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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Wow UNV gets under 960mb, I'm sure that would shatter any observed low pressure records.. and i'm sure same would go for a lot of other places. 18z def went towards the Euro lead of a mid-atlantic impact.

I was thinking the same thing...and this late into the season. " Really impressive" Was wondering what the recorded current low was.

Potter

That's hilarious!!!

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I was thinking the same thing...and this late into the season. " Really impressive" Was wondering what the recorded current low was.

Potter

That's hilarious!!!

Thats probably a good question for the PA State Climatologist office up there on campus. The 93 blizzard I think dipped into the high 970s at UNV. Below 960 would be unprecedented. Only other storms I could really think of offhand that might have anywhere near a comparable pressure is '54 Hazel and the '50 great Appalachian storm.

Potter, haha.. It's kinda funny cuz Henry has been riding the OTS train with Sandy hard this week citing the -NAO would pop a northeast storm regardless. Which had def been a viable scenario except that said -NAO looks to be ridiculously low enough to actually help make the "thing that just doesn't happen".. happen.

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Mag serious question, say it plays out like the EURO shows, what would the NWS CTP put up for us? Would it be an Inland Tropical Storm warning? Or would they go with a high wind warning along with a flood watch? And with Euro track, what would main threat be for us here in CPA?

Since by the time it gets up this way it'll be merging and transitioning into an extratropical storm.. it'll most likely be the usual wind products, and probably enough for high wind warnings. Wind and especially flooding would be the main threat with a Euro solution. Though wind in areas with alot of foliaged trees plus the saturated ground could make for big issues as well. I do think there's a chance the storm doesn't back in with such pronounced westerly trajectory and/or ends up making landfall further up the coast. And of course if the low ultimately tracks from say NYC to central upstate NY, that would reintroduce the other potential threat that currently resides well southwest on the 12z Euro and 18z GFS. Still a couple days to go before any details can get hashed out with any confidence.

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Dr. Young (PSU professor and self-proclaimed weather weenie) mentioned an interesting thing concerning wind. He said that out here in the hilly/mountainous terrain, the high peaks will create large turbulent eddies that could drive down higher-level wind not normally expected in a flatter region near the coast.

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How plausible is it?

At this point, I'd say not very. If any other model supported the cooler temps, then we'd have a different story. I am curious to see if maybe the higher resolution of the NAM picks up better on dynamic cooling. I mean at UNV we are hovering around 0 at 850 throughout the onset of precip...

I don't think the strength of the storm is as important for cold as is the tropical vs. extratropical aspect. Obviously a more tropical system will bring in much warmer air than a mostly transitioned storm.

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He must have got lost on his trip out to sea.

I know right! I admit though, I would be lying if I didn't like his winter :weenie:ism.

If you're still holding out hope for snow...00z NAM is about the best solution we've seen since Tuesday.

Yep, and I still think eventhough its the long rang NAM, it has the right general idea with regards to the storm. I just find it hard to believe with such a dynamic setup, you don't receive any snowfall. I also trust the NAM's temperature profile usually more than any other model out there when it comes to winter weather. I'm willing to bet by Saturday, some models will be showing some areas receiving 12"+ , the setup is just perfect IF the storm makes landfall near LI.

Yep, was thinking the same thing. If extrapolated out, the low would track into NY state, and wrap cold air into a lot of PA I would think.

The issue is that it is the NAM.

It might be the long rang NAM, but I really do think it has the right general idea with regards to the colder solution.

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