CNYWeather Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Down to 35.8° overnight. Saw a temp of 28 at Gray Reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 11, 2012 Author Share Posted September 11, 2012 Only got down to 48. Warmer than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Can we sincerely commit to a lake effect outbreak GTG this year. The obligatory thread starts every year but quickly dies out. On a selfish note, I would be able to cross off "Trip to Pulaski" off my bucket list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Lots warmer this morning at 42.8°. Yesterday ended up bottoming out at 33.9°. A small amount of my tomatoes and pumpkin leaves had some frost damage but it was minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Too warm today, got up to the upper 70's today. This weekend should be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 I think youll get your cooler temps snowlover76... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think youll get your cooler temps snowlover76... http://www.cpc.ncep....814temp.new.gif All right!! I am sure that you are happy too about the lower temps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 All right!! I am sure that you are happy too about the lower temps!! Yes but I would love to see that 2 months from now. Ill take it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Yes but I would love to see that 2 months from now. Ill take it anyway What happens in October is key for what could happen during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 What happens in October is key for what could happen during the winter. right now a negative AO is bad for us because it means it will br warmer at the poles. we want a positive AO so the Arctic ice can recover from its record losses. than once we hit late October/ November we want it to switch like a light to negative and stay there with the NAO untilled March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 right now a negative AO is bad for us because it means it will br warmer at the poles. we want a positive AO so the Arctic ice can recover from its record losses. than once we hit late October/ November we want it to switch like a light to negative and stay there with the NAO untilled March Some Septembers would seem to contradict this. September 1993 was quite cool, as was October 1993 and te following winter turned out quite cold. September 1976 and 1980 were cool, as were the following Octobers and Novembers, and those winters turned out cold. This would appear to show that the weather turning cool early is not always a harbinger of the cold air being used up too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 Some Septembers would seem to contradict this. September 1993 was quite cool, as was October 1993 and te following winter turned out quite cold. September 1976 and 1980 were cool, as were the following Octobers and Novembers, and those winters turned out cold. This would appear to show that the weather turning cool early is not always a harbinger of the cold air being used up too soon. its not that the cold air is really used up to soon its just that a positive AO makes it hard for Arctic sea ice to recover from it's melting during the summer thus making it harder to get cold air from the Arctic in Oct/Nov. I'm no expert though so who knows lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Looking at the average monthly AO index for September from 1950 to 2010, there is no correlation between the index and seasonal snowfall at BUF. Whether or not record sea ice minimums will impact the upcoming season remains to be seen, although depending on where sea ice anomalies occur, subsequent height anomalies in the arctic could produce favorable blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Some Septembers would seem to contradict this. September 1993 was quite cool, as was October 1993 and te following winter turned out quite cold. September 1976 and 1980 were cool, as were the following Octobers and Novembers, and those winters turned out cold. This would appear to show that the weather turning cool early is not always a harbinger of the cold air being used up too soon. 1976-77 is one of my top analogs for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 1976-77 is one of my top analogs for this upcoming winter. Haha we can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Haha we can only hope. Well anything would be better than the crap we had to go through last winter! Looks like we could have some rain to deal with tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 What happens in October is key for what could happen during the winter. Cold weather now is HORRIBLE for a strong LES season in WNY. The colder lake erie is early on the faster it freezes over. I want warmer then average weather until December, then we can get 6-7 inch snowfall rates in a LES snowband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Cold weather now is HORRIBLE for a strong LES season in WNY. The colder lake erie is early on the faster it freezes over. I want warmer then average weather until December, then we can get 6-7 inch snowfall rates in a LES snowband. There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between the average temperature of lake erie in october to the upcoming seasonal snowfall. In fact, the average lake temperature for october 1976 was well below average, yet there was still 68 inches of snow in the month of january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 Id take an average season of snow. My favorite year would be 2000-2001. That winter we had 45 inches in November and 56 inches in December with a yearly total of 158" at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Cold weather now is HORRIBLE for a strong LES season in WNY. The colder lake erie is early on the faster it freezes over. I want warmer then average weather until December, then we can get 6-7 inch snowfall rates in a LES snowband. Well you rely on lake Erie for snow, I rely on Lake Ontario for my snow. Aren't the temperatures in the lakes in the 70's right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 Well you rely on lake Erie for snow, I rely on Lake Ontario for my snow. Aren't the temperatures in the lakes in the 70's right now? You lucky bastard.LolEries at 72 , Ontarios at 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 The lakes are above average now, but it's not huge, right? Weren't both lakes warmer last year during this time of year? My recollection may be off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 The lakes are above average now, but it's not huge, right? Weren't both lakes warmer last year during this time of year? My recollection may be off though. yeah your off. lake Erie was 70 last Sept 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between the average temperature of lake erie in october to the upcoming seasonal snowfall. In fact, the average lake temperature for october 1976 was well below average, yet there was still 68 inches of snow in the month of january. Are you looking at same graph as me? This clearly shows less snowfall when lake is colder earlier...Ive lived it here in my area, I know what happens when the lake is colder in October. It shortens the LES season drastically. When the lake freezes over in Mid January, you have 2 less months of LES. Yours odds are drastically reduced in your number of LES events in comparison to when the lake does not freeze or freezes later on in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Are you looking at same graph as me? This clearly shows less snowfall when lake is colder earlier...Ive lived it here in my area, I know what happens when the lake is colder in October. It shortens the LES season drastically. When the lake freezes over in Mid January, you have 2 less months of LES. Yours odds are drastically reduced in your number of LES events in comparison to when the lake does not freeze or freezes later on in the year. The graph shows that lake temperatures in October don't do a very good job predicting seasonal snowfall. The problem with using lake temperature anomalies in October is that they may not persist into the winter. If there is an above average November or December, cool lake temperature anomalies in October may become warm anomalies later in the season. If the fall as a whole is below average, then I would agree that lake erie is more likely to freeze earlier. In that case however, there might be more lake effect snow in November and December. A good example of that was the 2000-2001 lake effect season where there were three events in November and five events in December, but none off of lake erie after that. Even though the lake froze at the end of December that season, Buffalo still had a seasonal total of 158.7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 The graph shows that lake temperatures in October don't do a very good job predicting seasonal snowfall. The problem with using lake temperature anomalies in October is that they may not persist into the winter. If there is an above average November or December, cool lake temperature anomalies in October may become warm anomalies later in the season. If the fall as a whole is below average, then I would agree that lake erie is more likely to freeze earlier. In that case however, there might be more lake effect snow in November and December. A good example of that was the 2000-2001 lake effect season where there were three events in November and five events in December, but none off of lake erie after that. Even though the lake froze at the end of December that season, Buffalo still had a seasonal total of 158.7 inches. I would take that winter in a heartbeat. One of my favorite winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The graph shows that lake temperatures in October don't do a very good job predicting seasonal snowfall. The problem with using lake temperature anomalies in October is that they may not persist into the winter. If there is an above average November or December, cool lake temperature anomalies in October may become warm anomalies later in the season. If the fall as a whole is below average, then I would agree that lake erie is more likely to freeze earlier. In that case however, there might be more lake effect snow in November and December. A good example of that was the 2000-2001 lake effect season where there were three events in November and five events in December, but none off of lake erie after that. Even though the lake froze at the end of December that season, Buffalo still had a seasonal total of 158.7 inches. Exactly the correlation between a colder Oct/Nov is very vague. However, the correlation between early season snowfalls and the length of time it stays on the ground is not vague. Early Nov to Early December snowfalls rarely if ever stay on the ground for more then a week. That is why I enjoy winter from Dec to Early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Most of the snow in the Winter of 2000-2001 fell in a matter of a week though. Not sure about the rest of you guys but I like the action to hang around longer than that. I lived in one of the hardest hit areas during that LES blast from the past (Cheektowaga). Remember it taking 4-5 hours to dig my car out which was entirely snowed under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Most of the snow in the Winter of 2000-2001 fell in a matter of a week though. Not sure about the rest of you guys but I like the action to hang around longer than that. I lived in one of the hardest hit areas during that LES blast from the past (Cheektowaga). Remember it taking 4-5 hours to dig my car out which was entirely snowed under. not really. There was 8 lake effect events from Nov 14th through Dec 27th and between November and December over 100" of snow fell at the airport. Id take that in a second regardless of how long the snow sticks around once its on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 FWIW the 18z GFS shows a huge slug of rain Tuesday-Wednesday for WNY with as much as 3" in spots. 18z NAM is in good agreement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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