djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 i would think you sit in pretty good position to send us some pictures of snowflakes....I know many are talking a NY landfall and i can't help but have Irene in my head. Sure if Sandy hits NY, thats a little more north, i know i'm the least experienced in this thread, but couldn't the winds be similar for the lower susq valley from this as was Irene? possibly yes and possibly no... Irene was weakening as it moved north of the Carolinas and I believe they held on to the "hurricane" status too long since they had built all the hype up for a hurricane to hit new york... will depend on size of wind field, strength, track, etc but it is possible to see the same and possible to see higher or even lower when compared to Irene... If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly.... I hope that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Good question - what were they down there with Irene? 5-6 more months for snow chances....as Voyager said I'd rather not have a big snow now. I still got fall garden stuff to harvest and when we get October snow it destroys everything Eskimo Joe said the other day sust. around 35 with gusts to 57. i agree about the snow. I was telling my friend who is Fire Chief, that if for some reason we ended up with a decent snow here, would be devastating because of all of the leaves still on the trees, yet one scenario was showing over 5" rain and high winds. Whats the saying, pick your poison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 possibly yes and possibly no... Irene was weakening as it moved north of the Carolinas and I believe they held on to the "hurricane" status too long since they had built all the hype up for a hurricane to hit new york... will depend on size of wind field, strength, track, etc but it is possible to see the same and possible to see higher or even lower when compared to Irene... If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly.... I hope that makes sense Yep, makes sense thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If Sandy hits NY then turns west, much of PA will see an impact for a longer duration than how it was with Irene moving off to the northeast fairly rapidly.... I was thinking this myself, but was reluctant to post it as I don't consider myself technically weather savvy. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Latest Vortex Data Message (VDM): 000 URNT12 KNHC 251221 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/11:47:10Z B. 21 deg 38 min N 075 deg 31 min W C. 700 mb 2816 m D. 70 kt E. 286 deg 9 nm F. 051 deg 58 kt G. 300 deg 12 nm H. 968 mb I. 8 C / 3049 m J. 18 C / 3049 m K. 9 C / NA L. CLOSED M. E33/35/25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF308 0618A SANDY OB 08 CCA MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT SE QUAD 11:53:00Z MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 11:52:00...corrected ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 i may forgo splitting 2 cord of wood on Sunday, might be a little soggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One thing the models are agreeing on is that the upper levels will be too warm for just about all of us. We are looking at a rain storm guys. Nope. Euro ensembles, as per am19psu, shows 8-12 for UNV, so can't discount it as yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW, 06z GFS ensembles now have the storm making landfall in North NJ. More in line with the EURO: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I was thinking this myself, but was reluctant to post it as I don't consider myself technically weather savvy. Thanks! Having the models show a tropical or once tropical system turn west is almost unheard of... it just never happens around here... a more Euro landfall near delmarva would create significant wind/flooding problems for NJ/Del/NY as well as PA but then they would also end up in that northeast quadrant... so there would be a tornado threat with onshore winds as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nope. Euro ensembles, as per am19psu, shows 8-12 for UNV, so can't discount it as yet. My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change! did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change! did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way. Not sure, he told me via email and is going to be away. He said he might come on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure, he told me via email and is going to be away. He said he might come on this afternoon. Who Mag? How old is Williamsport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Who Mag? How old is Williamsport? am19psu. He's in college - right, Williamsport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought wmsptwx was older than me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My take on him, is like every model change is a definite and certain to happen. When i read his post you replied to, i thought, this thing changes every couple hours, so the only thing that is certain, is change! did the euro ensemle throw any snow flurries back this way. We may see flurries late around here but just based on modeled data it does not look like anything that would accumulate... 6-8" of rain is what the euro ensemble is projecting for southeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Who Mag? How old is Williamsport? am19psu. He's in college - right, Williamsport? I don't know how old he is, but he comes off pretty immature at times, and acts "a bit" like Colin from the Philly forum with his negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND UNSETTLED. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't know how old he is, but he comes off pretty immature at times, and acts "a bit" like Colin from the Philly forum with his negativity. He's emanently more likable than that guy, tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 He's emanently more likable than that guy, tho agreed. That other guy, well, he has issues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND UNSETTLED. CISCO Annnndddd now Frankenstorm is becoming a meme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol @ Frankenstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Annnndddd now Frankenstorm is becoming a meme... I wonder if that will catch on before TWC has a chance to name it something other than Sandy... their storm naming plan may really backfire on them if significant snowfall occurs with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol @ Frankenstorm I keep thinking of Putting on the Ritz from Young Frankenstein for some reason. More on topic, anyone else kinda stunned by Sandy's satellite presentation right now on the loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-avn-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I keep thinking of Putting on the Ritz from Young Frankenstein for some reason. More on topic, anyone else kinda stunned by Sandy's satellite presentation right now on the loop? http://www.ssd.noaa....-avn-short.html did you notice as that spins around, it almost looks like a face with 2 eyeballs great, now that song will be stuck in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 did you notice as that spins around, it almost looks like a face with 2 eyeballs great, now that song will be stuck in my head PUTTIN ON THE RRRRIITTTTTZZZZZ btw, I have no idea on snow with this but the UKMET has a great snow track for true central PA http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37409-east-coast-threatsandy-part-iii/page__st__420#entry1812275 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 He's emanently more likable than that guy, tho Yep, I heard that guy who went to PSU Hazy is horrible. He's ruining threads all the time with his pessimism and lack of analysis. Atm he's wrecking the Joel Myers Wx Center with his pessimism. What a loser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 PUTTIN ON THE RRRRIITTTTTZZZZZ btw, I have no idea on snow with this but the UKMET has a great snow track for true central PA http://www.americanw...20#entry1812275 wow, you should sign up for idol, great voice... I still think til its all said and done, you may get some measurable snow. I know someone spoke of lake effect snow, i guess that still possiable right, the way the winds would wrap around? I guess temps come into play as well right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW, the NHC track is now much further west. Makes landfall near New Jersey: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep, I heard that guy who went to PSU Hazy is horrible. He's ruining threads all the time with his pessimism and lack of analysis. Atm he's wrecking the Joel Myers Wx Center with his pessimism. What a loser! did they ban you from the super e-wall yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 wow, you should sign up for idol, great voice... I still think til its all said and done, you may get some measurable snow. I know someone spoke of lake effect snow, i guess that still possiable right, the way the winds would wrap around? I guess temps come into play as well right? Yes, that seems likely, the snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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