Hurricane Season Reanalysis

[vortex95]

From a poster session at the last AMS Hurricane Conf.

http://home.comcast....alysis1954.jpeg

This is of interest b/c this is the year New England was in the crosshairs, and both Carol and Edna were

actually Cat 3s at landfall in SNE! It also describes well what exactly is being done and used for the

reanalysis. Some may contest this is altering history for an agenda here or the like, but I have been following

this project for the better part of a decade, and I think it is completely valid. Why not apply what we know now to

past events to correct the historical database? Who says we got it "right" the first time? Also, we were not nearly

as detailed/thorough in documentation for TCs in the past, simply b/c we didn't have the technology (i.e satellites)

and it was not quite as high priority compared to today. The same concept applies with tornadoes.

Note: the 1954 reanalysis data is not official yet.

For those not familiar with this project, here is an overview:

"The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project is an effort to extend and revise the National Hurricane Center's North Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT). Going back to 1851 and revisiting storms in more recent years, information on tropical cyclones is revised using an enhanced collection of historical meteorological data in the context of today's scientific understanding of hurricanes and analysis techniques."

Abstract for the poster session:

A preliminary reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database ("best track") for the 1954 hurricane season has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The 1954 hurricane season has been reanalyzed to include some new tropical cyclones, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America and the Caribbean for this season, which include Hurricanes Carol, Edna and Hazel.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, these recommendations had actually been published a while ago-- but it's cool to see them presented on that nice poster!

Traditionally, Carol and Edna have always been considered Cat-3 landfalls in NY/new England, so this study reaffirms the historic understanding. Interesting that they kept Hazel a Cat 4, but 1) only by the skin of its teeth (115 kt) and 2) only for NC (the SC impact is reduced to 3 since they were on the weaker side).

[LongIslandHurricanes]

Anyone know when the reanalysis will be completed for the years 1936-1943?

[HurricaneAndrew]

I think that 1936-43 is likely to be completely done and approved before 6/1/2013... and maybe even earlier than that.