wrong with that? Far more productive than the mediocrity of American society we have now.

OOPS this belongs in AP. ;p

[free_man]

A fm cat 2 landfall would be tremendous. As long as it doesn't take the Gloria or Bob track. Gloria was enveloped with dry air and fairly tame, Bob of course took a right jog and completely missed the population centers.

There is no way around it, a direct landfall will happen eventually. May take 10 or 30 or 200 years. Maybe worse than cat2?

[MJHUB]

my neighborhood does have underground utilities, loose power at least once a month. trick is unless the entire grid is hidden below ground its useless. Irene knocked out our power for 5 days.

[Brewbeer]

Power lines should be gradually transitioned underground. Start with the main three- phase feeders that serve large parts of towns. Also, putting power underground is not as costly over the long haul as the utility companies might want us to believe.

We are going to be using electricity for a long time. Burying power lines is a good long term investment.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I want my Mr Fusion and I want it now

[mob1]

Power lines should be gradually transitioned underground. Start with the main three- phase feeders that serve large parts of towns. Also, putting power underground is not as costly over the long haul as the utility companies might want us to believe.

We are going to be using electricity for a long time. Burying power lines is a good long term investment.

I honestly don't get why towns who repeatedly lose power don't just put their lines underground, you would think it would've paid off by now. Aside from the obvious inconvenience, live wires dangling on a flooded street pose a serious safety threat (just last year someone in Rockland county NY was electrocuted by fallen wires) I live in NYC and I've never lost power other than that big power grid failure. Then again, it takes me 2 hours to find parking so underground wires don't solve everything

[HoarfrostHubb]

$1 million per mile or thereabouts

[Typhoon Tip]

The aspect about Gloria that always stuck in memory over the years was the antecedent low -decibel groan that crescendo ed into titanic roars, mixed with the sound of cracking timbre. The trees would sway back and forth in between those gusts, but then you'd hear the low decibel song again, and the trees would suddenly bent side ways from mid trunk all the way up; the skies over head filled with leaf and other light weight debris. In the early hours of the event, a neighbor kid and I were standing out in the middle of a neighborhood street taking note of those precedent eerie groans, when a gust hit - we heard a tremendous cracking sound, like a positively charged thunder clap, and we saw an 80 foot pine tree being foisted sideways across a back lawn. The whole thing snapped off 10 foot up and flown sideways while hanging upright in the wind, then flopping on its side. We both bolted for our respective homes when we saw that.

I lived in Acton Massachusetts at the time. The township is dappled with some meadows and fields, but mostly it is a pretty forested region. That certainly added to the cacophony of the din because it sounded like cannon fire amid the roar; the storm was a tremendous timbre correction for Middlesex Massachusetts, and I imagine that is true for most surrounding communities/counties/townships...etc. One must wonder if the big 2007 ice storm, combined with recent Irene and the October fluke, if those may sufficed some pruning. But then I think about 186mph 5 minute wind gust on Blue Hill, and wonder if the urban infrastructure of modern era Boston could conceivably fair very well at all given a redux of 1938. How about splitting the Prudential in half and having it flown through the air before flopping on it's side. Perhaps in Sci-Fi. Much more, Long Island. Hard to imagine much of the current real estate and general infrastructure being able to withstand Category 3 wind, let alone transporting those along at 40mph.

Every year as we approach mid August, and seemingly over the last 10 years we are always 1F warmer in the SST's in the Shelf Waters south of the NY Bite region, I imagine a category 3 hurricane zipping N and not weakening at all because it's 75+F water and the storm is moving at 45mph. None of the current anything from LI to Maine is anywhere close to prepared for such calamity. No one in those areas really comprehends what it would be like.

[N. OF PIKE]

i think a very fast moving large hurricane with windspeeds over 90 mph widespread is the biggest potetnial danger SNE could face meteorologically speaking ...will it happen in the next 15-20 years.......a smaller one that clips SE SNE and is cat 2 ya prolly ...one that slams BDR or Norwich moving N at 40 with winds over 100mph and large in size.....meh maybe 50 years or maybe in two weeks ...but not very likely

Watch what happens when the next cat 4 or 5 goes over the outer keys (marathon/key west) if you wanna talk disaster....death toll in thousands ez. (i would hope with a high confidence forecast they would be pulling those people from their homes down there but i dunno)

[dryslot]

Any tropical system that usually ends up making it this far north is usually in a weaken and accelerated state by the time it hits this lat whether its over land or off the coast so it will take quite a bit of luck to get a cat 3-5 here

[NorEaster27]

Who cares if the power goes out?

[HoarfrostHubb]

They happen, not all that often, but the geologic record of SNE testifies to their occurance.

Sometime more formidable than 1938.

[HoarfrostHubb]

And Pickles, the Keys were.destroyed by a biggie in the...1920s?...that killed a lot of people, and things were not built up then

Edit...1935 Cat 5...up to 600 dead

[ORH_wxman]

And Pickles, the Keys were.destroyed by a biggie in the...1920s?...that killed a lot of people, and things were not built up then

1935 Labor Day hurricane...its the earliest of the 3 known cat 5s to hit the US.

[CapturedNature]

The aspect about Gloria that always stuck in memory over the years was the antecedent low -decibel groan that crescendo ed into titanic roars, mixed with the sound of cracking timbre. The trees would sway back and forth in between those gusts, but then you'd hear the low decibel song again, and the trees would suddenly bent side ways from mid trunk all the way up; the skies over head filled with leaf and other light weight debris. In the early hours of the event, a neighbor kid and I were standing out in the middle of a neighborhood street taking note of those precedent eerie groans, when a gust hit - we heard a tremendous cracking sound, like a positively charged thunder clap, and we saw an 80 foot pine tree being foisted sideways across a back lawn. The whole thing snapped off 10 foot up and flown sideways while hanging upright in the wind, then flopping on its side. We both bolted for our respective homes when we saw that.

I lived in Acton Massachusetts at the time. The township is dappled with some meadows and fields, but mostly it is a pretty forested region. That certainly added to the cacophony of the din because it sounded like cannon fire amid the roar; the storm was a tremendous timbre correction for Middlesex Massachusetts, and I imagine that is true for most surrounding communities/counties/townships...etc. One must wonder if the big 2007 ice storm, combined with recent Irene and the October fluke, if those may sufficed some pruning. But then I think about 186mph 5 minute wind gust on Blue Hill, and wonder if the urban infrastructure of modern era Boston could conceivably fair very well at all given a redux of 1938. How about splitting the Prudential in half and having it flown through the air before flopping on it's side. Perhaps in Sci-Fi. Much more, Long Island. Hard to imagine much of the current real estate and general infrastructure being able to withstand Category 3 wind, let alone transporting those along at 40mph.

Every year as we approach mid August, and seemingly over the last 10 years we are always 1F warmer in the SST's in the Shelf Waters south of the NY Bite region, I imagine a category 3 hurricane zipping N and not weakening at all because it's 75+F water and the storm is moving at 45mph. None of the current anything from LI to Maine is anywhere close to prepared for such calamity. No one in those areas really comprehends what it would be like.

I think a number of members here and elsewhere will never forget the night of the Oct. snowstorm. I know I wont - I spent most of the night listening to "shotguns" going off all night as branches and trees were exploding apart.

That experience for many and the days and weeks that followed were enough to enter the subconscious and I believe that people are a little more prepared now than they were before. Irene helped in some ways because more people were prepared in October than in August. People saw the collapse of normalcy for at least a few days and they had to adjust. Once they adjusted, there was a new norm but it was not a collapse of life as we knew it.

I can't speak for more urban areas but in my neck of the woods I know more people are prepared now than they were. Having been a young adult during Gloria and being without power for over a week then, I can tell you that, at least in some respects, people (if only a little) are more prepared now than they were then. Post Irene and October I think even more so.

Yes, a true Cat. 3 will be catastrophic when it does hit (and it will some day) but hopefully the memories and lessons of 2011 will be on peoples minds.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1935 Labor Day hurricane...its the earliest of the 3 known cat 5s to hit the US.

yeah..just fixed my post