DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The color scale on that map is atrocious.... Pretty impressive temperature gradient going on right now, as the core of the cold from the vortex shifts off to the east. Mid 20's here now, but impressive cold for many at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Way out in la la land, but i would love to see that 11-15 temp anomaly map on the 12Z GFS verify. Been waiting for a long time to get a sharp arctic trof to anchor north of Lake Superior...which would presumably give us a chance for a significant SW flow lake effect event in WNY as shortwaves pinwheel around the trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Man, if we could pop into a + PNA pattern things could get fun. Temps in NW Canada/Alaska have been frigid. Fairbanks came in at an impressive 11 deg. below avg for November. Check out this forecast for Eagle, AK (eastern part of the state): TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 50 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 20 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 45 BELOW. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Man, if we could pop into a + PNA pattern things could get fun. Temps in NW Canada/Alaska have been frigid. Fairbanks came in at an impressive 11 deg. below avg for November. Check out this forecast for Eagle, AK (eastern part of the state): TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 50 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 20 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 45 BELOW. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. seems like things will change for the better in the next 10 days-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Man, if we could pop into a + PNA pattern things could get fun. Temps in NW Canada/Alaska have been frigid. Fairbanks came in at an impressive 11 deg. below avg for November. Check out this forecast for Eagle, AK (eastern part of the state): TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 50 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 30 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 20 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 45 BELOW. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. Most of the GFS ensemble members have the PNA going positive around the 10th of December, with all members showing the NAO going negative at that time. Also, the EC, GFS and the UKMET all show some signs of the MJO going into phase 1-2 around the day 10 period which would favor colder temperatures for the eastern US. The MJO signal forecast by the models is out of the low amplitude "circle of death" but it is still somewhat weak, so it may have a limited influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Great discussion from NWS this afternoon. THERE IS A SUGGESTION BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT SIGNIFICANT RIDGING MAY SET UP OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF THIS MONTH. THE ECMWF AND A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD MEAN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SEASONABLY COLD AIR TO WORK SOUTH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHERE COLD AIR SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE SOLUTION BEING PORTRAYED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE PACKAGES WOULD FAVOR A BROAD BASED TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDER AIR TAKING MORE A MORE CIRCUITOUS ROUTE ACROSS THE MID WEST BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS ROUTE WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AREA. THE AIRMASS WOULD NOT BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD...BUT ALL THAT WOULD BE NEEDED IS FOR H85 TEMPS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF -8C OR LOWER. IN TERMS OF THE REAL COLD AIR...THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MAIN CORES OF ARCTIC AIR THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH ONE OVER SIBERIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGING OVER SIBERIA THIS WEEK WILL DISPERSE/DISPLACE THE AIRMASS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLE...WHILE THE ARCTIC AIR ON THIS SIDE OF THE POLE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT. WHILE THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWER 48 ANYTIME SOON...IT IS WORTH NOTING. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL JET THAT CROSSED NORTH AMERICA AND NEARLY ENCIRCLED THE GLOBE (AT ROUGHLY 40-50N) AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR IS IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE THIS FALL. THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT H7 IS MORE ANOMALOUS IN NATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR BLOCKING AND A HIGHER CHANCE FOR COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ICELANDIC LOW HAS BEEN WEAKER THIS FALL AND HAS ACTUALLY GIVEN WAY TO RIDGING SEVERAL TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Beautiful start to the day here, currently 55 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Beautiful start to the day here, currently 55 and sunny. I don't like it. It should be snowing, not 55 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't like it. It should be snowing, not 55 and sunny. Incredible warmth, closing in on 68 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Awful weather.....59 and climbing Hopefully we can get a bomb in the lakes so we can get some decent LES sometime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 68° at my station. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Incredible torch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 65 today, beautiful loved every minute of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Topped out at 69 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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