Voyager Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Why is no one talking about this giant rainstorm/heavy rain event coming tmrw night? Don't know. This subforum has been rather quiet lately. Along with the rain, at least in my location, it's going to be quite windy with gusts to 30 mph forecasted on Tuesday. There is also a decent chance of severe weather for central and eastern PA as indicated on SPC's Day 3 map. Some locations also dipped into the 30's this morning. Bradford 37°F Butler 39°F New Castle 39°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Dang I'm in 30%!! I'd rather talk about heavy rain/ thunderstorms than chilly early autumn nights lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 First real push of fall coming with this front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Looks like between 1 1/2-2" rain for down this way, like Voyager said, could be windy too, maybe with some afternoon storms Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Here are a few maps to start off your Monday morning... SPC does have eastern PA in a 30% risk right now... I still say we seem to have better severe events when not in the target zone... Current TORCON for central and eastern PA is a 3. SPC and TORCON forecasts were nearly similar for last weekend (not quite same set up this time though) and it was nearly all a brief damaging wind event. This time around, more rain before gusty winds could present more of a threat in terms of bringing down trees/etc with a more saturated ground. HPC has a good portion of central/eastern PA in a slight risk for excessive rainfall with significant QPF potential. The models have been pretty consistent in showing a 1.5-2" rain event for KMDT since last week. Will be interesting to see how convective this system can become for some areas to reach above 2" for rainfall. With PWAT anomalies of at least 2-3 standard deviations... it does not take much instability to really tap into that moisture. Last September we had slightly higher PWAT anomaly values with a similar strong southerly wind and we know how much rain came from that. This system is not a tropical remnant so no repeat by any means, but to me this looks like greatest significant rainfall potential we have had since spring or since well last September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Looks like between 1 1/2-2" rain for down this way, like Voyager said, could be windy too, maybe with some afternoon storms Tuesday. Just checked my zone forecast and per CTP, gusts COULD reach 45 mph on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Boy I hope we see this early and often out of the Gulf this winter, geesh I had to check the date on it. At any rate this looks one of our first decent rainstorms we've seen since the spring, and it looks to be a good soaker. In terms of severe, the big issue is going to mainly be with the frontal passage. Sort of similar to the event a couple Saturdays ago... If we get a convective line going with the front, it's going to tap some of the strong winds that aren't going to be too far aloft and perhaps produce some damaging winds. And once again i would think our eastern areas have the best chance of seeing some partial clearing/heating during the day tomorrow prior to the frontal passage thus making any squall line associated with the front more potent there. Timing looks better though than the last event with the front coming through later in the day so I def wouldn't completely rule out issues in the central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Looks like some strong winds will impact much of the area, especially across the higher terrain. BGM but a High Wind Watch up for what appears to be their entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 My maps for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Looking at models not feeling much tomorrow. Maybe a few gusts and some isolated 2" amounts...just not much to write home over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 This'll probably be like the last "100 percent soaker" we had ... got a trace of rain in three days from that system. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like a decent storm for ya folks. You are right mag, it is nice to see that Miller A machine rev its engine so early in the season! Rents told me they had a low of 37 the other night, not to shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This'll probably be like the last "100 percent soaker" we had ... got a trace of rain in three days from that system. Ha! Haha I think we're in pretty good shape for a 100 percent soaker this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like a decent storm for ya folks. You are right mag, it is nice to see that Miller A machine rev its engine so early in the season! Rents told me they had a low of 37 the other night, not to shabby. I saw you post a while back that you were going to be in Alaska for a month, which part are you gonna be at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I saw you post a while back that you were going to be in Alaska for a month, which part are you gonna be at? South of Anchorage. I will be 15 miles offshore. It won't be until another month however. I hope to have a decent camera by then, so maybe I can share some pics with you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 My thoughts on tomorrow. The Hazardous Weather Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for Tuesday September 18th, 2012 for most of Maryland/New Jersey, Southeast New York, Eastern Pennsylvania, and Eastern Virginia. A slight risk surrounds the moderate risk. A potent cold front will push toward the region on Tuesday along with a strong low pressure system that will push northeast across Southeast Canada. Instability will not be great and could be a limiting factor however, str ong forcing and low level winds pose a threat for a line of damaging winds. Also a few tornadoes are possible ahead and along a potential squall line due to increased low level shear. At this time 45% probabilities have been introduced with the black outlined area denoting a significant threat of severe weather. This system has a moderate busting level as well if the squall line struggles to develop, severe weather will be limited. Here is the categorical outlook, probabilities to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 NWS basically says an inch of rain and breezy. Maybe some severe type gusts far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 NWS basically says an inch of rain and breezy. Maybe some severe type gusts far southeast. Good, they are usually wrong anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am a big fan of the RPM and it slams SC into eastern pa tomorrow. Click on regional http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Significant slug of rainfall over Eastern KY/TN and western WVA will continue to move itself into PA overnight... possibly focusing on the western and central thirds initially, but eventually delivering decent rainfall to everyone by daybreak. Starting to watch the HRRR as it seems to have a pretty good handle on the large rain shield and is starting to get into the range of the possible wind issues with any convection tomorrow. Latest couple runs have had an NCFR type feature on it. Should note that its only into central PA by the edge of its range (approx mid-day/early afternoon) so it's probably not going to have a good handle on that type of a feature yet, but that's the kind of thing we'll be watching to possibly tap down the winds, which by the way are bonkers at 850mb (60-70kt easily). Further east and especially northeast towards BGM's high wind watch region would especially be interested in the evolution of any kind of squall line, as they are the best candidates to see a small amount of CAPE build up and aid the line or even a couple low topped cells prior to the front. Regardless, some decent winds (30-40mph+ gusts) are possible over all the high terrain (Laurels, high central ridges, Pocono's) IMO given such a strong low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 10% tornado 30% wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 First meso discussion of the day out: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1957.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 First meso discussion of the day out: http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1957.html Pretty decent rain now in H-Burg. Maybe some fun later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah, not sure why southern pa was included...virtually no instability there with moderate rain and heavy clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah, not sure why southern pa was included...virtually no instability there with moderate rain and heavy clouds. Cause if you would read the disco, they expect clearing later. It is 10am, still have plenty of time. Plus forcing is making up for lack of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty decent rain now in H-Burg. Maybe some fun later this afternoon. I'm up to 1.07" already for the event. A short while ago I posted 0.87" in the Philly thread, but a shot of 2.00 inch/hour rates bumped that up pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm up to 1.07" already for the event. A short while ago I posted 0.87" in the Philly thread, but a shot of 2.00 inch/hour rates bumped that up pretty quick. I'm at work, no gauge. I'll check the airport in a little bit. Wind picked up too, it waited until i had to go outside and blow sideways, my rain jacket did nothing to keep my legs dry..lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Storm is pushing through quick should be through by 130 for most. Where is actual cold front at and will that have any active weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Man, between here and York are getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch now for south of M/D line. One thing on the cloud cover preventing severe, for whatever reason, that doesn't seem to matter as much this time of year like it does in the summer. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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