OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 probably especally with a bit of thermal troughing. Thinking from the city through West Seneca may be the target. Just my luck lol Tough to say exactly where it sets up...but I'm thinking north of you. Given the WAA, the profile will be veered...with surface winds in the 230-235 range and then 850mb winds in the 250-255 range. While that imparts shear, it is generally offset by the synoptic lift and the added moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 0.8" here in Westmoreland. Looks like just a little more on the way. Looking good Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Tughill picked up 3 to 5 inches........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 WRF NMM/ARW and MM5 stony brook continue to be quite favorable for advisory or even low end warning amounts for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Its a shame the Bills arent playing at home tomorrow. Would have been a perfect setup to get some game time lake effect snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looking good Tony Ended up with 2.7" total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just took a drive up to the top of Cole Road (1600' in North Boston) and I'd estimate around an inch of snow up there. I doubt there's been any melting since last night as the car thermometer was reading 30F at mid-afternoon. It was spitting just a little bit of snow and graupel up there just now, but I'm guessing pretty much all of this fell last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Received some surprisingly intense squalls here in Guelph, ON last night. Particularly around 9pm. Semi-whiteout conditions during one squall around 9:20pm. Heaviest lasted about 5-10 minutes, then snap and it cleared up instantly like someone flicked the switch. Lake effect bands still continuing for southern Ontario right now, although accumulation is minimal IMBY. Good start to the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lake effect snow watch issued mainly for the Tug Hill portions of Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego counties for 6-12 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lake effect snow watch issued mainly for the Tug Hill portions of Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego counties for 6-12 inches of snow. wonder why no watch or advisory for here. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 wonder why no watch or advisory for here. oh well. Yeah I am surprised as well. I think the airport takes a good hit tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah I am surprised as well. I think the airport takes a good hit tomorrow. Yes, and I have a 6:42 flight. Check out the workstation ETA simulated radar at 7PM tomorrow evening: Maybe I get to score an extra night home with the family? Should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yes, and I have a 6:42 flight. Check out the workstation ETA simulated radar at 7PM tomorrow evening: Maybe I get to score an extra night home with the family? Should be interesting... Events like these tend to have a high tendency to surprise people around here. Usually becomes a now casting event, guess we will just wait and see how mother nature behaves tomorrow. If that comes to fruition your flight most likely will be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 One thing we'll have to be mindful of tomorrow are surface temps. Even though the air at h85 is plenty cold for LES, the southwesterly flow may allow for a decent amount of llvl warming especially near the lakeshore and in the immediate BUF metro area. That llvl warming could be overcome by diabatic processes if we start cranking out heavy precip rates; but I wouldn't be shocked if temperatures end up a hair above freezing which will not allow the snow to accumulate as efficiently. The workstation ETA and 4km WRF from the PSU e-wall are both showing temps in the mid 30s at KBUF during the precip, but I'm not sure how well they handle surface temps during LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Any image of the workstation ETA simulated radar of the Tug Hill? I live fairly close to the Tug so would be cool to see a image. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Any image of the workstation ETA simulated radar of the Tug Hill? I live fairly close to the Tug so would be cool to see a image. Thanks. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Click "Composite Reflectivity" on the left hand side of the screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 NWS only going with 1-3" here tomorrow and 1" in the city and northern burbs. I think theyre gonna be in for a surprise. I could see 2-3" here and a 6" lolli near the airport tomorrow. As BuffaloWeather said, these events often come as a surprise and an over achiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Mike Cejka from WIVB is going with 2-5" for tomorrow but said that number may need to be adjusted up depending on how the band sets up, how much it oscillates, ect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think the NWS wants to wait to see how the bands gonna set up (intensity,how fast its moving S to N, ect...) before it will issue any headlines. Dont think they wanna issue an advisory only for it to set up and move quicker than expected and only drop an inch or have surface temps be a degree or two too warm and have most of the snow melt on contact. Should be intresting for us when we wake up tomorrow morning. Getting a nice snow shower here now. Enough to coat the roads, cars, ect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think the NWS wants to wait to see how the bands gonna set up (intensity,how fast its moving S to N, ect...) before it will issue any headlines. Dont think they wanna issue an advisory only for it to set up and move quicker than expected and only drop an inch or have surface temps be a degree or two too warm and have most of the snow melt on contact. Should be intresting for us when we wake up tomorrow morning. Getting a nice snow shower here now. Enough to coat the roads, cars, ect... Regarding the issue with surface temps, I think we'll benefit locally from the earlier onset here in the south towns. I expect snow to quickly develop around 9AM, maybe even a tad sooner if the llvl winds begin backing a little earlier than expected. Temperatures won't have a chance to rise much from the overnight lows by that time, and then evaporational/diabatic cooling should keep us near freezing until the precip intensity lets up. Farther north in the metro it may take until closer to 11AM for the snow to begin, and with the developing southwesterly flow and WAA temps should be able to sneak up into the mid 30s prior to the arrival of the lake band. Won't make much of a difference if the band really cranks, but we probably won't waste any QPF due to melting with the slightly earlier onset here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Regarding the issue with surface temps, I think we'll benefit locally from the earlier onset here in the south towns. I expect snow to quickly develop around 9AM, maybe even a tad sooner if the llvl winds begin backing a little earlier than expected. Temperatures won't have a chance to rise much from the overnight lows by that time, and then evaporational/diabatic cooling should keep us near freezing until the precip intensity lets up. Farther north in the metro it may take until closer to 11AM for the snow to begin, and with the developing southwesterly flow and WAA temps should be able to sneak up into the mid 30s prior to the arrival of the lake band. Won't make much of a difference if the band really cranks, but we probably won't waste any QPF due to melting with the slightly earlier onset here. very good point. What are you expecting for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Justin it should be a fun day for me as the band will likley be following me all day. Ill be in OP tomorrow until about 1030 than ill be Downtown through noon. After that Ill be at the Snyder Fire Hall in Amherst/Williamsville until about 3-4 before heading back to OP. should be a fun day hanging with the snowband Ill be sure to take my camera with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 In Orchard Park I'm honestly expecting no more than 2" from round one during the AM. The llvl winds will be backing pretty quickly (although the 00z NAM doesn't seem to have as much backing as earlier runs)...but with a backing wind profile, it always seems like these lake bands migrate north more quickly than expected. We'll probably get decent snowfall rates from like 9-11AM then things will lift up into the metro. What's less certain is how things shape up tomorrow evening. Boundary layer winds will be veering following the passage of the s/w, but only gradually. This should allow the band to slowly sink south after ~7PM, so if we can maintain a decent amount of moisture in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) I could definitely see a healthy band settling back into the south towns in the 7-10PM timeframe. I can envision a scenario when that is the timeframe when the bulk of the accumulation occurs around here...but it really is dependent on maintaining moisture in the DGL. If I was forced to make a call right now I'd probably go with around 2" during the morning round, then another 1-2" in the evening...but there will be some melting/compacting in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 In Orchard Park I'm honestly expecting no more than 2" from round one during the AM. The llvl winds will be backing pretty quickly (although the 00z NAM doesn't seem to have as much backing as earlier runs)...but with a backing wind profile, it always seems like these lake bands migrate north more quickly than expected. We'll probably get decent snowfall rates from like 9-11AM then things will lift up into the metro. What's less certain is how things shape up tomorrow evening. Boundary layer winds will be veering following the passage of the s/w, but only gradually. This should allow the band to slowly sink south after ~7PM, so if we can maintain a decent amount of moisture in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) I could definitely see a healthy band settling back into the south towns in the 7-10PM timeframe. I can envision a scenario when that is the timeframe when the bulk of the accumulation occurs around here...but it really is dependent on maintaining moisture in the DGL. If I was forced to make a call right now I'd probably go with around 2" during the morning round, then another 1-2" in the evening...but there will be some melting/compacting in between. i was thinking "round 2" would have more punch as well. Whenever the bands start to shift back south after the metro area they always seem to stall a bit once they reach the southtowns. I remember the December 9th event last year did that exact thing. Once the band started moving south from the Erie/Niagara county line in flew right through the city untill hitting West Seneca/Hamburg/OP than it slowed significantly and sat over those areas for several hours dropping about 5" or so. I actually think that could be a good analog to this event. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1112/b/stormsumb.html What helps for us like you said is the timing here. Looks like well get the snow in the morning and evening in the southtowns vs the northtowns which will have it during the day which will help wrt boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I've noticed how the bands do occasionally tend to get "stuck" over the south towns when they are settling south following the passage of a short wave; this happened when I was living with my parents during the 12/9/09 event. It was a similar scenario during which the band initially lifted through during the AM, lifted all the way into the north towns during the PM while the sun popped out down here, then sank southward while intensifying dramatically during the evening...stalling right over Cole Road for about two hours during which time we picked up 8" of snow! I'm guessing this might have something to do with the local geography. We pretty much sit at the foot of the Boston Hills while the terrain to our north is flat as a pancake. It isn't impossible to think these lake bands may temporarily get stuck when they first bump into the higher terrain, until they finally build enough momentum to continue pressing south. I don't know of any research to back this up, but it sounds like you witnessed this last year and I can recall a similar scenario in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yes check out this radar image from the 12/9/11 event. You can even see the band stalling at the end. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1112/b/KBUF.gif I could see the morning band lifting north pretty quickly dropping a quick inch or so here then settle over the northtowns for a while dropping 2" or so for them (would be more if not during the day) than accelerating southward steadily but not quickly and slowing down a bit further once it hits the higher terrain. I could see "round 2" dropping a solid 2-4" in a 3 hour period and maybe a bit of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nice! By the way, I was home for the 12/9 event last year...and I was also home for the Thanksgiving weekend event in 2010. I've been pretty lucky considering I only make it home about three times a year! Hopefully that luck continues tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 Your my good luck charm now that Im in OP too. Dont go back to Norwood! Lol Btw how could you live there being a Bills fan? Or are you not? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 quite the dichtomy in wording with BUF compared to accumulations. OLD AIR WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND -8C AND WELL-ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A GOOD SETUP FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND IMPACTING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WELL DEVELOPED BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND ACROSS GENESEE INTO ORLEANS COUNTY AND IMPACT THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHILE THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO EARLIER IN THE DAY AS THE BAND GRAZES THE AREA AS THE FLOW REALIGNS FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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