lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 Near Thanksgiving and beyond on the 16-day GFS (http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMSV), there's a heck of a lot of precip and reasonably cold temps. cold rain is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I hit 71° yesterday and KRME had 69 officially. I'm at 66 already at 11:15 am. Everyone will cry tomorrow when it's 30 degrees colder. Such is life in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Not to shabby Tony.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I do hope this thread comes back to life this winter.............In-case it does.....I've made a winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-official-winter-outlook-for-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Not to shabby Tony.......... The clouds took over. Got up to 68 this morning. We'll see that again maybe in March 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I do hope this thread comes back to life this winter.............In-case it does.....I've made a winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...k-for-2012.html I enjoyed that and learned from it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I do hope this thread comes back to life this winter.............In-case it does.....I've made a winter outlook http://wx4cast.blogs...k-for-2012.html Nice writeup. The models are suggesting that we might get into a cold period late November into early December, with the MJO progressing somewhere between phases 8 to 2. This also coincides with the NAO being forecast to drop somewhere between neutral to negative. The PNA still looks to be negative however, which could limit the magnitude of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nice writeup. The models are suggesting that we might get into a cold period late November into early December, with the MJO progressing somewhere between phases 8 to 2. This also coincides with the NAO being forecast to drop somewhere between neutral to negative. The PNA still looks to be negative however, which could limit the magnitude of the cold air. Thank you Yes they are showing that.............It's going to be an interesting winter ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Hi Rebecca- going to have to take exception to, "Now there is no correlation between warm lake water temps and the amount of lake effect snow in the winter. Because if there was last winter would have been a bonanza for the lake effect snowbells.(sic)" Firstly, it's a false analogy- last winter's fail on LES was a wind directional and air temp issue. Secondly, if you consider the three main factors of fetch (which is really about direction), wind speed/air temp, and water temp as they produce LES, they function as algebraics to produce liklihood and/or quantity. For instance; (given fetch/direction) Warm lake/Cold wind= LES, w/ wind speed as the determinant Cold lake/ Cold wind= same, but needs more velocity/coherence (narrower bands), etc., etc., but warm winds are the killer no matter what the lake temps. Obviously, I'm simplifying here but the principle holds whether you're discussing Lake Ontario, The Sea of Japan, etc. Given yearly norms of wind and temps (as if such a thing exists..), a cold lake early would mean less LES regionally, no? Seen this off the North Atlantic, Lake Champlain, and Lake Ontario personally. Onto the 'Wooly Bear Forecast'- 1st consistent portion of winter from Nov 20- Jan 20, 2nd from Jan 20 - March 1st, 3rd is just March. Personally, I think it's all on the AO, negative and it'll be cold, grey, and gritty. Neutral and we might have a 'normal' year, slighty to and predominantly positive and we're on the see-saw, with Ohio Valley storms coming up here. (....but I never bet against the Wooly Bears as to timing.) Best to all, Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The clouds took over. Got up to 68 this morning. We'll see that again maybe in March 2013. I actually enjoyed the warmth the past 2 days, and then wake up this morning with everything coated in about 1/2" of snow. It was not sticking much lower than my house but it was snowing to work at 1400'. Glad I got lots of outside work done this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 0.92" in the gauge this morning and 38 degrees. Quite the change from yesterday. No snow here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Vehicles showing up in Boonville (1150 elev.) from further west/higher up with 3-4" of snow on the roof this morning. First sighting this year of anything other than skim. Ground temps still too high to stick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Looks like some lake effect rain/snow showers are starting to consolidate into a band moving into southern Jefferson County. The boundary layer is still somewhat moist and the 850 mb temperatures should drop to around -8C. allowing the lake effect to persist. As the ridge begins to enter the region later this afternoon, the activity should diminish to a few flurries/rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Saw a picture from SUNY Oneonta with maybe 2" on the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Getting some graupel/sleet mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Locations above 1500' had a solid coating this morning, all gone now. Had nothing at 1200' IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The rain ended as snow here ...enough to give a good coating, maybe .3". It dropped to 32 while it snowed and then only rebounded to 39 for the high. Saw a picture from SUNY Oneonta with maybe 2" on the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Wish we had a November like November '08 here. That was an awesome year for lake effect. Many places had over 100" by Christmas and some places landed up with 300" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Wish we had a November like November '08 here. That was an awesome year for lake effect. Many places had over 100" by Christmas and some places landed up with 300" for the season. 45" that November, nearly all of which fell in ~2 weeks. 175" for the season. That was an awesome winter. Unfortunately this may be my last winter in WNY. With any luck I'll either end up in Chicago or near San Francisco, though there's a chance I'll stay closer in Rochester (or maybe Connecticut). Hopefully this is a nice last season because it's unlikely I'll end up living in this region ever again (or at least until retirement- but let's make it through college first). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 45" that November, nearly all of which fell in ~2 weeks. 175" for the season. That was an awesome winter. Unfortunately this may be my last winter in WNY. With any luck I'll either end up in Chicago or near San Francisco, though there's a chance I'll stay closer in Rochester (or maybe Connecticut). Hopefully this is a nice last season because it's unlikely I'll end up living in this region ever again (or at least until retirement- but let's make it through college first). good luck and hope this winter shapes up good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Week before Christmas- Boonville, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Week before Christmas- Boonville, 2008 so jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Looks like seasonal and dry over the next week. Highs in the low 40's, lows from 25-30. Still searching for the first inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Looks like seasonal and dry over the next week. Highs in the low 40's, lows from 25-30. Still searching for the first inch here. only got 0.1" here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 so jealous You should have seen December 1998! After a beautiful warm and sunny November it snowed 21 of the next 24 days (imagine the same scene with two more feet on everything...), ...and then it stopped. Typical LES- my neighbors tell me that the really big years were the same except that the spells just kept going. As troublesome as the weather here can be, I'm almost looking forward to the "Symphony for Snowblowers" that broadcasts each evening. I'm a shoveller though, it's my daily workout. That westerly flow's been pretty consistent so far this fall, just need the temps..... For a vicarious thrill, just watch the Montague Doppler- http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tyx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Wish we had a November like November '08 here. That was an awesome year for lake effect. Many places had over 100" by Christmas and some places landed up with 300" for the season. December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 December? yes and November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 yes and November November kinda sucked that year...December rocked. BUF AP only got 6" (below normal) and the southtowns didn't do much better. I was living in Bermuda at that time, but visited home for about 2 weeks during December and got 40" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The greatest November-December combo in BUF's history was during the 2000-2001 winter. 45.6" in November following by 50.3" in December...95.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 47. . Sunday Sunny, with a high near 50. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Wednesday Cloudy, with a high near 47. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ Zzz. 11-12 Winter Redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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