lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 47. . Sunday Sunny, with a high near 50. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Wednesday Cloudy, with a high near 47. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ Zzz. 11-12 Winter Redux? sure seems like it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 November kinda sucked that year...December rocked. BUF AP only got 6" (below normal) and the southtowns didn't do much better. I was living in Bermuda at that time, but visited home for about 2 weeks during December and got 40" of snow. and i more meant for the southerntier for November/December 08'. Many of them saw over 100" by Christmas some seeing over 60" in just November alone. I totally forgot about 2000 that was awesome up round Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 and i more meant for the southerntier for November/December 08'. Many of them saw over 100" by Christmas some seeing over 60" in just November alone. I totally forgot about 2000 that was awesome up round Buffalo. oh yeah, the southern tier did well...anyone north of let's say Boston didn't do well in November...then cashed in for December. 2000-2001 is the second snowiest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 say no to 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 This is nuts. I dont remember a stretch of November weather like this in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 This is nuts. I dont remember a stretch of November weather like this in a long time. I'll get worried if we see that in mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'll get worried if we see that in mid December. I'd even take it one step further, I'll be worried when I see that in early January. Even December can be a pretty mild snoozefest around here. Such a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 This reminds me of 2006-07 when winter started in mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 This reminds me of 2006-07 when winter started in mid January or 11-12 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 or 11-12 lol. That would imply that we ever actually had a winter last year. It was truly the year without winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 That would imply that we ever actually had a winter last year. It was truly the year without winter. it was total ****. Theres no way I see less snow than last season (36" - which was the lowest at KBUF since they moved to the airport location in 1940) but it sure seems like were heading for a repeat of that. I should calm down though as its only Nov 17 but things arn't looking good and im already several inches behind on snowfall for the season. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'd even take it one step further, I'll be worried when I see that in early January. Even December can be a pretty mild snoozefest around here. Such a shame. nah december snowfall is the most important relative to the season. It's correlation coefficient is 0.65. If you don't have a reasonable December, the winter can really only be "saved" in select years. It be different if we weren't les country. Even in November snow is relatively important with a correlation coefficient of 0.35. The best snowfall years almost always have good November snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 This is nuts. I dont remember a stretch of November weather like this in a long time. I'll one up you with this forecast. Today Sunny, with a high near 48. Light and variable wind. Tonight Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 29. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 52. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 32. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 54. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Stay cool snow lovers, remember; "You should have seen December 1998! After a beautiful warm and sunny November it snowed 21 of the next 24 days". Or even the two winters in the last decade when we still had the Miata out in January. One of those threw a February so fierce my daughter had a total of 5 full school days in the month. Personally, I think the changing nature of the polar weather environment may be creating a "new norm" for us here in the mid-latitudes, but it remains to be seen what it will be. More intra-seasonal variability maybe? Less 'momentum' tied up in the ice equalling more variability in the AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Surprised there isn't more discussion in here regarding next weekend given today's model trends! I'm coming home (to Orchard Park) for Thanksgiving so I've been monitoring snowfall prospects in Upstate NY for a few days now, and if you buy into today's GGEM/ECMWF solutions there is at least limited LES potential beginning on Black Friday or Black Friday night. At face value, the GGEM would probably offer a short duration swly flow event that could impact the BUF metro area (at least the south towns) for a few hours before a secondary trough swings through and shifts the boundary layer wind to a shorter-fetch NW or NNW direction. Obviously it's way too early to get that specific...but to me, this looks like the first legit snow potential for quite a few in LES country. When I was home for T-day two years ago, we experienced a quick but heavy LES event in Orchard Park that dropped about 6" with occasional thunder and lightning. Hoping to have similar luck this year. Think snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Surprised there isn't more discussion in here regarding next weekend given today's model trends! I'm coming home (to Orchard Park) for Thanksgiving so I've been monitoring snowfall prospects in Upstate NY for a few days now, and if you buy into today's GGEM/ECMWF solutions there is at least limited LES potential beginning on Black Friday or Black Friday night. At face value, the GGEM would probably offer a short duration swly flow event that could impact the BUF metro area (at least the south towns) for a few hours before a secondary trough swings through and shifts the boundary layer wind to a shorter-fetch NW or NNW direction. Obviously it's way too early to get that specific...but to me, this looks like the first legit snow potential for quite a few in LES country. When I was home for T-day two years ago, we experienced a quick but heavy LES event in Orchard Park that dropped about 6" with occasional thunder and lightning. Hoping to have similar luck this year. Think snow The GGEM seems to have a slightly more negatively tilted trough at 500 mb than the Euro or the GFS. The 850 mb temperatures also aren't quite as cold under the southwest flow in either the Euro or the GFS. There is decent northwest flow after that period on Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures dropping below -10C, allowing south of Lake Ontario and possibly south of Lake Erie with a Huron connection to see something. We'll have to see exactly how that trough evolves and when the cold air arrives. Either way, it does look like the weather gets more interesting after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Check your inbox Justin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Nice clipper a week from now on 00z GFS for all of upstate. Prob solid WWA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Had a pretty heavy frost here this morning, with calm winds last night and temperatures dropping to around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Had a pretty heavy frost here this morning, with calm winds last night and temperatures dropping to around 30. that thick fog helped too. had bout 1/4" of rime looking stuff on everything this morning. up to 48 already now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The 12z GGEM and the 12z Euro both bring some pretty cold air into most of NY state around the morning of the 24th into the morning of the 25th. The GGEM has 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -11 C by 00z in the 25th, with the Euro showing 850 mb temperatures down to around -12 C by 12z on the 25th. The 12z GFS isn't quite as cold with the -10 C line at 850 mb only reaching northern NY. All of the models show some northwesterly flow developing as a surface low moves off to the northeast, with the Euro showing the best combination of moisture, cold air and fetch. The Canadian model has more of a nnw flow, especially by the time the coldest air arrives. The GFS has a warmer 850 mb temperature around -7 C during the period of greatest moisture and northwest winds, making it difficult to get most of the band in the dendritic snow growth region. Overall, it looks fairly likely that there will be a pretty cold air mass in place sometime next weekend. There may be some potential for lake effect, especially south and east of Lake Ontario, but that all depends on the magnitude of the cold air, the wind direction and amount of synoptic moisture present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Euro looks really intruiguing, IMO, for a possible lake "enhanced" snow event across a large portion of western/central New York beginning later Saturday and lasting into Sunday. It's hard to tell with the relatively crude ECMWF graphics on the PSU e-wall...but it looks like there may be a hint of mid-level deformation judging by the h7 RH fields, extending from Lake Superior and the Georgian Bay down across southern Ontario at 12z Saturday then pivoting eastward to near the SLV and Adirondacks by 12z Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a general area of light synoptic snowfall with embedded pockets of heavier, more "squally" snows especially focused on areas that typically do well with a NW/NNW flow. Could be decent for a lot of the higher terrain south of the Thruway if that comes to fruition. I'm still not ruling out the possibility of a short duration SW flow single band scenario affecting the Buffalo metro area out ahead of this feature as there will be CAA occurring on a WSW/SW flow...but I could see moisture in the dendritic growth layer being somewhat of an issue as a pretty decent punch of dry air surges in at the h85/h7 levels immediately behind the cold front. Plus, there will probably be a lot of shear immediately following FROPA...and that doesn't help either. Again, we are still way too far out to pinpoint such fine details, but at the very least it looks like a rather blustery weekend in Upstate NY with at least a low probability of accumulating snows affecting a good portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Euro looks really intruiguing, IMO, for a possible lake "enhanced" snow event across a large portion of western/central New York beginning later Saturday and lasting into Sunday. It's hard to tell with the relatively crude ECMWF graphics on the PSU e-wall...but it looks like there may be a hint of mid-level deformation judging by the h7 RH fields, extending from Lake Superior and the Georgian Bay down across southern Ontario at 12z Saturday then pivoting eastward to near the SLV and Adirondacks by 12z Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a general area of light synoptic snowfall with embedded pockets of heavier, more "squally" snows especially focused on areas that typically do well with a NW/NNW flow. Could be decent for a lot of the higher terrain south of the Thruway if that comes to fruition. I'm still not ruling out the possibility of a short duration SW flow single band scenario affecting the Buffalo metro area out ahead of this feature as there will be CAA occurring on a WSW/SW flow...but I could see moisture in the dendritic growth layer being somewhat of an issue as a pretty decent punch of dry air surges in at the h85/h7 levels immediately behind the cold front. Plus, there will probably be a lot of shear immediately following FROPA...and that doesn't help either. Again, we are still way too far out to pinpoint such fine details, but at the very least it looks like a rather blustery weekend in Upstate NY with at least a low probability of accumulating snows affecting a good portion of the region. I told some of the guys on our trap shooting team to expect 20s, relatively strong NW breezes, and snow cover/snow showers when we shoot in Ellicottville Sunday. I haven't seen strong signs of anything of the warning level variety given the transient nature of the system and NW flow. The problem for BUF with this one is it appears (at least right now) that the real cold air doesn't arrive until the secondary cold front passes, shifting the winds WNW/NW. But I agree that there's a reasonable chance at measurable even for those outside the squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The 00z Euro suggests the potential for a brief Lake Huron connection for areas south of Lake Erie sometime Saturday night, with NNW flow and decent moisture up to 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Id be happy to see my first inch this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The 12z GGEM continues to look halfway decent for a short-lived single band event impacting parts of the BUF metro area (at least the south towns) for several hours later Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the secondary trough. Moisture in the dendritic growth layer and boundary layer wind shear will be key...but I like the way this looks. Other models still have to get on board, but this is a setup that could produce something: In addition, that trough could produce a graupelly WINDEX event as it traverses the rest of the state during the day Saturday...especially since parts of Central/Eastern NY could break out into sunshine following the passage of the initial cold front, which will really steepen up the lapse rates. Wouldn't rule out some thunder and lightning if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Hour 115-120 look good on the GGEM Justin. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like winter starts this coming week. BACK TO REALITY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEEPEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SET UP ON AN INITIAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT DELTA T VALUES AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -10C...LAKE INDUCED CAPES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG...AS WELL AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 10K FEET. NEGATING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURATION OF FAVOR SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHIFTING WINDS...WITH INITIAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW VEERING TO NORTH NORTHWEST...CREATING LIMIT LAKE FETCH AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUPPORT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OFF LAKE ERIE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LIMITED FETCH REALLY COMES INTO PLAY HERE WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL TO WELL EAST OF ROCHESTER. LOWER CONFIDENCE EMERGES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME. A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES REGIME AS THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR A MUCH COOLER PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS THE POLAR VORTEX SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA SENDING COLDER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD. PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES LOOK HARDER TO NAIL DOWN...WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW POSSIBILITY KICKING OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT WITH COLD AIR CONTINUALLY IN PLACE THERE GOOD EASILY BE PERIODIC LAKE RESPONSES ENHANCING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATIONS FOR ANY SPECIFIC ENHANCED SNOWFALL THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FULLAUTO Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Any thoughts on Tug Hill/Lewis County getting blasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Any thoughts on Tug Hill/Lewis County getting blasted? I thought this part addresses your question? THE LIMITED FETCH REALLY COMES INTO PLAY HERE WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL TO WELL EAST OF ROCHESTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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