toronto blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol Euro and GFS are pretty big on wind in western and CNY...could be really good, even all the way over here. That 850 jet cranks overhead as the low retrogrades. Storm force winds and hurricane force gusts per the gfs on Lake Ontario. Euro also has 45-50 kt sustained on the lakes on the wunderground graphics. What about rain potential? 18z GFS would seem to indicate about 3-6'' here. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What about rain potential? 18z GFS would seem to indicate about 3-6'' here. Is that correct? I hope not...that's a lot of rain for these parts. I so wish this was a month later with more cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope not...that's a lot of rain for these parts. I so wish this was a month later with more cold air... was thinking that too. Sucks almost none of the models show snow for us anymore. The early runs of the Euro were awesome showing 1-2'+ for us. Itll still be fun to watch from a meteorlogical perspective but man does it suck we wnt be seeing anysnow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 was thinking that too. Sucks almost none of the models show snow for us anymore. The early runs of the Euro were awesome showing 1-2'+ for us. Itll still be fun to watch from a meteorlogical perspective but man does it suck we wnt be seeing anysnow from this. I will admit having the remenants of a hurricane giving you snow would be sick but it's only the end of october. Plenty of winter to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NWS mentioning 20 foot waves on L Ontario south shore...Can't let that happen and not get up there to check it out. Anyone have suggestions for lakeshore public access in Niagara County? I'm thinking maybe Krull County Park in Olcott or Wilson Tuscorara Park in Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NWS mentioning 20 foot waves on L Ontario south shore...Can't let that happen and not get up there to check it out. Anyone have suggestions for lakeshore public access in Niagara County? I'm thinking maybe Krull County Park in Olcott or Wilson Tuscorara Park in Wilson. Yeah it looks like there will be significant waves on the south shore of Lake Ontario. I don't really know the area around the western part of the lake but places like Sodus Bay and Fair Haven Beach will likely flood, especially with a larger fetch of water with a NE-NNE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Should be glad it's not a west wind along the lake. The waves will still be huge Mon & Tues. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1004 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... • WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS WITH A FEW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. • WAVES...AS HIGH AS 16 TO 22 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Nor'Easter next week maybe?? PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 947 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012 VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012 ...NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY... GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE ===================================== A DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL HELP AMPLIFY A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND MAINTAIN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEA...AND IN GENERAL...EVEN MUCH OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE PRESSURES/FRONTS AND 500 MB PROGS WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY AND UTILIZED GUIDANCE THAT OFFERED MAX SOLUTION CLUSTERING. WEATHER IMPACTS =============== AS A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR SKIRMISHES OF RAINS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW BATCHES OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ARE MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO STREAK THROUGH THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY DIGS IN BEHIND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BUT COMMONLY AGREE THAT DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR MON-THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND. INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND (AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF A MORE WESTERLY TRACK VERIFIES) TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN HURRICANE SANDY AND PRODUCE IMPACTS MUCH LESS EXTREME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE REGION MOST STRONGLY IMPACTED BY SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Nor'Easter next week maybe?? PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 947 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012 VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012 ...NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY... GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE ===================================== A DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL HELP AMPLIFY A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND MAINTAIN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEA...AND IN GENERAL...EVEN MUCH OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE PRESSURES/FRONTS AND 500 MB PROGS WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY AND UTILIZED GUIDANCE THAT OFFERED MAX SOLUTION CLUSTERING. WEATHER IMPACTS =============== AS A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR SKIRMISHES OF RAINS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW BATCHES OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ARE MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO STREAK THROUGH THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY DIGS IN BEHIND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BUT COMMONLY AGREE THAT DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR MON-THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND. INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND (AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF A MORE WESTERLY TRACK VERIFIES) TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN HURRICANE SANDY AND PRODUCE IMPACTS MUCH LESS EXTREME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE REGION MOST STRONGLY IMPACTED BY SANDY. Euro, verbatium would give CNY a 10-14" snowstorm middle of next week......it did nail Sandy this far in advance! Maybe the Upstate noreaster drought is about to end!! <hotlinked> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Euro, verbatium would give CNY a 10-14" snowstorm middle of next week......it did nail Sandy this far in advance! Maybe the Upstate noreaster drought is about to end!! Wont get excited just yet. Though I'm putting the lawn mower away, getting the snow blower out and dusting the cobwebs off the snowboard & stick. Hey, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Sure seems like were getting into a much more exciting pattern than the last several months (or even year + , if you wanna go back through last winter which to me was very boring) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Looking at the past snowfall for SYR during warm ENSO periods, there seems to be a slightly average higher seasonal total than the average 50 year snowfall. I used the ONI index for the DJF period, including all values that were between 0 and +0.7 since that seems to be the most likely range for this winter. The average snowfall for the weak, warm ENSO periods is about half a standard deviation above the 50 year average. Obviously the sample size is a bit small, but this would favor maybe a slightly higher probability for an above average snowfall season this year for CNY. I haven't looked but I would guess that the same trend would show up for BUF and ROC snowfall during warm ENSO periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 18z GFS looks to give us another decent shot of wintry weather here. I think so long as we dont see the trough go negative too early, the ingredients seem to be in place for a decent storm. Knowing the models, this will probably change by tomorrow morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Looking at the past snowfall for SYR during warm ENSO periods, there seems to be a slightly average higher seasonal total than the average 50 year snowfall. I used the ONI index for the DJF period, including all values that were between 0 and +0.7 since that seems to be the most likely range for this winter. The average snowfall for the weak, warm ENSO periods is about half a standard deviation above the 50 year average. Obviously the sample size is a bit small, but this would favor maybe a slightly higher probability for an above average snowfall season this year for CNY. I haven't looked but I would guess that the same trend would show up for BUF and ROC snowfall during warm ENSO periods. Good stuff! Yeah, weak Nino's are "good" for us Upstaters....anything too extreme either way seems to have negative impacts on snowfall.... Looking for about 150" + 15" this year in SYR, from what I can see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Good stuff! Yeah, weak Nino's are "good" for us Upstaters....anything too extreme either way seems to have negative impacts on snowfall.... Looking for about 150" + 15" this year in SYR, from what I can see... what you think for BUF? 120" +- 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 what you think for BUF? 120" +- 15" At the airport....probably a bit less...I'm expecting a bit more of a NW'erly mean wind component over the winter (LES to be a bit less to the NE of the lakes, thus Buffalo seeing a bit less LES than normal)...it's something I looked at about 5 years ago over at Eastern..but, I see this also as a clipper type year with a few chances as "inland runners" for Upstate PA/NY, with a bit of an emphasis out our way (W/C NYS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 At the airport....probably a bit less...I'm expecting a bit more of a NW'erly mean wind component over the winter (LES to be a bit less to the NE of the lakes, thus Buffalo seeing a bit less LES than normal)...it's something I looked at about 5 years ago over at Eastern..but, I see this also as a clipper type year with a few chances as "inland runners" for Upstate PA/NY, with a bit of an emphasis out our way (W/C NYS) NW's = Jackpot possibilities for me! We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 NW's = Jackpot possibilities for me! We'll see. i need a good wsw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Got some snow showers earlier today in Madison County. Radar looks promising for some more with a good flow off the lake and temps in the mid 30's NWS has snow showers over the next couple days before we go into the freezer later down the road (35/22 on Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Seeing flurries at home now in Central Oneida County. 37° right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Just rain here at 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Seeing flurries at home now in Central Oneida County. 37° right now. Had some wet flakes mixing with the rain this morning but just had a rain shower pass through. Should see some "real" snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 no snow here yet but it is only 39 degrees. hoping for my real first flakes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 NOAA doesnt have us getting out of the 30's for the next 5 days with snow and rain showers. Winter is almost here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Had some wet flakes mixing with the rain this morning but just had a rain shower pass through. Should see some "real" snow tonight. Got home at 3:00 and got to watch it snow all afternoon, even enough to whiten the grass somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well, woke up to a coating on the ground and moderate snow in the air. I'm new to the region, but it looks like that this type of NWly flow is perfect for Madison County in terms of lake effect. Love watching the radar image, even if it isnt heavy snow, hopefully its a good sign for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Took a drive this morning to Parish in Eastern Oswego County where there was some moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Nothing really sticking as the BL is a bit warm, mid and upper levels are plenty cold though. Still not bad for early november i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm ready for snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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