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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Meteorological fall is here


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12z GFS puts out .50" of precip as snow for SYR, 1.12" for RME, .73" for ALB and .41" for GFL. The higher precip at RME seems to be a result of lake enhancement under northwest flow, with areas farther east changing over to rain or freezing rain.

This run has some more confluence at 500 mb over Eastern Quebec than 00z which helps keep the cold air in place. The southern stream shortwave is also more vigorous than the depiction from the 00z run, with better phasing with the northern stream. This results in a much stronger surface cyclone, below 984 mb south of Long Island at 108 hrs.

Assuming the 12z run of the Euro stays relatively consistent, consensus seems to be building for some type of snow or mixed rain event sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

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The 12Z Euro nails Upstate with snow, the heaviest focused more out toward I-81 I think.

12z GFS puts out .50" of precip as snow for SYR, 1.12" for RME, .73" for ALB and .41" for GFL. The higher precip at RME seems to be a result of lake enhancement under northwest flow, with areas farther east changing over to rain or freezing rain.

This run has some more confluence at 500 mb over Eastern Quebec than 00z which helps keep the cold air in place. The southern stream shortwave is also more vigorous than the depiction from the 00z run, with better phasing with the northern stream. This results in a much stronger surface cyclone, below 984 mb south of Long Island at 108 hrs.

Assuming the 12z run of the Euro stays relatively consistent, consensus seems to be building for some type of snow or mixed rain event sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

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Ahhh....my lifelong hometown up until '07.....snow magnet for 280-295 flow...

It seems like they can also do pretty well with a northwest flow, given the larger fetch from that bay at the mouth of the St. Laurence. Here in Oswego, we usually get screwed by the shorter fetch from that peninsula on the north shore of the lake under northwest flow.

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sucks we may be near 60 by next weekend.

I'm actually ok with that. It will be the perfect weekend to completely secure and decomission the yard for the year.

It's also indicative of an amplified pattern with big winds and arctic air to follow. Love these transitional seasons.

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OSUwx i'm just down the road from you in Hannibal and we are seeing some light snow here also this morning... Small coating of snow on everyone's roofs around here and even a little dusting in some parts of the lawn's... it's a start of hopefully a great winter for around here. I ride snowmobile so i'm ready to ride.

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OSUwx i'm just down the road from you in Hannibal and we are seeing some light snow here also this morning... Small coating of snow on everyone's roofs around here and even a little dusting in some parts of the lawn's... it's a start of hopefully a great winter for around here. I ride snowmobile so i'm ready to ride.

No accumulation here, but we've had flurries for the last few hours. Definitely the coldest air so far this season with 850 mb temperatures around -10 C.

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It's kind of an apples to oranges comparison as the image from this year is severely limited due to cloud cover.

...yeah, sorry- my fault. Just wanted to get the website links in and didn't get the right ones.This is the site I catch lake temps at to watch the rate of temperature fall. It still looks like we may see a cool lake before snow season starts. Not very promising for snow lovers.

Today- http://www.coastwatc...v08_1408EDT.gif

2011- http://www.coastwatc...v08_1616EDT.gif

2010- http://www.coastwatc...v08_1412EST.gif

2009- http://www.coastwatc...v08_1316EST.gif

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6+ inches of snow on the beach on Long Island on November 7. And a "trace" thus far at BGM. I know it's VERY early, but the weather (perhaps the climate) REALLY is changing.

You should try living here in the Mid-Hudson Valley the past 3 yrs.. Non-stop fringe city! Something is up with all these sharp gradient events.. Never in my life have I seen soo many in such a short span.

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