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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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i would think you sit in pretty good position to send us some pictures of snowflakes....I know many are talking a NY landfall and i can't help but have Irene in my head. Sure if Sandy hits NY, thats a little more north, i know i'm the least experienced in this thread, but couldn't the winds be similar for the lower susq valley from this as was Irene?

possibly yes and possibly no... Irene was weakening as it moved north of the Carolinas and I believe they held on to the "hurricane" status too long since they had built all the hype up for a hurricane to hit new york... will depend on size of wind field, strength, track, etc but it is possible to see the same and possible to see higher or even lower when compared to Irene... If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly.... I hope that makes sense

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Good question - what were they down there with Irene?

5-6 more months for snow chances....as Voyager said I'd rather not have a big snow now. I still got fall garden stuff to harvest and when we get October snow it destroys everything :ee:

Eskimo Joe said the other day sust. around 35 with gusts to 57.

i agree about the snow. I was telling my friend who is Fire Chief, that if for some reason we ended up with a decent snow here, would be devastating because of all of the leaves still on the trees, yet one scenario was showing over 5" rain and high winds. Whats the saying, pick your poison?

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possibly yes and possibly no... Irene was weakening as it moved north of the Carolinas and I believe they held on to the "hurricane" status too long since they had built all the hype up for a hurricane to hit new york... will depend on size of wind field, strength, track, etc but it is possible to see the same and possible to see higher or even lower when compared to Irene... If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly.... I hope that makes sense

Yep, makes sense thank you.

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If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly....

I was thinking this myself, but was reluctant to post it as I don't consider myself technically weather savvy. Thanks!

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Latest Vortex Data Message (VDM):

000

URNT12 KNHC 251221 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 25/11:47:10Z

B. 21 deg 38 min N

075 deg 31 min W

C. 700 mb 2816 m

D. 70 kt

E. 286 deg 9 nm

F. 051 deg 58 kt

G. 300 deg 12 nm

H. 968 mb

I. 8 C / 3049 m

J. 18 C / 3049 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. E33/35/25

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF308 0618A SANDY OB 08 CCA

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT SE QUAD 11:53:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 11:52:00...corrected

;

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I was thinking this myself, but was reluctant to post it as I don't consider myself technically weather savvy. Thanks!

Having the models show a tropical or once tropical system turn west is almost unheard of... it just never happens around here... a more Euro landfall near delmarva would create significant wind/flooding problems for NJ/Del/NY as well as PA but then they would also end up in that northeast quadrant... so there would be a tornado threat with onshore winds as well

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Nope.

Euro ensembles, as per am19psu, shows 8-12 for UNV, so can't discount it as yet.

My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change!

did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way.

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My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change!

did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way.

Not sure, he told me via email and is going to be away. He said he might come on this afternoon.

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My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change!

did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way.

We may see flurries late around here but just based on modeled data it does not look like anything that would accumulate... 6-8" of rain is what the euro ensemble is projecting for southeast PA

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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING

A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS

RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A

FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND

CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL

HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND

UNSETTLED.

CISCO

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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING

A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS

RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A

FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND

CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL

HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND

UNSETTLED.

CISCO

Annnndddd now Frankenstorm is becoming a meme...

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I keep thinking of Putting on the Ritz from Young Frankenstein for some reason.

More on topic, anyone else kinda stunned by Sandy's satellite presentation right now on the loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa....-avn-short.html

did you notice as that spins around, it almost looks like a face with 2 eyeballs

great, now that song will be stuck in my head

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did you notice as that spins around, it almost looks like a face with 2 eyeballs

great, now that song will be stuck in my head

PUTTIN ON THE RRRRIITTTTTZZZZZ

btw, I have no idea on snow with this but the UKMET has a great snow track for true central PA

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37409-east-coast-threatsandy-part-iii/page__st__420#entry1812275

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PUTTIN ON THE RRRRIITTTTTZZZZZ

btw, I have no idea on snow with this but the UKMET has a great snow track for true central PA

http://www.americanw...20#entry1812275

wow, you should sign up for idol, great voice...

I still think til its all said and done, you may get some measurable snow.

I know someone spoke of lake effect snow, i guess that still possiable right, the way the winds would wrap around? I guess temps come into play as well right?

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wow, you should sign up for idol, great voice...

I still think til its all said and done, you may get some measurable snow.

I know someone spoke of lake effect snow, i guess that still possiable right, the way the winds would wrap around? I guess temps come into play as well right?

Yes, that seems likely, the snow showers.

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