lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 September finished with 4.08" of rain here, around average. Leaves are well on their way to changing, and a few cool days would probably bring things to near peak. On a side note, I noticed a ton of roadkill while running today. In only 4-4.5 miles I saw at least 12-13 dead animals on my side of the road. This is my 4th year running and I've never seen this much. finished 5.06" here. Pretty well above average. Grass is so green its nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Snow has made it into the forcast here: Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Columbus Day A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Peak leaf season is underway right now. Last weekend may have been the best, but it should still be nice this coming weekend. More and more bare trees showing up which ruins the foliage to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Approaching peak here Sunday's forecast now has a high of 48 (first sub 50 high of the year) and a low of 34 Winter is o so close.....maybe first flakes too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I've done a facelift to the Wx4cast blog....it now has many pages of weather data. http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Hey, Flying MXZ: Where is that forecast? Not BGM, right? I am training for the marathon and run the rail trail from Bloomville past Stamford and back a couple of weekends in a row. Do you live above that? There is an open stretch that is just gorgeous. While I wanted to soak it all in, you have to look down for loose rocks and sticks. I agree The leaves are really brilliant from Kortright to Stamford, not as brilliant, but def. peaking, in Delhi/Andes and then more green down 28 toward Ulster Country. Snow has made it into the forcast here: Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Columbus Day A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Peak leaf season is underway right now. Last weekend may have been the best, but it should still be nice this coming weekend. More and more bare trees showing up which ruins the foliage to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Socked in with fog and drizzle here so far today and 61 murky degrees. The forecast highs around 70 will never happen unless this lifts. Tomorrow looks pretty wet now. Snow has made it into the forcast here: Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Columbus Day A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Peak leaf season is underway right now. Last weekend may have been the best, but it should still be nice this coming weekend. More and more bare trees showing up which ruins the foliage to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 That's a nice stretch. I did a hike along it last year from Bloomville to Hobart. Then I have done the trail from Stamford to Grand Gorge also. I did that stretch back in October '08 just after the freak early season snowstorm where they got over a foot, maybe 18". Hey, Flying MXZ: Where is that forecast? Not BGM, right? I am training for the marathon and run the rail trail from Bloomville past Stamford and back a couple of weekends in a row. Do you live above that? There is an open stretch that is just gorgeous. While I wanted to soak it all in, you have to look down for loose rocks and sticks. I agree The leaves are really brilliant from Kortright to Stamford, not as brilliant, but def. peaking, in Delhi/Andes and then more green down 28 toward Ulster Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Storm over the weekend looks to be too warm for most places. Thickness is high and surface temps are in the mid to upper 30's although low 850's may indicate some sleet or other wintry precip. Snow looks to be reserved for the highest elevations of NY/VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 That's a nice stretch. I did a hike along it last year from Bloomville to Hobart. Then I have done the trail from Stamford to Grand Gorge also. I did that stretch back in October '08 just after the freak early season snowstorm where they got over a foot, maybe 18". That is the trail that I frequent most of the time, but only Roxbury is included, it goes along Rt 30 Big bust on temps here, it was supposed to get up to 77 today, we are only in the lower 60's right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Right...the trail goes all the way to Roxbury. We ran 19 miles in all, which really could have been most if not all of the trail, but we needed the car, so we had to do an out and back. Have you ever been on the Big Pond to Little Pond trail--that is a great hike. So is Pakatakan. I remember that Oct 08 storm. I left in the rain, knowing it was coming, but I had to get back to the City. I was so upset to miss it...especially because it wasn't initially predicted, and then suddenly WSW were issued. Those are the best kind. On my way home, I saw a few stray flaked on Rte 206 between the Resevior and Roscoe in Sullivan County. That is the trail that I frequent most of the time, but only Roxbury is included, it goes along Rt 30 Big bust on temps here, it was supposed to get up to 77 today, we are only in the lower 60's right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Hey, Flying MXZ: Where is that forecast? Not BGM, right? I am training for the marathon and run the rail trail from Bloomville past Stamford and back a couple of weekends in a row. Do you live above that? There is an open stretch that is just gorgeous. While I wanted to soak it all in, you have to look down for loose rocks and sticks. I agree The leaves are really brilliant from Kortright to Stamford, not as brilliant, but def. peaking, in Delhi/Andes and then more green down 28 toward Ulster Country. That forcast was for my house from the NWS at BGM. Still there as of now: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.416930259908774&lon=-74.78633880615234&site=bgm&unit=0&lg=&FcstType=text I live ~7 miles North of Bloomville in Doonans Corners. I actually live near the same old RR line, but it is private property there and not really accessable. I snowmobile on that trail quite a bit when we have snow but it is fairly boring. I have biked it several times from Bloomville to Stamford and it is nice on a bike. I bet the open stretch you are talking about is at Hanselmens farm and the mountains from there are beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Just a final note...It isn't fair to compare the dates to the two storms in an absolute fashion since Buffalo's climate and NJ/NYC/SNE climate are distinctly different. It's much more rare to get significant snow in October and November downstate than it is Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Also I have seen some people trying to compare last years 10/28/29? storm to 10/4/87. I know last years storm was a much higher impact event, but I still think to get a couple feet of snow and 6" down to sea level on 10/4 is the ultimate early season event around here. Just a final note...It isn't fair to compare the dates to the two storms in an absolute fashion since Buffalo's climate and NJ/NYC/SNE climate are distinctly different. It's much more rare to get significant snow in October and November downstate than it is Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Latest euro is suggesting some pretty cold air may be over the region around October 12th, with 850 mb temperatures around -7C for western and central new york and 1000-850 mb thicknesses below 1300 m. The GFS is a bit warmer with 850 temperatures around -6C. Both models have northwest flow on the backside of a clipper system which would trigger some lake effect showers. The low elevations at this time would probably be a little too warm for snow, but the higher terrain might see some flakes. We'll see if the models stay consistent with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I read an article on Syracuse.com about a new "lake effect" book written by a professor at SU. Might be an interesting read, especially this time of year when the lake effect snow juices start flowing again: http://www.markmonmo...nows_111094.htm; http://syracuseunive...ake-effect.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Latest euro is suggesting some pretty cold air may be over the region around October 12th, with 850 mb temperatures around -7C for western and central new york and 1000-850 mb thicknesses below 1300 m. The GFS is a bit warmer with 850 temperatures around -6C. Both models have northwest flow on the backside of a clipper system which would trigger some lake effect showers. The low elevations at this time would probably be a little too warm for snow, but the higher terrain might see some flakes. We'll see if the models stay consistent with this pattern. Agreed, the Euro is notably more aggressive with the cold air than the GFS during that time frame, although the GFS only backed off from the cold recently. The key is where the preceding sw tracks and how strong it gets before pulling up to the northeast of us. The stronger it is and more it digs, the more cold air we can pull down behind it. Most areas still searching for that first freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Also I have seen some people trying to compare last years 10/28/29? storm to 10/4/87. I know last years storm was a much higher impact event, but I still think to get a couple feet of snow and 6" down to sea level on 10/4 is the ultimate early season event around here. I still disagree..............For the lake event, you needed a very unseasonably cold airmass to travel across a long fetch of warm water. For the coastal, you needed an unseasonably cold airmass to coinside with a strong coastal storm in October which took a perfect track to nail areas furthest south in the region possible to receive accumulating snow. We have problems in the dead of winter getting storms to meet up with fresh cold, storm track, warm layer taint etc....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I still disagree..............For the lake event, you needed a very unseasonably cold airmass to travel across a long fetch of warm water. For the coastal, you needed an unseasonably cold airmass to coinside with a strong coastal storm in October which took a perfect track to nail areas furthest south in the region possible to receive accumulating snow. We have problems in the dead of winter getting storms to meet up with fresh cold, storm track, warm layer taint etc....... 10/4/87 wasn't lake effect. It was a damaging eastern NY snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I still disagree..............For the lake event, you needed a very unseasonably cold airmass to travel across a long fetch of warm water. For the coastal, you needed an unseasonably cold airmass to coinside with a strong coastal storm in October which took a perfect track to nail areas furthest south in the region possible to receive accumulating snow. We have problems in the dead of winter getting storms to meet up with fresh cold, storm track, warm layer taint etc....... people in nor'easter country generally diminish the sufficient requirements for heavy les to occur. It's not just as simple as cold air over warm water. If it were, there'd be a heck of a lot more of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 people in nor'easter country generally diminish the sufficient requirements for heavy les to occur. It's not just as simple as cold air over warm water. If it were, there'd be a heck of a lot more of LES. I Maybe I simplfied it too much but it was to make a point that even if the cold air is around downstate, there are more pieces of the puzzle that have to come together for a large snowstorm to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 10/4/87 wasn't lake effect. It was a damaging eastern NY snowstorm. My bad, didn't look at the date, I thought we were still comparing the Oct. lake effect from a couple of years ago. The 87 storm was Capital District centered so I didn't experience that one living on Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Cant believe no one has commented on that pretty impressive lake effect band coming off Lake Ontario. http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TYX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1349573825&lat=43.45289993&lon=-76.50402069&label=Oswego%2C+NY&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Not that uncommon kid! Anytime past mid-September we can get these patterns, it's like Lake Ontario is trying to make its way onshore.... Days and days with the Sun visible only at sunrise and sunset below the ceiling, and with the huge billows of LE migrating with the breeze. There's even a 'crack the whip effect' as the flow slows after falling down the escarpment toward the Adirondacks. Sept. thru Nov. monthly precip. figures +7" aren't unusual within the region, but it's so localized it's not 'news'. The hotspots on the radar you've got posted are areas of local topography or flow that usually get hit the hardest during any given event. It's a great place to live for weather fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Got down to the middle 30's here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 got down to 35 here last night. just a touch of frost this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 got down to 35 here last night. just a touch of frost this morning. No frost here, it was too windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 34 here this am with a decent frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 31° for a low, then the clouds returned. Griffiss 32 so the official growing season is still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 34 for a low, first freeze friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The clouds kept us from dropping below 33 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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