canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS gives MDT two 100+mph 850mb readings, at 0z and 3z Tuesday. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 started a sandy obs thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37511-central-pa-sandy-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The gust potential here is pretty amazing. Under a mile above us, winds will rage over 100 mph. It won't take a lot to mix some of that towards the surface. As I said in an earlier post, a professor here was talking about the hilly terrain could cause turbulent eddies to form and transfer some of the higher altitude winds to the sufrace. It will be interesting to see how strong the wind will get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jmister I have a wind question. I know 10m winds are basically surface, but what, how often and at what percent do 850 winds get brought to the surface? I truly haven't a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jmister I have a wind question. I know 10m winds are basically surface, but what, how often and at what percent do 850 winds get brought to the surface? I truly haven't a clue. I don't think there is a definitive answer to that. It's highly dependent on your topography and dynamics of the storm. If you live in a hilly area, the amount that makes it to the surface is harder to predict and could be higher than in mostly flat terrain. Also, stability plays a role as discussed a lot in the SNE thread. A stable layer obviously cuts down on gust potential. Sun tends to destroy inversions and makes the boundary layer less stable. Overall, I'd say anywhere between as little as 30% to as much as maybe 75% in ideal conditions make it to the surface. PS - for kicks I was looking at AccuWx's forecast for wind output and saw a max gust at State College of 85 mph Cut off 20 mph and I could believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have to wonder whether the Penn State UP campus (and perhaps others) will shut down at any point during this storm. I am guessing not tomorrow, but it would seem a definite possibility on Tuesday and perhaps beyond. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have to wonder whether the Penn State UP campus will shut down Don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Don't bother. That's what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have to wonder whether the Penn State UP campus (and perhaps others) will shut down at any point during this storm. I am guessing not tomorrow, but it would seem a definite possibility on Tuesday and perhaps beyond. Any thoughts? I've been getting psutxt's the past couple hours from about 5 or so other campuses that have closed so far. I'd be quite surprised if main campus closed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't think there is a definitive answer to that. It's highly dependent on your topography and dynamics of the storm. If you live in a hilly area, the amount that makes it to the surface is harder to predict and could be higher than in mostly flat terrain. Also, stability plays a role as discussed a lot in the SNE thread. A stable layer obviously cuts down on gust potential. Sun tends to destroy inversions and makes the boundary layer less stable. Overall, I'd say anywhere between as little as 30% to as much as maybe 75% in ideal conditions make it to the surface. PS - for kicks I was looking at AccuWx's forecast for wind output and saw a max gust at State College of 85 mph Cut off 20 mph and I could believe it! Thanks, that makes sense. Any thoughts for MDT (several of us are clustered around HBG proper) on peak gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jmister I have a wind question. I know 10m winds are basically surface, but what, how often and at what percent do 850 winds get brought to the surface? I truly haven't a clue. Heavier rain bands with this will mix high winds down as well. And given your location, your in a pretty good place to get hit with any kind of remaining core structure Sandy has when it rolls through. I am pretty concerned about you guys in the southeastern part of our thread wind-wise. I could see gusts up to 70 or maybe even higher down there at the height of the storm. Plus i'm sure the Sus valley still has alot of leaves, whereas back here in the central we have the vast majority of leaves off the trees. There's just ridiculous winds aloft with this, not to mention this is coming into the coast at an angle hardly ever seen. There's also the enormous size and extremely deep pressure with this as well. I'd be ready for a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 lol, speaking of PSU - they basically just posted "ALERT: Campus is open". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have to wonder whether the Penn State UP campus (and perhaps others) will shut down at any point during this storm. I am guessing not tomorrow, but it would seem a definite possibility on Tuesday and perhaps beyond. Any thoughts? Funny u mention that, I Just got a PSUtxt (i'm sure you did too) "High winds and floods to come from Hurricane Sandy. University is monitoring. Campus is open." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Heavier rain bands with this will mix high winds down as well. And given your location, your in a pretty good place to get hit with any kind of remaining core structure Sandy has when it rolls through. I am pretty concerned about you guys in the southeastern part of our thread wind-wise. I could see gusts up to 70 or maybe even higher down there at the height of the storm. Plus i'm sure the Sus valley still has alot of leaves, whereas back here in the central we have the vast majority of leaves off the trees. There's just ridiculous winds aloft with this, not to mention this is coming into the coast at an angle hardly ever seen. There's also the enormous size and extremely deep pressure with this as well. I'd be ready for a wild ride. You totaly need to work on your bedside manner, dude. Damn right it will be wild. I just hope I have no windows break, not much to do if that happens. Siding and shingles are all replaceable fairly easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Heavier rain bands with this will mix high winds down as well. And given your location, your in a pretty good place to get hit with any kind of remaining core structure Sandy has when it rolls through. I am pretty concerned about you guys in the southeastern part of our thread wind-wise. I could see gusts up to 70 or maybe even higher down there at the height of the storm. Plus i'm sure the Sus valley still has alot of leaves, whereas back here in the central we have the vast majority of leaves off the trees. There's just ridiculous winds aloft with this, not to mention this is coming into the coast at an angle hardly ever seen. There's also the enormous size and extremely deep pressure with this as well. I'd be ready for a wild ride. I took this pic while standing on the roof of our front porch (I was cleaning out the spouts/gutters) just to show how much foliage still remains. I'm worried about the maple, it isn't in the best shape and has some dead limbs. Neighbors power lines travel right through it and PPL didn't feel the need to trim anything even though I called and requested it several times this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://live.psu.edu/story/62308 "At this time, there are no plans to cancel or delay classes on the University Park campus, according to Brian Bittner, Penn State's emergency manager, since the brunt of the storm will not be focused over central Pennsylvania, although residents will experience inclement weather." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You totaly need to work on your bedside manner, dude. Damn right it will be wild. I just hope I have no windows break, not much to do if that happens. Siding and shingles are all replaceable fairly easily. Haha. Our neighbors just had their shingles replaced last week. For whatever reason, the roofing people didn't finish the last portion on their small addition off the main part of the house. You'd think they'd try to finish that weekend or not given the rain and wind coming. The section is tarped.. hopefully the tarp is anchored well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://live.psu.edu/story/62308 "At this time, there are no plans to cancel or delay classes on the University Park campus, according to Brian Bittner, Penn State's emergency manager, since the brunt of the storm will not be focused over central Pennsylvania, although residents will experience inclement weather." (shakes head) I remember a few years ago (Feb '09) when I was still commuting to class up there we had a high wind event and right after I took the bus to the Walker building they shut the roads down around the stadium cuz the winds were so strong they blew a couple of the panels off the Beaver stadium scoreboard into the parking area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Brian Bittner must be a cousin of Mayor Bloomberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winter flags down south have now been lifted to blizzard warnings.. insane. That's going to be one heck of a snowstorm for the folks that are going to be chasing it. Speaking of the snow impact, I wouldn't be surprised if CTP eventually put up an advisory for Somerset county and perhaps even Cambria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 (shakes head) I remember a few years ago (Feb '09) when I was still commuting to class up there we had a high wind event and right after I took the bus to the Walker building they shut the roads down around the stadium cuz the winds were so strong they blew a couple of the panels off the Beaver stadium scoreboard into the parking area. It will never cease to amaze me that schools and universities will cancel classes for 4 inches of snow, but if you get 60-70 MPH wind gusts over a 12 hour period, and 3-5 inches of rain, they say all is a go. IMO, having people outside in those sorts of winds is dangerous. I always felt that if winds were gusting over 60 MPH in an area where you have a ton of trees, and have to send 7 and 8 year olds to the bus stop, it is an incredibly dumb mistake to send those kids out in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here is my thoughts a breakdown time line for Cumberland, Adams, York and Lancaster, Dauphin Counties. Now-7pm Light showers or drizzle at times. Winds 10-15mph, gust to 20mph. 7pm-12am Light to moderate rain. Winds 15-20mph, gust to 25mph. 12am-8am Periods of light rain, becoming heavier toward the end of the period. Winds 15-20mph, gust to 30mph. 8am-2pm Heavy rain, with tropical downpours at times. Rain rates approaching .5-1" per hour at times. Winds 20-30mph, gust to 55mph. 2pm-5pm Heavy rain, with tropical downpours continuing. Rain rates .5-1" per hour. Winds 30-40mph, gust to 65mph. 5pm-12am Heavy rain continues and flooding maybe occurring in some areas. Tropical downpours. Winds 35-45mph, gust to 70mph. 12am-8am Periods of moderate to heavy rain slowly becoming lighter towards 8am. Winds 25-35mph, gust to 60mph. A possible lull in winds come as the low moves near or overhead. 8am-8pm Periods of light to moderate rain. Could see some snow flakes mix in, in some areas, especially over the higher terrain. Winds 15-25mph, gust to 50mph early diminishing to 35mph late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When was the last time UPark actually close for a weather event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I've noticed that both the central PA thread and the western PA/Pit thread are at or over 1000 posts, what are thoughts on maybe making a new thread merging both regions for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 CTP's new update for my area is just wow. Rain. High near 45. Very windy, with a northwest wind 43 to 47 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Odd they lowered mine: Monday Occasional rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 51. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Monday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 42. Windy, with a north wind around 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tuesday Rain. High near 48. Windy, with a northeast wind 32 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Odd they lowered mine: Monday Occasional rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 51. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Monday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 42. Windy, with a north wind around 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tuesday Rain. High near 48. Windy, with a northeast wind 32 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. LOL. I just look and like you are the only county randomly only at 60mph. Don't use point and click forecast though. They suck. Here is the grid forecast for Cumberland county. Expires:201210290945;;589246 FPUS51 KCTP 282141 ZFPCTP ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 PAZ063-290945- CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARLISLE 541 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...DECREASING TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. I still don't know why they got the strongest gust Tuesday. Should be Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Liking that the NAM (12z and 18z), Euro, and the majority of the 15z SREFs all give me some snow out of this, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 LOL. I just look and like you are the only county randomly only at 60mph. Don't use point and click forecast though. They suck. Here is the grid forecast for Cumberland county. Expires:201210290945;;589246 FPUS51 KCTP 282141 ZFPCTP ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 PAZ063-290945- CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARLISLE 541 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. VERY WINDY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...DECREASING TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. I still don't know why they got the strongest gust Tuesday. Should be Monday night. Never use point-and-click, always my zip which picks up my exact location. Bizarre and I hope iris accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.