BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Pretty Epic band of Lake Effect rain going on right now just north of Buffalo. Should be drifting south through the area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Pretty Epic band of Lake Effect rain going on right now just north of Buffalo. Should be drifting south through the area tonight. Yea as that surface shortwave passes to the east, winds will become more southwesterly to west-southwesterly. There also looks like there was some lightning detected over the center of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 "Pretty epic" late-season, late-night thunderstorm through here last night. Absolutely torrential rain. Quite unusual weather. But there doesn't seem to be anybody else on this board from my part of NYS to comment on this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Getting heavy graupel now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like some nice upslope precip now in WNY. Im right on the edge being about 250 ft higher than Buffalo itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like some nice upslope precip now in WNY. Im right on the edge being about 250 ft higher than Buffalo itself. 142 feet higher then the Buffalo airport is negligible at best. That difference does not cause up-slope btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 142 feet higher then the Buffalo airport is negligible at best. That difference does not cause up-slope btw. i was talking about downtown BUF near the lake which is at or below 600 feet. Definitly had that upslope look to it as precip was happening right where the elevation increases are. The heaviest rain was to my S and E where the elevation is higher than it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't believe nobody's talking about this in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't believe nobody's talking about this in this thread... its the GFS at hr 216 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Shhhhh... don't want to scare it away. Pretty far out, but something fun to watch at least. Can't believe nobody's talking about this in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro has a bomb as well. its the GFS at hr 216 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Quite enjoyable reading the New England forum about this. Eh, it's too far out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro has a bomb as well. CMC as well. This storm would be fricken nuts. Haloween day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Quite enjoyable reading the New England forum about this. Eh, it's too far out for now. Yeah there is a ton of uncertainty in this situation. In order for Sandy to become an intense extratropical low and track near the east coast, it has to phase with a trough forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and southeast. Considering the average NHC track error is about 250 miles at 5 days out, a forecast 7 days out is probably going to have an even greater error meaning that a phase is more uncertain. A weak ridge forecast to be northeast of Sandy may guide the system towards to the coast, depending on its strength. There is also uncertainty in the amplitude and speed of the trough which could depend on how much a frontal wave deepens ahead of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah there is a ton of uncertainty in this situation. In order for Sandy to become an intense extratropical low and track near the east coast, it has to phase with a trough forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and southeast. Considering the average NHC track error is about 250 miles at 5 days out, a forecast 7 days out is probably going to have an even greater error meaning that a phase is more uncertain. A weak ridge forecast to be northeast of Sandy may guide the system towards to the coast, depending on its strength. There is also uncertainty in the amplitude and speed of the trough which could depend on how much a frontal wave deepens ahead of the trough. if this were to happen Wed have to call it the perfect storm part duex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Piece #1 of the puzzle is there now with TD #18. Still models are all over the place. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 well the cmc bombs of out at 939mb before reaching the NE with it being at 944mb over S NJ lmfao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 well the cmc bombs of out at 939mb before reaching the NE with it being at 944mb over S NJ lmfao. 2012!!! DUN DUN DUN!!! HOLY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Latest Euro has landfall on Eastern Long Island with significant snowfall for the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Latest Euro has landfall on Eastern Long Island with significant snowfall for the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and the southern tier. Thanks for the update. That New England discussion was making me dizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Thanks for the update. That New England discussion was making me dizzy. Yeah, much quieter here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 So would that be Athena (TWC Name) or Sandy (NHC Name)??? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 00z Euro has Sandy phasing with the trough over the midwest and making landfall in Central NJ. It gives most of WNY from west of ROC down through the shore of Lake Erie and into BGM over 1 inch of liquid equivalent frozen precip. The higher terrain of the Chautauqua ridge gets over 3 inches of frozen precip. The 06z GFS does not phase Sandy with the trough, however it still produces an interesting scenario. An inverted surface trough is forecast by the model to develop as the upper level trough becomes more amplified and negatively tilted. This leads to rising motion along the front associated with the upper level trough, with plenty of moisture being tapped from Sandy. The inverted surface trough then deepens some to form a surface low which retrogrades into Northern NY. This scenario also produces frozen precip with the BUFKIT profile for Jamestown showing 1 inch of liquid equivalent snowfall. The GFS seems like more of a lake enhancement situation with some dynamic cooling enhanced by the right entrance region of a south-north oriented 250 mb jet. The Euro shows more of a synoptic event, with maybe some lake enhancement at the end. The GGEM has a similar solution to the GFS, with Sandy tracking out to sea and a secondary low developing off the coast of New England. Right now, it seems like the Euro has more support from the ensembles and has been fairly consistent in phasing the storm. However, the GFS scenario or something in between such as a later phase than the Euro could also occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, IMO, it's ALMOST game on for the W. Southern Tier and Northern PA hills.....snow from a former hurricane!!!!....only from the dreams of a child!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I hope non-weenies take it seriously. They've been burned a few times on this hype-type storms. I can't believe some of the forecasts and the amount of rain and winds for here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This situation is looking to become a potential historic storm for many. Once that energy in the Pacific gets onshore, the models will really start to hone in on the track. As a bit of a snow hound, I'm hoping more cold air gets pulled into the action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, IMO, it's ALMOST game on for the W. Southern Tier and Northern PA hills.....snow from a former hurricane!!!!....only from the dreams of a child!!! im hoping for a slight track east. But even if it didnt move east I think the dynamic cooling of the column may give me some snow here at 880 ft. Obviously not all snow but prob the first real flakes and maybe accumulation if the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm just going to assume we are all speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm just going to assume we are all speechless. I have been outside building the Ark and gathering animals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm just going to assume we are all speechless. lol Euro and GFS are pretty big on wind in western and CNY...could be really good, even all the way over here. That 850 jet cranks overhead as the low retrogrades. Storm force winds and hurricane force gusts per the gfs on Lake Ontario. Euro also has 45-50 kt sustained on the lakes on the wunderground graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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