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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Latest CTP discussion...

FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON SANDY AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS

OVER THE REGION.

OVERALL...THE SCENARIO REMAINS ONE OF WAITING FOR CONSENSUS ON THE

NORTHWESTWARD CURL OF SANDY AFTER IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT

SPREAD REMAINS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY SOLUTIONS...RANGING FROM

LANDFALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DEL MARVA

PENINSULA TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO FAVOR EITHER A CENTRAL MD

EASTERN SHORE TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TRACK...OR COASTAL NJ INTO

SOUTHEAST PA TRACK...BUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SHED MORE LIGHT ON

THAT.

WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE...

PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE BOTH OPERATIONAL

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 80 TO 100 KT 850 MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. FRIGHTENING TO SAY THE

LEAST. FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING THREAT ALONG WITH

DAMAGING WINDS LEADING TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE THE

PRIME THREATS...AND THE IMPACT COULD BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE`VE

SEEN FROM ANY STORM IN RECENT MEMORY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A

HISTORIC STORM...THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE DETAILS AND REQUIRES

GREATER CONSENSUS AND CERTAINTY TO BE REACHED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BEYOND THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...A GRADUAL DECAY/FILLING OF THE

CYCLONE WILL TAKE PLACE WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENING A

FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

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Yeah...this could be really bad. To our weather guys, what would 80 to 100 kts. at 850mb translate to at the surface? 50 to 60 mph?

80 kts is a little over 90 mph, and IF this were the case at 850 mb i think atleast 60 mph winds would mix down to the surface

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Well that's a good thing though, we don't need any wind damage. So just breezy and rainy hopefully. Just getting mixed signals with the NWS saying historic and unprecedented...and then hearing 40mph gusts. But like I said, high winds are never ever a good thing anyway.

i think the rain will be the biggest threat for us. Prob even more so up my way than yours with the GFS spitting out well over 5" of rain here (7.28" to be exact). Rain like that will cause serious flooding.
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