kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I may have spoken too soon - it's actually snowing steadily enough to accumulate still, albeit at a very slow pace. There are pockets of synoptic snowfall affecting parts of the area due to the weak s/w that's passing through, combined with the WAA. In fact as I look out my window right now, it might be snowing just as hard as it ever was when I was in the lake band ha. Temp still holding at 29F. As far as the lake band is concerned, there are definitely some heavy echoes over the lake but, as mentioned, they will have a tough time penetrating more than a mile or two from the lakeshore unless the boundary layer winds pick up a bit. In addition if you look at the band near Long Point Ontario it isn't really showing signs of lifting northward anymore; so I think this may have a tough time reaching the north towns, certainly up near the Niagara County line. I think areas from Blasdell/Lackawanna up into downtown BUF may be affected by the steadiest lake snows over the next 4-5 hours. Southward drift still looks pretty likely after the s/w passes through and winds begin to veer. Right now it looks like that might start happening around or a little after 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SUNY Oswego starting to whiten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I may have spoken too soon - it's actually snowing steadily enough to accumulate still, albeit at a very slow pace. There are pockets of synoptic snowfall affecting parts of the area due to the weak s/w that's passing through, combined with the WAA. In fact as I look out my window right now, it might be snowing just as hard as it ever was when I was in the lake band ha. Temp still holding at 29F. As far as the lake band is concerned, there are definitely some heavy echoes over the lake but, as mentioned, they will have a tough time penetrating more than a mile or two from the lakeshore unless the boundary layer winds pick up a bit. In addition if you look at the band near Long Point Ontario it isn't really showing signs of lifting northward anymore; so I think this may have a tough time reaching the north towns, certainly up near the Niagara County line. I think areas from Blasdell/Lackawanna up into downtown BUF may be affected by the steadiest lake snows over the next 4-5 hours. Southward drift still looks pretty likely after the s/w passes through and winds begin to veer. Right now it looks like that might start happening around or a little after 4PM. There is a small intense band of LES just north of West Seneca through South Buffalo to downtown. They are getting most likely an inch per hour rates there. It is very narrow looking like 5 miles in width. They might hit the jackpot from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There is a small intense band of LES just north of West Seneca through South Buffalo to downtown. They are getting most likely an inch per hour rates there. It is very narrow looking like 5 miles in width. They might hit the jackpot from this event. Closing in on the first inch of the season here. Light snow with good flake size currently falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Closing in on the first inch of the season here. Light snow with good flake size currently falling. I'm near main and Harlem. its snowing steadily but not sticking to any pavement whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just took a drive up to the northern end of Orchard Park. There was noticeably more snow than there is here on Cole Road. I measured about 2" on a picnic table outside of the Mighty Taco on Southwestern Boulevard. I'm thinking Lackawanna "jackpots" with this event. They look to be underneath the heaviest echoes right now, and even if the band wiggles a bit to the north it'll sink right back south again later this afternoon. If anyone gets 4"+ from this event, that is where it will likely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Couple of inches on the ground here just outside Cooperstown. It's lake effect fluff with warm ground underneath it so it's very sticky. Doesn't do anything for me but my young children are loving it. And it makes me more optimistic about the coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just took a drive up to the northern end of Orchard Park. There was noticeably more snow than there is here on Cole Road. I measured about 2" on a picnic table outside of the Mighty Taco on Southwestern Boulevard. keep me updated. I'm in Amherst till 4pm. is the snow still coming down good and accumulating even with it being daytime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 keep me updated. I'm in Amherst till 4pm. is the snow still coming down good and accumulating even with it being daytime? I think we're done with accumulating snowfall until the band sinks back down again late today. Looks like the town of OP picked up a general 1-2" from south to north. EDIT: The snow has definitely picked up again here on Cole Road, but on radar it almost looks like more of a localized upslope effect that may not be occurring in the village. Maybe this will allow me to catch up to the snowfall accumulations observed farther north. Flakes are big, temp is 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Some 35 dBz echoes showing up on the Bufalo radar, in a narrow but really well defined band core. If you look closely, you can see a braided structure in the core of the band on the reflectivity field, co-located with a nice shear zone on the velocity. I would bet there are some nice miso-vorticies along that shear zone and maybe even a waterspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Band near Long Point looks like it might be starting to edge south again, a little earlier than expected. The band has probably reached its northernmost extent in Erie County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Light stuff up in Parkside. If this keeps up until 3 we might end up with an inch in North Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 A nice burst of large aggregate dendrites in the last hour has brought our total up to 1.5" here on Cole Road, even outside of the true lake band. Still snowing lightly at 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think this is about to get a lot more interesting in the south towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think this is about to get a lot more interesting in the south towns. I agree. that band is intensifying. I really wish the Bills were playing at home today, could be an epic second half. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-6 inch amounts in Lackawanna/West Seneca area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think this is about to get a lot more interesting in the south towns. I was just thinking that same thing. Interesting mesoscale interactions on the Eastern end of the lake with pencil thin bands of strong convection crackling with 35-40dbz returns. Looks like the E-W oriented band is actually getting pushed North (The classic whipping motion) as the main band shifts to westerly fetch and crashes the S. Erie County shore. It'll be a straight wall of snow with short term snowfall rates nearing 3"/hr... Once again, a damn shame the game isnt in Buffalo. What a sight that would be. For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't mean to ignore this either. That's pretty legit too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Seems like the NWS expects the band off of Erie to drift northward. A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INLAND OFF OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE SOUTH BUFFALO METRO SUBURBS, AND IN A WEAKER STATE INTO CLARENCE CENTER...AKRON AND ALDEN AREAS. LOCATIONS LIKE LACKAWANNA, WEST SENECA, SLOAN, AND SOUTH BUFFALO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD. DRIVERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING IN OR NEAR THESE LOCATIONS AS ROADS MAY BE SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Snow starting to pick up here after a 70-80 minute lull. Looking at the radar it looks like the heaviest is just skirting to my north across the village, but there are heavier echoes near the Eden/Angola area that will probably move in within the next 30-40 minutes. My drive back to the airport looks snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Seems like the NWS expects the band off of Erie to drift northward. A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INLAND OFF OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE SOUTH BUFFALO METRO SUBURBS, AND IN A WEAKER STATE INTO CLARENCE CENTER...AKRON AND ALDEN AREAS. LOCATIONS LIKE LACKAWANNA, WEST SENECA, SLOAN, AND SOUTH BUFFALO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD. DRIVERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING IN OR NEAR THESE LOCATIONS AS ROADS MAY BE SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES. Yeah looking at the band's behavior over the lake, I don't really understand this expectation. There appears to be some kind of mesoscale disturbance over the eastern end of the lake right now, behind which there has been a decided southward shift of the band's core. I don't really think the band will edge any farther north than its current position, and once that mesoscale disturbance ripples through I wouldn't be surprised if the snow abruptly ends in the immediate BUF metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah looking at the band's behavior over the lake, I don't really understand this expectation. There appears to be some kind of mesoscale disturbance over the eastern end of the lake right now, behind which there has been a decided southward shift of the band's core. I don't really think the band will edge any farther north than its current position, and once that mesoscale disturbance ripples through I wouldn't be surprised if the snow abruptly ends in the immediate BUF metro area. Last few frames it looks like the band is weakening, does this have anything to do with sheer or lack or moisture? Looks like the band is drying up as it moves onshore in the last few radar frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 5" here on the western edge of the Tug. Over performing the 1-3 forecast during the day with the main event still forecasted for tonight:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 5" here on the western edge of the Tug. Over performing the 1-3 forecast during the day with the main event still forecasted for tonight:) Tug is going to get destroyed tonight. 1-2 feet possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Last few frames it looks like the band is weakening, does this have anything to do with sheer or lack or moisture? Looks like the band is drying up as it moves onshore in the last few radar frames. Probably a little bit of both. Sometimes you can get a lot of wind shear in the low levels following the passage of a short wave, and that may be what's happening over the lake right now. Also I mentioned yesterday that moisture in the dendritic growth layer (the layer of the atmosphere in which temperatures are supportive of dendritic ice crystals) would be key in maintaining a healthy snowband in the wake of the short wave, and some of the models were indicating that the DGL was going to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I know this is a western NY/Tug Hill event, but down the Mohawk here in Rotterdam, I've been on the far Eastern end of the stronger, rotting les bands the past couple days. Frequent clouds and snow showers. One was just heavy enough last night to briefly whiten the cars and parts of the ground. Right now its mostly loudy and light snow...some breaks of sun in the far eastern skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Last few frames it looks like the band is weakening, does this have anything to do with sheer or lack or moisture? Looks like the band is drying up as it moves onshore in the last few radar frames. Yeah, that band dried up pretty quick... All eyes on Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 6" on the nose in West Seneca. Did very well. Band just stalled over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The band over Lake Ontario is starting to look more organized over the lake, although its convection is still a bit cellular. Central Oswego county and southern Jefferson County appear to be getting heavy snow right now with reflectivity values up to 30 dBz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Made it to the airport but holy cow was traffic a disaster! There were two cars off the road on 219, one of which had flipped onto its roof. The thruway was crawling through west seneca where it appeared that many of the roads were not plowed. I even saw a snowmobile driving down a side street! Not quite as much snow here in cheektowaga. West Seneca appears to have been ground zero with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 West Seneca definitly ground zero. Got about 2.5-3 inches here but south Buffalo/West Seneca had about 6" easy. Lots of plows on the roads especally in West Seneca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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