kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Not a huge football guy, but I'd root for the Bills before any other team. Baseball is a different story; I'll choose the Red Sox over the Yankees any day of the week. Apparently whatever luck I have in the weather department is quite the opposite when it comes to sports!! The Red Sox pretty much had their worst season ever in 2012, and the Bills...well...I'm just glad I'm old enough to remember a time when the Bills were good. Anyway, I'm off to bed. Hopefully we wake up to a nice snowy morning in Orchard Park. Good luck to the rest of you guys reading from LES country; hopefully this weekend marks the beginning of a much more bountiful 2012-2013 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 quite the dichtomy in wording with BUF compared to accumulations. OLD AIR WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND -8C AND WELL-ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A GOOD SETUP FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND IMPACTING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WELL DEVELOPED BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND ACROSS GENESEE INTO ORLEANS COUNTY AND IMPACT THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHILE THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO EARLIER IN THE DAY AS THE BAND GRAZES THE AREA AS THE FLOW REALIGNS FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. hey at least its not as bad as the broad on WGRZ. She said on the 11pm newscast tomorrow there will be a few scattered snow showers but overall it will be mostly sunny with isolated 1-2" accumulations.Night Justin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 New HRW-ARW run in. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F25%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=033&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 hey at least its not as bad as the broad on WGRZ. She said on the 11pm newscast tomorrow there will be a few scattered snow showers but overall it will be mostly sunny with isolated 1-2" accumulations. Night Justin. Oh I'm not saying they're downplaying all that much....just that the wording sounds more juicy than the actual amounts. I'm not sure what the issue is? The one thing I could see is it going to see in any one area long enough to give advisory accumulations? Just about everything is showing there will be an intense band in BUF tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 New HRW-ARW run in. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M isolated 1-2" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 isolated 1-2" LOL lol hopefully well be presently surprised tomorrow. I think like you said the criteria may be hard to reach in many places since the band will be on the move. One thing I'm noticing in early 00z runs is the winds dont seem to be backing as much with the lake band only making it as far north as the airport as opposed to GI, Tonawanda, Clarence in earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 lol hopefully well be presently surprised tomorrow. I think like you said the criteria may be hard to reach in many places since the band will be on the move. One thing I'm noticing in early 00z runs is the winds dont seem to be backing as much with the lake band only making it as far north as the airport as opposed to GI, Tonawanda, Clarence in earlier runs. If the band gets intense enough, the duration over one location won't really matter. Early season lake effect events produce some of the most intense snowfall rates in the entire northeast United States. I remember getting 4-6 inches a hour in that 7 feet back in 2001. I think the airport cashes in on the highest snowfall totals tomorrow. Maybe we can win that golden snowball this year. =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 According to NWS shears the killer. OF SUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LAST EVENING. THE ADDITION OF THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL SET UP A 3-5K FEET DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERMODYNAMICALLY...H85 TEMPS OF -10C WILL KEEP MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER BOTH LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LICAPES IN THE VCNTY OF 500 J/KG. BREAKING DOWN THE SPECIFICS OF EACH LAKE... A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY...BUT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MAXIMUM FETCH OVER THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD DEEPENS THIS MORNING... DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO AND THE IAG FRONTIER. DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...A 240-250 FLOW WILL DIRECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE IAG FRONTIER WHILE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SRN TIER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES FOR ANY ONE SPOT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AND WILL BE COVERED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. But yet they expect 2" an hour rates off Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Coming down pretty good here in Southern Oswego County... a good 3 inches on the ground and still coming down good, gonna have to rip the snowmobile around the neighborhood haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think the NWS was right. That band off Erie is looking mighty sheared. Oh well. Ill take 2" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think the NWS was right. That band off Erie is looking mighty sheared. Oh well. Ill take 2" today. look at the models for 13z...they barely show anything...it's getting going earlier than they were showing. The shear thing is crap imo. The veered wind profile is a direct result of lift from warm air advection. We're really only talking about 30 degrees from the top of the unstable layer to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 look at the models for 13z...they barely show anything...it's getting going earlier than they were showing. The shear thing is crap imo. The veered wind profile is a direct result of lift from warm air advection. We're really only talking about 30 degrees from the top of the unstable layer to the surface. We shall see. I hope your right. NWS has 2-4" for me today with 1" tonight, I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 model band placement is too far south compared to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 model band placement is too far south compared to the radar. snowing pretty hard here but the flakes are tiny. Everything already has a good coating of white on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 On radar it looks like the heaviest snow is having a hard time making it inland just sticking to within a few miles of the lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 According to NWS shears the killer. OF SUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LAST EVENING. THE ADDITION OF THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL SET UP A 3-5K FEET DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERMODYNAMICALLY...H85 TEMPS OF -10C WILL KEEP MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER BOTH LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LICAPES IN THE VCNTY OF 500 J/KG. BREAKING DOWN THE SPECIFICS OF EACH LAKE... A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY...BUT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MAXIMUM FETCH OVER THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD DEEPENS THIS MORNING... DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO AND THE IAG FRONTIER. DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...A 240-250 FLOW WILL DIRECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE IAG FRONTIER WHILE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SRN TIER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES FOR ANY ONE SPOT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AND WILL BE COVERED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. But yet they expect 2" an hour rates off Ontario. LOL! Devin did not even sleep, he is like a kid on Christmas right about now. Snowing really good out right now. Visibility 1/2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 LOL! Devin did not even sleep, he is like a kid on Christmas right about now. Snowing really good out right now. Visibility 1/2 mile. same here. And i did sleep lol. Just woke up so i checked the radar and everything. Im still nuts though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9598/imagepzm.jpg About 10 min ago. Getting heavy snow now. About 1/4 to 1/2 mi at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 29 degrees with 0.5" so far on Cole Road. I'd estimate we're probably at 3/4SM -SN right now. Nice snowy morning. It's a tad colder than I expected, so that'll probably bode well for the lower elevations where I was afraid the surface temps were a little more marginal; our td's are low enough, that everyone should be able to wet bulb down below freezing when the steady snow moves in. Band is moving slowly, but it's definitely moving north. I think we'll be out of it by noon here on Cole Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 http://img713.images...98/imagepzm.jpg About 10 min ago. Getting heavy snow now. About 1/4 to 1/2 mi at most I think your old apartment is going to receive more then OP with this one. The heavy snow bands follow me and run away from you. Please move away from my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think your old apartment is going to receive more then OP with this one. The heavy snow bands follow me and run away from you. Please move away from my area! Lol. Still coming down good here. About an inch here eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Btw BuffaloWeather Im heading downtown soon till about noon than Ill be in Amherst/Williamsville till about 4 so I should be with the band most the day but maybe itll run from me and head back towards OP/Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Btw BuffaloWeather Im heading downtown soon till about noon than Ill be in Amherst/Williamsville till about 4 so I should be with the band most the day. Awesome! Drive safe. The shear is clearly evident on radar, wonder if that subsides throughout the day. You can see the wind creating 2 separate bands. One on a SSW flow and one on a WSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Awesome! Drive safe. The shear is clearly evident on radar, wonder if that subsides throughout the day. You can see the wind creating 2 separate bands. One on a SSW flow and one on a WSW flow. yes although on the latest radar frames it seems it is finally consolidating into one band. Hopefully thatll straighten it s bit more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Btw BuffaloWeather Im heading downtown soon till about noon than Ill be in Amherst/Williamsville till about 4 so I should be with the band most the day but maybe itll run from me and head back towards OP/Hamburg. No complaints here! I'll be in OP until around 4:00, then I'm heading to the airport. Looks like we might edge out of the band around 11AM now. I'll do another measurement around 10:45, about an hour after my first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just measured 1 1/2 so far, still snowing lightly now. Flakes have increased in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just measured 1 1/2 so far, still snowing lightly now. Flakes have increased in size. Interesting, we definitely don't have that much here. As Devin mentioned earlier, it looks like the heaviest echoes are having a tough time reaching inland...which is likely due to the relatively light boundary layer winds. There's almost no wind at all here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Interesting, we definitely don't have that much here. As Devin mentioned earlier, it looks like the heaviest echoes are having a tough time reaching inland...which is likely due to the relatively light boundary layer winds. There's almost no wind at all here right now. Yeah, I am a little bit closer to the lake then you guys in OP I think. We had more intense radar returns here. Snow has stopped, band looks entirely disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Looks like we're done here; final measurement yielded a disappointing 0.75" total. Cumulatively I received exactly 1.0" over the course of the entire weekend haha. Oh well, that's 1" more than I would have enjoyed back home in MA. Enjoy the snow up north, guys. Hopefully the band delivers more than it did here in the south towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Looks like we're done here; final measurement yielded a disappointing 0.75" total. Cumulatively I received exactly 1.0" over the course of the entire weekend haha. Oh well, that's 1" more than I would have enjoyed back home in MA. Enjoy the snow up north, guys. Hopefully the band delivers more than it did here in the south towns. Another spotter reporting 1.5-2″ here in Hamburg so my measurement seems correct. Think we got some higher snowfall rates since we are a tad closer to the lake which yielded higher snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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