Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Meteorological fall is here

[lakeeffectkid383]

I actually believe you. You know your **** well enough to not say something like that.... If only we only had to wait until October!

Anyway, we are starting to get close now though...October 12th is only a little over 2 weeks away. Now thats a benchmark storm of a lifetime.

if only everyone on this board could have experienced that storm. Truly a once in a lifetime storm. Some think that Snowtober 2011 was as bad or worse but it wasn't even close.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Coming down in buckets here.

[woolymammoth]

Any of you METS or serious amateurs ready to take a stab at a winter outlook? Even a very prelim one? I am, of course, particularly interested in the S. Tier of NYS. I know a lot of us are just hoping for a decent winter after last year.....

[snywx]

if only everyone on this board could have experienced that storm. Truly a once in a lifetime storm. Some think that Snowtober 2011 was as bad or worse but it wasn't even close.

No offense dude but last yrs october snowstorm tops the 06' event by a large margin. All you have to do is look at how much snow fell in such a large populated area and its not even close. 1-2ft from NNJ to NH in October! lol.. Cmon Now that was a once in a lifetime event! Trust me

[DeltaT13]

No offense dude but last yrs october snowstorm tops the 06' event by a large margin. All you have to do is look at how much snow fell in such a large populated area and its not even close. 1-2ft from NNJ to NH in October! lol.. Cmon Now that was a once in a lifetime event! Trust me

Ignorance can be fun, but around here we prefere reality. Right out of the gates, you are comparing apples to oranges. One event is a very large synoptic storm, while the other is an exceedingly localized mesoscale event. However, if you want to compare some basic meteorological parameters and stats of these storms...I think the Buffalo event trumps the halloween storm hands down

• The Buffalo storm occurred a full two and half weeks earlier than the Tri-state storm. (Right here, the debate is already over in my book)
  
  • This is also a big deal as trees were not only in full foliage, they were still almost completely green!
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Honestly, the biggest reason these storms arent comparable is because of the date. Do you fully understand how rare it is to have a storm that intense that early in the season. A halloween storm is orders of magnitude more likely that what happened in Buffalo. Good try downstaters, but that storm comes up short.

If you don't know, then you don't know.

[eduggs]

Ignorance can be fun, but around here we prefere reality. Right out of the gates, you are comparing apples to oranges. One event is a very large synoptic storm, while the other is an exceedingly localized mesoscale event. However, if you want to compare some basic meteorological parameters and stats of these storms...I think the Buffalo event trumps the halloween storm hands down

• The Buffalo storm occurred a full two and half weeks earlier than the Tri-state storm. (Right here, the debate is already over in my book)
  
  • This is also a big deal as trees were not only in full foliage, they were still almost completely green!
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Honestly, the biggest reason these storms arent comparable is because of the date. Do you fully understand how rare it is to have a storm that intense that early in the season. A halloween storm is orders of magnitude more likely that what happened in Buffalo. Good try downstaters, but that storm comes up short.

If you don't know, then you don't know.

I agree on almost all counts. In particular, the dynamics and mesoscale nature of the 06' event set it apart. However, don't underestimate last year's late Oct snowstorm. I experienced it in SENY and can only describe what I saw locally: I measured between 18" and 24" with an average of 7:1 on full and mostly green folliage. Leaves were slow to change last year. This was the biggest snowstorm of the year obviously, and by far the biggest in recorded history for the months of October or November (locally). I'm not sure how you can say this kind of storm is more likely to happen when it had NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. Both were historic and unlikely to be approximated any time soon.

[West Point, NY]

Ignorance can be fun, but around here we prefere reality. Right out of the gates, you are comparing apples to oranges. One event is a very large synoptic storm, while the other is an exceedingly localized mesoscale event. However, if you want to compare some basic meteorological parameters and stats of these storms...I think the Buffalo event trumps the halloween storm hands down

• The Buffalo storm occurred a full two and half weeks earlier than the Tri-state storm. (Right here, the debate is already over in my book)
  
  • This is also a big deal as trees were not only in full foliage, they were still almost completely green!
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Honestly, the biggest reason these storms arent comparable is because of the date. Do you fully understand how rare it is to have a storm that intense that early in the season. A halloween storm is orders of magnitude more likely that what happened in Buffalo. Good try downstaters, but that storm comes up short.

If you don't know, then you don't know.

Keep in mind you had a fresh cold airmass ripping out of Canada causing your snow, while downstate we had a more modified cold where the storm itself had to manufacture it's own cold air to sustain the snow. Average temps were in the mid 50's (to near 60 around NYC). October snowstorms will occur again in your lifetime off the lakes. I will put money that I will never see 16 inches of snow at my house an hour north of NYC before Halloween in mine.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Ignorance can be fun, but around here we prefere reality. Right out of the gates, you are comparing apples to oranges. One event is a very large synoptic storm, while the other is an exceedingly localized mesoscale event. However, if you want to compare some basic meteorological parameters and stats of these storms...I think the Buffalo event trumps the halloween storm hands down

• The Buffalo storm occurred a full two and half weeks earlier than the Tri-state storm. (Right here, the debate is already over in my book)
  
  • This is also a big deal as trees were not only in full foliage, they were still almost completely green!
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Honestly, the biggest reason these storms arent comparable is because of the date. Do you fully understand how rare it is to have a storm that intense that early in the season. A halloween storm is orders of magnitude more likely that what happened in Buffalo. Good try downstaters, but that storm comes up short.

If you don't know, then you don't know.

+1

[eduggs]

I was looking at the statistics again and I really think it's more statistically unusual to get 6" of snow in the Bronx, NY in late October than it is to get 18" in Buffalo in the middle of October.

Climatologially, snow is not rare in Buffalo in October and significant snow is common in November. The 06' event was certainly remarkable, but it was only a few weeks early... otherwise it would be considered a relatively typical early season lake-effect event.

But in southern NY state, snow is rare even in November. NYC averages almost nothing, and even places like Poughkeepsie see accumulating snow in November only once every few years. October snow in these parts has happened only a few times in recorded history. In central park, before last winter, there were three Oct snowfalls since record keeping began - none greater than 1". Even in November, significant snow is rare. So last year's storm appears to have been more of an outlier with respect to historical monthly snowfall averages. It was roughly a month earlier than any significant snowstorm for these parts in 75 years.

Perspective on how these two different storms compare is obviously largely influenced by which we personally experienced.

[kulaginman]

I experienced the aftermath of the October 2006 storm in BUF as well as the October 2011 storm in Central MA. Both were extremely high impact...but the damage I saw in BUF was worse. I can't speak for CT/downstate NY/NJ but it would be hard to imagine anything worse than this photo taken in Amherst after the 2006 storm:

Keep in mind, the impact of the BUF storm was that much higher due to the fact that it essentially become a nowcasting event - even as the first flakes began falling, the accumulation was not expected to exceed a few inches. The severity of the storm almost came as a complete surprise, whereas the 2011 storm was very well forecast several days in advance.

Interestingly enough, check out one of the dates on today's CPC 8-14 day analog product:

[lakeeffectkid383]

I experienced the aftermath of the October 2006 storm in BUF as well as the October 2011 storm in Central MA. Both were extremely high impact...but the damage I saw in BUF was worse. I can't speak for CT/downstate NY/NJ but it would be hard to imagine anything worse than this photo taken in Amherst after the 2006 storm:

Keep in mind, the impact of the BUF storm was that much higher due to the fact that it essentially become a nowcasting event - even as the first flakes began falling, the accumulation was not expected to exceed a few inches. The severity of the storm almost came as a complete surprise, whereas the 2011 storm was very well forecast several days in advance.

Interestingly enough, check out one of the dates on today's CPC 8-14 day analog product:

thats smallwood drive isnt it?

[lakeeffectkid383]

I was looking at the statistics again and I really think it's more statistically unusual to get 6" of snow in the Bronx, NY in late October than it is to get 18" in Buffalo in the middle of October.

Climatologially, snow is not rare in Buffalo in October and significant snow is common in November. The 06' event was certainly remarkable, but it was only a few weeks early... otherwise it would be considered a relatively typical early season lake-effect event.

But in southern NY state, snow is rare even in November. NYC averages almost nothing, and even places like Poughkeepsie see accumulating snow in November only once every few years. October snow in these parts has happened only a few times in recorded history. In central park, before last winter, there were three Oct snowfalls since record keeping began - none greater than 1". Even in November, significant snow is rare. So last year's storm appears to have been more of an outlier with respect to historical monthly snowfall averages. It was roughly a month earlier than any significant snowstorm for these parts in 75 years.

Perspective on how these two different storms compare is obviously largely influenced by which we personally experienced.

Buffalo got 24" of snow not 18" just so ya know.

[eduggs]

Buffalo got 24" of snow not 18" just so ya know.

I believe there was a large gradient across the City. From roughly 10" to 26" across the metro and immediate suburbs. From what I remember, 24" reports were relatively isolated, even if the airport or whichever reporting station reported 24" (I used 18" as a representative figure). Nevertheless, that's a major snowstorm no matter the season, and considering the date, obviously historic. The incredible water equivalent also made it crippling.

I would guess that the Buffalo-region storm was more surprising and exciting to experience. But I still believe last year's storm was more unusual overall. I can also say it was the most surprising and exciting storm I have ever lived through personally.

[snywx]

Buffalo got 24" of snow not 18" just so ya know.

I know how intense lake effect can be let alone in October but you guys are being completely unrealistic of the historic nature of last yrs storm. In terms of the size of the area and amount of ppl it affected it can't be matched. Seeing flakes down here before Halloween is something to talk about let alone widespread 1-2ft locally 30".. Oh if I'm not mistaken most of our snow fell within a 12 hr period so quite a few places saw 2" hr rates for a good 8+ hrs.

[snywx]

I believe there was a large gradient across the City. From roughly 10" to 26" across the metro and immediate suburbs. From what I remember, 24" reports were relatively isolated, even if the airport or whichever reporting station reported 24" (I used 18" as a representative figure). Nevertheless, that's a major snowstorm no matter the season, and considering the date, obviously historic. The incredible water equivalent also made it crippling.

I would guess that the Buffalo-region storm was more surprising and exciting to experience. But I still believe last year's storm was more unusual overall. I can also say it was the most surprising and exciting storm I have ever lived through personally.

I agree.. Snowfall rates were comparable to the snowicane (2/26/10)..

[BuffaloWeather]

I lived through this in Amherst at my parents house. It was remarkable. We went for a walk around 8-9 pm that night and trees were exploding everywhere. My mom nearly got hit by one. Transformers lit up the entire night sky with snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. It felt like the end of the world to be honest, I have never seen anything like it. I really wish I took some videos of that storm, it was remarkable...I think everyone in the area lost 60-80% of our trees. =( We did not have power on my street for 14 days, although my dad used a generator to power our entire house. I have to agree with these folks though, the North eastern storm was so much more large, Lake effect events are so small and only affect very few people. Even though the impact in our area was HUGE, it does not compare with that storm in the northeast IMO at least. The leafs change later in the year over there as well, so even though it was 2 weeks earlier does not really make a difference since the leafs fall 2 weeks or more later in that region. MILLIONS of people were affected by that storm. While only a few hundred thousand in our region. I believe Amherst, Cheektowaga, Williamsville region had more damage then any other place affected by the Nor Easter, but it simply does not compare to that large of a storm affecting that many people so early in the year.

October Nor Easter

October Lake Effect Storm

[OSUmetstud]

I think in terms of raw meteorological anomalies (stdev of heights etc.) October 2006 exceeds October 2011. That being said, they are both probably in the neighborhood of 1 in 200 year events.

[kulaginman]

I believe Amherst, Cheektowaga, Williamsville region had more damage then any other place affected by the Nor Easter, but it simply does not compare to that large of a storm affecting that many people so early in the year.

I agree 100% with this post. There is no way the October 2006 storm in BUF measures up to the scope of last year's storm. But the damage in the hardest hit areas seems to have been worse in the 2006 event than what occurred during the 2011 event, and I will continue to believe that until I see pics to prove otherwise! The Amherst pic I posted on the previous page demonstrates that every single tree sustained damage during the 2006 storm, and I'm sure that anyone in the BUF area can vouch for the fact that this is absolutely not an exaggeration. It was the most unbelievable scene that I have ever personally witnessed.

The historical anomaly argument (which storm was more "out of season") is harder to say. Yes, climatology dictates that BUF can experience big snowstorms earlier in the season than downstate NY...but the 2006 storm also occurred more than half a month earlier than the 2011 storm. To put it in perspective, Buffalo's earliest 20"+ snowfall on record prior to 2006 was the "Millenium Snowburst" on 20 November 2000. So the October 2006 event pre-dated any previous 20"+ snowstorm by over five weeks!

[OSUmetstud]

I agree 100% with this post. There is no way the October 2006 storm in BUF measures up to the scope of last year's storm. But the damage in the hardest hit areas seems to have been worse in the 2006 event than what occurred during the 2011 event, and I will continue to believe that until I see pics to prove otherwise! The Amherst pic I posted on the previous page demonstrates that every single tree sustained damage during the 2006 storm, and I'm sure that anyone in the BUF area can vouch for the fact that this is absolutely not an exaggeration. It was the most unbelievable scene that I have ever personally witnessed.

The historical anomaly argument (which storm was more "out of season") is harder to say. Yes, climatology dictates that BUF can experience big snowstorms earlier in the season than downstate NY...but the 2006 storm also occurred more than half a month earlier than the 2011 storm. To put it in perspective, Buffalo's earliest 20"+ snowfall on record prior to 2006 was the "Millenium Snowburst" on 20 November 2000. So the October 2006 event pre-dated any previous 20"+ snowstorm by over five weeks!

I think places in northern CT were close to the damage in Buffalo but did not quite get there. Places near the coast had very wet snow but didn't quite get enough and places in western Mass which got the most had fairly dry snow since the 850 temps with that storm were quite low, especially for something in october and even colder than most december storms.

[OSUmetstud]

The pattern is quite anomalous next week, but I'm not seeing anything close to October 2006. The 500mb height anomalies were off the charts (-400m/5 to 6 stdevs from the mean) as the whole circumpolar vortex dropped into the lakes. BUF had the coldest 500mb temps of anywhere in the northern Hemisphere overnight on October 12th-13th. I think we have a good chance at frost next week...and maybe some flakes for higher elevations, but the forecast anomalies are world's apart. That event was so close to just being mainly rain, you could have a very similar set up but have 850 temps 1c warmer, and probably ended up with an inch of slush overnight.

[OSUmetstud]

I studied this storm extensively for my senior thesis at Oswego. Some interesting findings were that the precipitation type was independent of the lake temperature. We ran the WRF-ARW 5-class microphysics scheme at a 54 degree lake, 62 degree lake (actual) and a 66 degree lake. The precipitation type remained the same. However, the precipitation amount was reduced for both the 54 degree and the 66 degree lake. The 54 degree lake generated less precipitation overall, but the 66 degree lake causes the precipitation to be reduced in Buffalo as more fell over the lake as the synoptic flow reduced due to latent and sensible heating. For ****s and giggles we ran it over a 100 degree lake, too. Some snow still fell lol, but a subtropical storm formed over Lake Erie.

Also, the land breeze component of the circulation was important in maintaining cold low-level temperatures. The air directly modified by the lake would have a tendency to warm the boundary layer. We also showed that from the First Law of Thermodynamics, a very deep boundary layer, like the one prescent during the storm, allows the sensible heat from the lake to be dissipated through the deep layer as opposed to it's work being put into modifying the magnitude of the low-level temperatures in a shallow boundary layer.

[heavy_wx]

According to this ams conference paper,https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124750.pdf, there have been some other lake effect snow events in the Buffalo area occurring in mid October. The most damaging one occurred on October 18th 1930 with 1-2 feet of snow falling in the southern suburbs of Buffalo.

The annual climate summary for 1930 at Buffalo also mentions the event with the heaviest snow falling in the Dunkirk, Angola and Orchard Park areas.

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94753&_target2=Next+%3E

[scottmartin49]

• 
  
  • 
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Sweet smoking Jesus! I've lived through many NY/NE Nor'easters, Northern tier ice events, and Tug Hill LES, but....

6-1 @ 3-5? Really? Going over to BUF NWS to check the historical....

[BuffaloWeather]

Ignorance can be fun, but around here we prefere reality. Right out of the gates, you are comparing apples to oranges. One event is a very large synoptic storm, while the other is an exceedingly localized mesoscale event. However, if you want to compare some basic meteorological parameters and stats of these storms...I think the Buffalo event trumps the halloween storm hands down

• The Buffalo storm occurred a full two and half weeks earlier than the Tri-state storm. (Right here, the debate is already over in my book)
  
  • This is also a big deal as trees were not only in full foliage, they were still almost completely green!
    

  [*]Snowfall rates reached 3 to 5 inches an hour. (It is unlikely that downstate hit that number or even a fraction of it)

  [*]24 inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours. Most of it in two extremely heavy 4 hour bursts.

  [*]Snow to water equivalent was 6-1 (an unimaginable number)

  [*]12 hours of constant thunder snow with extremely vivid lightning (yeah, that happened...you've never experienced something like this)

  [*]Cloud tops (Equilibrium levels) were 30,000 feet (do you understand the dynmaics needed for that?)

Honestly, the biggest reason these storms arent comparable is because of the date. Do you fully understand how rare it is to have a storm that intense that early in the season. A halloween storm is orders of magnitude more likely that what happened in Buffalo. Good try downstaters, but that storm comes up short.

If you don't know, then you don't know.

http://www.erh.noaa..../stormsumb.html

In the above storm I witnessed 24 hours of constant lightning and thunder, it never seemed to end. It was absolutely incredible. One of the NWS directors wanted us to keep track of how many times we heard thunder. I filled the front and back of an entire sheet of paper. Must of been over 100 times over the course of those two days, absolutely incredible. Will never forget it.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Sweet smoking Jesus! I've lived through many NY/NE Nor'easters, Northern tier ice events, and Tug Hill LES, but....

6-1 @ 3-5? Really? Going over to BUF NWS to check the historical....

In affected areas, wet, heavy lake effect snow with a snow-water equivalent (SWE) ratio of between 6:1 and 12:1 (in comparison, the "powder" so prized by skiers is 25:1) and with a weight in excess of 9.8 pounds per square foot)[12] piled onto trees which were still in full leaf, leading to significant damage [to trees] on a scale usually associated with hurricanes.

From Wiki.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Sweet smoking Jesus! I've lived through many NY/NE Nor'easters, Northern tier ice events, and Tug Hill LES, but....

6-1 @ 3-5? Really? Going over to BUF NWS to check the historical....

read this paper by the NWS. 3rd page , 3rd paragraph right hand side...

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124750.pdf

"The lake snow, being the product of a ‘warm’ early season and favorable snow microphysics, resulted in a snowfall that featured unusually low snow to water ratios. During the first half of the event 6:1 ratios were measured at the NWS office at the Buffalo International Airport. As the cold air deepened overnight, this ratio increased to about 12:1."

[lakeeffectkid383]

http://www.erh.noaa..../stormsumb.html

In the above storm I witnessed 24 hours of constant lightning and thunder, it never seemed to end. It was absolutely incredible. One of the NWS directors wanted us to keep track of how many times we heard thunder. I filled the front and back of an entire sheet of paper. Must of been over 100 times over the course of those two days, absolutely incredible. Will never forget it.

yes the NWS recorded an average of 15 strikes an hour for 9 straight hours, with 14 hours consecutive lightning.

[scottmartin49]

Amazing...hadn't really thought of this level of organization developing off of a (relatively) small body of water, but I can recall distinctly, two fall storms down in southern Vermont where the smell of the ocean was clearly apparent in the rainfall- from over 100 miles away!

[Alpha5]

Looks like first freeze coming October 8th

[WNYLakeEffect]

September finished with 4.08" of rain here, around average. Leaves are well on their way to changing, and a few cool days would probably bring things to near peak.

On a side note, I noticed a ton of roadkill while running today. In only 4-4.5 miles I saw at least 12-13 dead animals on my side of the road. This is my 4th year running and I've never seen this much.