When SNE Gets Hit Again by a Hurricane

[vortex95]

There are still repercussions about TS Irene here last August in the form of Natl Grid

getting fined $10M for not addressing the power outages promptly and preparing for

things beforehand. It got even worse after the late Oct record snowstorm here.

The thing is I feel, neither the public, nor Natl Grid, nor the state, have a good grip

idea what a 'real' TC will do here. Irene was bad, but only really as much as

the amount of people and infrastructure in its way (for the wind at least), which has

little to do with weather. It had been 26 years since a decent TC (Gloria) had taken

such a track, moving over western Long Island into CT, putting almost all of southern

New England in the "windy" sector. So you had 26 years w/o a good "cleaning"

of the trees and add in the population and infrastructure growth. The power

outages were huge and extended with Irene, but this was done with only sustained

30-35 mph winds with gusts 60-65 mph overall in inland areas. That doesn't sound like

that much, either to a meteorologist or the public, and as far as extremes go, it really

isn't much, and the region get many strong nor'easters that give us winds like that.

However, there are two key differences, 1) trees in full leaf leads to much more

frictional drag so a lot more come down or break, and 2) the unfrozen ground leads to a

lot more trees being uprooted that would not uproot in the cold season. So Irene was a

power disaster here despite it being rather low end for wind as far as historical TCs go.

Gloria in 1985 was a strong Cat 1 (80 kt) at landfall just a little E of where Irene came ashore.

Gloria had to plow through a stationary front over the area, unlike Irene. Still it produced

widespread sustained 40-50 mph with gusts 70-80 mph inland, and the tree damage was

unlike anything I have ever seen, as well as wind. It wasn't complete, but by far the most

trees I have seen down in my area for an event (10 mi NW of BOS). It was worse in RI/CT

obviously, and some people were w/o power for 2 weeks in CT.

Ok, so what do you think will happen when a TC the equivalent of Gloria hits again?

Even worse, something on the scale of Carol from Aug 1954 or the Long Island Express

from Sept 1938? Irene will seem like a walk in the park. It is almost unimaginable the

what the impact will be, at least to the avg person, and you think people were ticked

with Irene due to no power up to 10 days, how about a month or more???

I'm thinking that after Irene and the Oct snowstorm here last year, the avg person

has a better idea of how bad it can get, and yes, the power companies will be

better prepared next time, but I fear due to how 'weak' Irene was, the shock and

awe of a Gloria type event or more will be so much stronger, people will lose perspective

and resort to wondering how it could possibly ever get SO bad in spite of Irene, and

subsequently cry foul and really be angered.

Problem is I see no way around this, regardless of how much we prepare.

As CoastalWx likes to say "discuss…".

[Skivt2]

The October storm was an eye opener in the Farmington valley. Many people have bought and installed generators. The difference there wa how cold it was as many people's houses went into the lower 40's and it was getting dark at about 5:15 pm. I actually worry more about the impact of a devisatating ice storm. When it's cold and dark generators go from a nice to have to being a life saver. Unfortunately what we saw was that gasoline is in very short supply when there is widespread destruction. Communication is also disrupted as cell towers only have about 24 hours of back up power. Cable based phones don't work in a power outage. I do think the experience we had last fall will have been valuable. You certainly can imagine society breaking down in short order when supplies are unavailable for an extended period.

[Damage In Tolland]

Agreed that people have no idea what is going to happen(maybe this year) when we get hit by a cat 2 or stronger cane. Irene and the Snowbomb will look like a day at the park. Some folks will be w/o power for months. This little bit of ridiculous tree trimming that CLP is doing is not going to do anything to help . It will in essence be like us living like the Amish people for weeks, perhaps even mnths. I envision folks in overalls, men with long beards, and children milking cows to survive.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The impact of the prodigious rain amounts from Irene were much more of a factor in W. Ma and S. Vt then the meek winds that got up this far.

A storm the strength of the 1938 hurricane would do catastrophic damage to W. New England. The Ct River Valley was sparsely populated at that time. The infrastructure has grown exponentially in size from Hartford up to Brattleboro. We indeed would be looking at months w/o power in some places and thousands of home destroyed by tree damage alone. It's estimated over 200 million (yes million) trees were brought down.

1938:

• 700 deaths, 708 injured
  
• 4,500 homes, cottages, farms destroyed; 15,000 damaged
  
• 26,000 destroyed automobiles
  
• 20,000 miles of electrical power and telephone lines downed
  
• 1,700 livestock and up to 750,000 chickens killed
  
• $2,610,000 worth of fishing boats, equipment, docks, and shore plants damaged or destroyed
  
• Half the entire apple crop destroyed at a cost of $2 million
  

[Guvna]

Agreed that people have no idea what is going to happen(maybe this year) when we get hit by a cat 2 or stronger cane. Irene and the Snowbomb will look like a day at the park. Some folks will be w/o power for months. This little bit of ridiculous tree trimming that CLP is doing is not going to do anything to help . It will in essence be like us living like the Amish people for weeks, perhaps even mnths. I envision folks in overalls, men with long beards, and children milking cows to survive.

I spoke to a worker from a West Virginia power company who was up to help after Irene and he said this would never happen down there. Trees are cut back a ways from the road to avoid such a disaster. You think we would cut trees back away from the roads here????? Yeah right!

[CoastalWx]

It is true...if the public is crying now about no power...they'll be thrown back into the Stone age if we ever get something like a Cat II into BDR. I drove around yesterday in areas south of BOS and there are so many trees over wires and what not....it's incredible. It's like that in many places in SNE. Companies are trying to trim limbs near the wires, but it won't help if a major limb or even part of the tree is snapped. Definitely a problem, but there is nothing anybody can do for now.

[Allsnow]

It is true...if the public is crying now about no power...they'll be thrown back into the Stone age if we ever get something like a Cat II into BDR. I drove around yesterday in areas south of BOS and there are so many trees over wires and what not....it's incredible. It's like that in many places in SNE. Companies are trying to trim limbs near the wires, but it won't help if a major limb or even part of the tree is snapped. Definitely a problem, but there is nothing anybody can do for now.

Since the snow and hurricane most jersey towns have brought in tree companys to cut back the tree line and everything hanging over power lines....they have done a great job here....a old lady got up in a council meeting saying its ruining the natural landscape. The crowd booed her and yelled u go 2 weeks without power lady! Lol

[CoastalWx]

Since the snow and hurricane most jersey towns have brought in tree companys to cut back the tree line and everything hanging over power lines....they have done a great job here....a old lady got up in a council meeting saying its ruining the natural landscape. The crowd booed her and yelled u go 2 weeks without power lady! Lol

Yeah the tree trimming helps even here....but there are a lot of old roads with large old trees all around the suburbs here. I also don't know how houses on the south coast will hold up. The new ones are made pretty well to withstand 90-100mph winds, but any stronger or houses that are older may have problems. The storm surge danger is an inherent issue too.

[Allsnow]

Yeah the tree trimming helps even here....but there are a lot of old roads with large old trees all around the suburbs here. I also don't know how houses on the south coast will hold up. The new ones are made pretty well to withstand 90-100mph winds, but any stronger or houses that are older may have problems. The storm surge danger is an inherent issue too.

Yeah cat 2 or higher all bets are off. Even a 92 or march 10 noreaster we will have problems....but for a wet snow or avg tstorm it will help....also everyone around here has generators now....lost power 2 weeks for oct and irene, it sucks so much.

[eekuasepinniW]

I live on a main road that gets priory restoration, so bring on a 1938 but hopefully it won't be a puny cat 3 this time.

[CoastalWx]

I live on a main road that gets priory restoration, so bring on a 1938 but hopefully it won't be a puny cat 3 this time.

No concerns about plants/greenhouse?

[Damage In Tolland]

I think most of us here want a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3

[eekuasepinniW]

No concerns about plants/greenhouse?

Would gladly give up both for a good hurricane. Plants grow back and greenhouses can be rebuilt.

[CoastalWx]

Would gladly give up both for a good hurricane. Plants grow back and greenhouses can be rebuilt.

This is true.

[Mr Torchey]

I think most of us here want a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3

absolutely

[dryslot]

Ice storm 1998 took care of most of the trees and limbs around power lines up here, CMP has a pretty good program of keeping things trimmed back as they had just came around this area again this year cutting growth back as to minimize power outages in storms

[CoastalWx]

Here is an example. My parents live on a sidestreet off this main road. The powerlines are on the left. You can't even tell except for a pole visible a little ways down on the left.

[dryslot]

Here is an example. My parents live on a sidestreet off this main road. The powerlines are on the left. You can't even tell except for a pole visible a little ways down on the left.

That's is a power outage waiting to happen right there......

[Ginx snewx]

Societal breakdown will be greatest in the highly populated Urban centers. We will have plenty of warning. Cash Gas, Generators, propane, ice, non persibles and water. Stock up 3 days in advance, if it recurves you will still have it. 1-2 weeks for a TS like Irene, 3-4 for a Gloria, 1-2 months for a 38.

[Ginx snewx]

That's is a power outage waiting to happen right there......

Sadly every street in countryside CT looks like that. Zero has been done around here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sadly every street in countryside CT SNE looks like that. Zero has been done around here.

fyp

[dryslot]

Sadly every street in countryside CT looks like that. Zero has been done around here.

I will admit that its not a pretty site having your trees cut back away from the power lines, My neighbor almost lost it when they trimmed 1 whole side of 2 of his maples that were facing the wires, Birches and any type of pine are the 2 biggest culprits and pines we have plenty of

[eekuasepinniW]

Sadly every street in countryside CT looks like that. Zero has been done around here.

What are they supposed to do? Go with the gut knee-jerk reaction and scalp everything above and within 30 feet of the powerlines until every road and neighborhood is a wide open prairie?

PSNH tried that up here about 10 years ago and faced relentless opposition.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not mind that

So overgrown in much of New England. In some areas way more grown in than 30 years ago

[Ginx snewx]

What are they supposed to do? Go with the gut knee-jerk reaction and scalp everything above and within 30 feet of the powerlines until every road and neighborhood is a wide open prairie?

PSNH tried that up here about 10 years ago and faced relentless opposition.

You are totally missing the point. Trees grow through power lines here, and yea cutting back 30 feet on overhanging is a good idea. Your exaggeration is noted. Just the overhanging stuff needs to be cut back. Not like we do not have enough. CT is at its highest forested level since statehood.

[eekuasepinniW]

You are totally missing the point. Trees grow through power lines here, and yea cutting back 30 feet on overhanging is a good idea. Your exaggeration is noted. Just the overhanging stuff needs to be cut back. Not like we do not have enough. CT is at its highest forested level since statehood.

Trees grow through power lines everywhere I've ever been that has trees. Trimming is seen as a cure for outages when it's not, though it is quite beneficial with ice storms since branches fall straight down. When I look at pictures of the damage from Irene, thunderstorms etc, I usually see full trees down across the road and no amount of trimming would have had any effect.

[Ginx snewx]

Trees grow through power lines everywhere I've ever been that has trees. Trimming is seen as a cure for outages when it's not, though it is quite beneficial with ice storm since branches fall straight down. When I look at pictures of the damage from Irene, thunderstorms etc, I usually see full trees down across the road and no amount of trimming would have had any effect.

True about whole trees but during Rocktober snow a great deal of damage was done by single branch damage. It is absurd to state that trimming and pruning trees around power lines is not beneficial to reducing outages.

[ORH_wxman]

People don't want to cut trees down...its not asthetically pleasing. They'll just have to deal with the outages when they come.

In the case of a hurricane landfalling, I doubt trimming would make a huge difference due to the reasons eek said...there's also a catch 22 involved where if you keep cutting down trees, your wind speeds at the surface will increase causing more direct wind damage to utility poles which can snap on their own pretty easily out in the open from winds of 80-100mph.

[CoastalWx]

Trees grow through power lines everywhere I've ever been that has trees. Trimming is seen as a cure for outages when it's not, though it is quite beneficial with ice storm since branches fall straight down. When I look at pictures of the damage from Irene, thunderstorms etc, I usually see full trees down across the road and no amount of trimming would have had any effect.

That's sort of what I mean. There isn't really anything you can do, so just deal with it. To be honest, I like trees and I wouldn't want to mow the area down because every 30 years I may lose power for 5 days. I've seen many roads in NH push the tree line back about 30' or so, but they can do that when there aren't any homes on those roads.

[Ginx snewx]

People don't want to cut trees down...its not asthetically pleasing. They'll just have to deal with the outages when they come.

In the case of a hurricane landfalling, I doubt trimming would make a huge difference due to the reasons eek said...there's also a catch 22 involved where if you keep cutting down trees, your wind speeds at the surface will increase causing more direct wind damage to utility poles which can snap on their own pretty easily out in the open from winds of 80-100mph.

Geezus Will we are not advocating a clear cutting. Just pruning overheads would be nice. I am a tree hugger too but it's absurd now.