Snowlover76 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 FWIW the 18z GFS shows a huge slug of rain Tuesday-Wednesday for WNY with as much as 3" in spots. 18z NAM is in good agreement too. The rain is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Typical fall storm here. 1.5-2" of rain, moderate wind, leaves all over the roads. Much worse situation in Sullivan county with reports of 5"-7" of rain and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Only picked up exactly .50" here. Cold and windy though 54 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 51 degrees with some 30mph gust making it feel like the low 40s. LOVE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 Im surprised no one commented about the very nice looking lake effect rain band east of Lake Ontario... http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TYX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1348065034&lat=43.45289993&lon=-76.50402069&label=Oswego%2C+NY&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Im surprised no one commented about the very nice looking lake effect rain band east of Lake Ontario... http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=1 We had some showers here earlier, nothing heavy or anything, now it is just cloudy here. It is raining down in Fulton. Today should remain in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 Nice lake effect look. http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 .95" here. Top wind was 36 mph, but that was around 9pm. More interesting is the battle of the meteorologists. One station calling out the other on the "over hype" of yesterdays possible severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Predicted to get down to the upper 30's here in Madison County tonight. Up further north, looks like a widespread freeze for many in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Only got up to 60 today with a dewpoint now of 42. Should get down into the mid 40s tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I .95" here. Top wind was 36 mph, but that was around 9pm. More interesting is the battle of the meteorologists. One station calling out the other on the "over hype" of yesterdays possible severe weather. Well NWS/SPC have to take some heat for it too w/ the TORNADO WATCH which was NOT warranted IMO. To try and predict brief spinups is very difficult at best made even more difficult with a rapidly moving QLCS where if a tornado happens they are nearly always very shortlived. Its a damned if you do damned if you don't situation for sure. By the time the warning comes out the tornado (if it was really one) is often gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Not sure if anyone has seen this yet, but pretty remarkable. http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=152489941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Down to 43.4 here now. Brrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I Well NWS/SPC have to take some heat for it too w/ the TORNADO WATCH which was NOT warranted IMO. To try and predict brief spinups is very difficult at best made even more difficult with a rapidly moving QLCS where if a tornado happens they are nearly always very shortlived. Its a damned if you do damned if you don't situation for sure. By the time the warning comes out the tornado (if it was really one) is often gone. I agree. It was shocking that they even issues that. But, hey, if they put one up, they have to tell everyone about it. No way around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Only got down to 42 here last night. Temp at 11pm was 43 and then a southerly breeze kicked in and our temp never dropped below 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 NWS ALB mentions snow for I believe the first time of the season in their forecast discussion from earlier this afternoon: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...WET/CLDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER EASTERN CANADA/QUEBEC BFR SHIFTING EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AS STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE GREAT LKS REGION. BFR RIDGE ARRIVES...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT PUSHING SLOWLY THRU THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL...-RW EXPECTED AS SYSTEM TRAVERSES...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT(850/925 TEMPS NEAR 4C) MAY ALLOW -RW TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX SOME -SW FOR A FEW HRS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF BOTH VT/NY. LATTER PORTION OF MONDAY THRU TUESDAY HAS SFC RIDGE S AND E OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL SLOW SECOND TROUGH THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY BFR CLRING AREA. QPF FOR BOTH SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH AN INCH IN SPOTS. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE MAINLY NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AND 30S/40S FOR OVERNGT LOWS. CLD COVER WILL AID IN TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNGT LOWS. Snow is also in the forecast for some of the elevated zones in theirs grids - both NY and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I agree. It was shocking that they even issues that. But, hey, if they put one up, they have to tell everyone about it. No way around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 It looks like the next few days here are going to be rainy and cool. We could possibly strung;e to get out of the 50's this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Had some thunder last night with 1.26" in the gauge this morning. Heres a little bit from the NWS AFD about tomorrows lake effect event. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ON SUNDAY A -2SD 500 HPA BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPIRALING EAST AND NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...PROVIDING FOR A COOL FALLISH TYPE DAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN. BOTH THE NAM AND THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL PLACE AN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST OF BOTH GREAT LAKES...WITH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL MOTION TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C UNDER THE POOL OF COLD AIR OF AROUND 1C AT 850 WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. LAKE INDUCED EQL OVER 25K FEET WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AROUND 3-4K FEET EXPECT A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OFF BOTH LAKES. WILL PLACE HIGHER...CATEGORICAL POPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOISTURE FIELDS ARE A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE...WHILE MAINTAINING LIKELY OFF LAKE ERIE. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...MAINLY BETWEEN 250-270 DEGREES. THIS WILL PLACE THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT BANDS JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. AT TIMES EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO BRUSH BY THE AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE LONG FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIVE MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH RAINFALL ENHANCED IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN FACE OF THE TUG HILL REGION. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE AN AVERAGE BASIN QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN MOST PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS IN THE GRIDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORTER FETCH EAST OF LAKE ERIE...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH FOR SUNDAY WILL TOUCH THE -10C LEVEL WHERE GRAUPEL IS LIKELY. WITH THE SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. Looks like a southtowns special. winds 250-270 degrees. Buckle up Richard haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Nice lake effect band beginning to form over lake ontario. It should drift south by around noontime as the surface and 850 mb flow becomes more wnw. We could also get a bit of a connection from lake huron based on the activity there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 23, 2012 Author Share Posted September 23, 2012 Total rain from the past 2 days here is 1.50″ exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Getting some lightning here with a few heavy lake effect showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Getting some lightning here with a few heavy lake effect showers. Saw some nice looking bands moving in earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 Getting some lightning here with a few heavy lake effect showers. yeah downpoured here for about 15 minutes. didn't. see any lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 This is my first year up here, so for those more experienced than I, when should we start seeing some synoptic or lake effect snow events in the SYR area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 This is my first year up here, so for those more experienced than I, when should we start seeing some synoptic or lake effect snow events in the SYR area? im not in the SYR area, Im in the BUF area but its pretty similar. By early October you can expect your first lake effect snow events to start. Prob more so to your north across the tug Hill with greater elevation especally in the early season events where temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 im not in the SYR area, Im in the BUF area but its pretty similar. By early October you can expect your first lake effect snow events to start. Prob more so to your north across the tug Hill with greater elevation especally in the early season events where temps are marginal. The great thing about Lake Ontario is that unlike Lake Erie, it does not freeze over, and it produces snow longer than Lake Erie does. Maybe Buffalo will have an October 2006 repeat again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 im not in the SYR area, Im in the BUF area but its pretty similar. By early October you can expect your first lake effect snow events to start. Prob more so to your north across the tug Hill with greater elevation especally in the early season events where temps are marginal. That's obscenely generous. I'd say that the lake effect potentials really start to take off by about the 2 or 3rd week of November and hit their peak potential in December and January. Lake Ontario's season runs very long as the lake doesnt freeze...so they have been known to get some epic storms into February as well. You'll likely get your first wet flakes of the season in October, but overall October is fairly mild month around here. Thanksgiving is the big benchmark for when big lake effect events become much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's obscenely generous. I'd say that the lake effect potentials really start to take off by about the 2 or 3rd week of November and hit their peak potential in December and January. Lake Ontario's season runs very long as the lake doesnt freeze...so they have been known to get some epic storms into February as well. You'll likely get your first wet flakes of the season in October, but overall October is fairly mild month around here. Thanksgiving is the big benchmark for when big lake effect events become much more likely. I honestly meant November not October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I honestly meant November not October. I actually believe you. You know your **** well enough to not say something like that.... If only we only had to wait until October! Anyway, we are starting to get close now though...October 12th is only a little over 2 weeks away. Now thats a benchmark storm of a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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