lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Justin, dont know if you caught WGRZ weather segment just now but their in house model which is always spot on showed a pretty impressive looking band Sunday as the flow backs SW again. Was shocked to see how healthy it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 New Canadian is full of excitment for us WNYers. Hours 24-27 Hours 62-76 Hours 108-120 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Justin, dont know if you caught WGRZ weather segment just now but their in house model which is always spot on showed a pretty impressive looking band Sunday as the flow backs SW again. Was shocked to see how healthy it looked. I missed this-- Southtowns, or did it include Buffalo as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 I missed this-- Southtowns, or did it include Buffalo as well? Buffalo as well.First Lake Effect Snow Advisory in effect here!!!! Woo-hoo. 5-9" in heaviest bands. That will fall to my south, but i do expect a couple of inches and it's just nice to see a lake effect snow headline. Happy Black Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Buffalo as well. First Lake Effect Snow Advisory in effect here!!!! Woo-hoo. 5-9" in heaviest bands. That will fall to my south, but i do expect a couple of inches and it's just nice to see a lake effect snow headline. Happy Black Friday It's always bothered me that the NWS has Orchard Park included in the Southern Erie County zone. Even though we may technically be in the southern half of the county, we are always getting placed under headlines that are really meant for the Boston Hills and points south. In all honesty, I'm not expecting more than a little bit of slush on the grass/cartops this evening - I really think we're going to have a tough time cooling surface temperatures to freezing before the band shifts to our south. Hopefully I'm wrong and it'll be nice to see flakes either way, but OP should definitely not be included in the advisory IMO. I still maintain our best chance for measurable is on Sunday. Interestingly, the local workstation ETA is now placing a Georgian Bay/Lake Huron streamer right over metro Buffalo at 10AM tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I know we've been focusing on the LES potential; but I think we could be borderline for wind advisory criteria this evening as well, mainly in the 4PM-10PM timeframe. Having a deep low pass to our northwest is a climatologically favored track for strong winds in WNY, and with strong cold advection crossing the relatively warm lake and rapidly rising surface pressures it could get really gusty for a time. Gusts of 40-45 mph seem very plausible for the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Boy, that WAA les event on Sunday looks pretty damn interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Boy, that WAA les event on Sunday looks pretty damn interesting. The QPF seems to be decreasing with each run on the WAA event, the Euro has nothing at all for us. Either way, looks like we are finally going to get some snow up here, makes me happy were starting off winter the right way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 NWS Binghamton has 2-5 for places to the south of Syracuse. Point and click forecast has 1-3, but given the wind orientation, I think we could cash in under one of those heavier bands. 000 FLUS41 KBGM 230848 HWOBGM HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 348 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 NYZ009-016>018-025-036-037-044>046-240900- NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-TOMPKINS-MADISON- SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO- 348 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY SOUTH OF SYRACUSE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR TOWARDS CORTLAND...AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU IN ONEIDA COUNTY. TRAVELERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The QPF seems to be decreasing with each run on the WAA event, the Euro has nothing at all for us. Either way, looks like we are finally going to get some snow up here, makes me happy were starting off winter the right way! where do you live? And I don't really like at looking at QPF for LES events...especially for relatively marginal ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Stony Brook MM5 for 00z tonight (will it be cold enough to stick?) for Sunday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Stony Brook MM5 for 00z tonight (will it be cold enough to stick?) for Sunday afternoon... damn those all look good.i just cant wait to see these bands set up on radar even if it doesnt snow much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 damn those all look good.i just cant wait to see these bands set up on radar even if it doesnt snow much here. you can see the feeder bands getting going on the cleveland radar right now. the airmass is much colder over the western half of the lake at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 you can see the feeder bands getting going on the cleveland radar right now. the airmass is much colder over the western half of the lake at the moment. yep, looks awesome, got GRlevel3 going right now. Will be awesome to watch this develop over the next 6 hours or so. Watching visible is fun too, just too bad it will be getting dark out in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 43/37 with winds gusting to 38 mph here at 1200' on Cole Road in Orchard Park. There's a bite in the air already; I think the mid-winter feel of tomorrow is going to feel pretty shocking to some. Anyway, it looks like our band should get going around 6-7PM so it'll be interesting to see how much the temp/td can drop between now and then. It'd be nice to get wet bulb temps down to freezing before the onset of the precip, but I think that might be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 43/37 with winds gusting to 38 mph here at 1200' on Cole Road in Orchard Park. There's a bite in the air already; I think the mid-winter feel of tomorrow is going to feel pretty shocking to some. Anyway, it looks like our band should get going around 6-7PM so it'll be interesting to see how much the temp/td can drop between now and then. It'd be nice to get wet bulb temps down to freezing before the onset of the precip, but I think that might be a long shot. Will just be happy to see flakes flying in the air after last winter!Justin the bands forming over the western end of the lake are looking pretty good but is it just me, or are they sinking ever so slowly south as their moving west? On the trajectory from my unprofessional view it looks like the band would start off south of both of us to begin with. Maybe its just skepticism lol. Edit to add: Believe it or not I have a temp of 45.1 but a TD of 34.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It really is too close to call at the moment. Check out the latest workstation ETA from BTV; Orchard Park is right on the line at 10PM tonight: Nail-biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 TD tanking here. Down to 33.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just nudge this 2 or 3 miles NE, please. That's about as good as a Huron connection can get in my part of Chautauqua County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just nudge this 2 or 3 miles NE, please. That's about as good as a Huron connection can get in my part of Chautauqua County. Hope for your sake it does. I know I certainly won't be seeing the jackpot so I hope you do. You better grab some pics if you get dumped on BTW temp is now 43.1 with a TD of 32.9. Winds are ripping here too. Sustained around 30mph gusting in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 T/Td not really dropping that quickly here...from 43/37 an hour ago to 42/35 now. It'll probably take precipitation to get the temp to drop more quickly due to evaporative/diabatic processes. Winds gusting to 41 mph. Precip starting to develop nicely over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The latest RAP is suggesting some moderate snow for the Southern Tier counties into southern Erie and Wyoming counties around 01z tonight. The 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -7C which should be cold enough for snow, with a near saturated region in the dendritic snow growth layer from 775 to 700 mb. You can see this area of precip starting to develop right now over the northwestern part of Lake Erie. It actually looks like a streamer is coming of off Lake St. Clair from the Cleveland radar, which could lead to some locally enhanced snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 LES Advisory just went up for places in the NWS Binghamton Area. Looks like Saturday-Saturday night is when we get the transition to NW winds and advisory level snow off of Ontario Latest snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Got a temp of 38.1 with a TD of 32.7 and already getting flakes mixing in with the rain. Very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just had dinner in the village of Orchard Park where it was actually sleeting quite heavily. It was definitely sleet as opposed to graupel which I was a little surprised to see. Getting a light mixture of rain and sleet here on the hill with a temp/td of 38/33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 We got a pretty heavy shot of graupel for about 20 minutes here near Delaware Park. Back to light rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just had dinner in the village of Orchard Park where it was actually sleeting quite heavily. It was definitely sleet as opposed to graupel which I was a little surprised to see. Getting a light mixture of rain and sleet here on the hill with a temp/td of 38/33. Yes its 37.5/32.2 TD with a sleet snow mix here now, coming down at a good clip, with a little whitening of surfaces already.Edit to add: whered you go to dinner? Mangia and Davids Grille are my favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 *Edit: Flipping to snow already and there's already a dusting on the mulch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 And then there was Oneida County. I'm thinking maybe an advisory for Southern Oneida County in the am possibly. Still 47° here. Down about 10 degrees from this afternoon. Winds shifted to the WNW also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Huge Flakes mixed in with heavy sleet here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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