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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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which would be good for us hoping for snow...correct?

being on the south west side of the storm = good for snow possibilities?

Yep in this ridiculous circumstance you would want the low to stay to your north if it curled back in to be in that zone where snow is possible.

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Yep. If you want snow hope for a Long Island landfall. Although I think it's quite likely we see our first snow on the ground no matter what.

Yep in this ridiculous circumstance you would want the low to stay to your north if it curled back in to be in that zone where snow is possible.

thats what i thought...thanks ;)

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000

URNT12 KNHC 250250

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 25/02:35:30Z

B. 19 deg 13 min N

076 deg 16 min W

C. 700 mb 2726 m

D. 81 kt

E. 226 deg 15 nm

F. 315 deg 92 kt

G. 226 deg 13 nm

H. EXTRAP 954 mb

I. 10 C / 3044 m

J. 17 C / 3046 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C22

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 4 nm

P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 14

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 102 KT SE QUAD 02:45:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

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Red taggers having a great discussion in the New England subforum on why it is a long shot to have a big time phase.

They are having a good and interesting discussion for sure, though I don't really think they're specifically talking about it being long shot. I mean no one thinks the full phase is a slam dunk by any means at this juncture. They're having more of a hypothetical discussion over there about potential interactions between the trough and whether or not Sandy being stronger might initially resist the phase. You gotta remember, we're not talking about a run of the mill coastal low development... we're talking a setup that is loaded to the brim for an explosive outcome and models printing out things you'll rarely if ever see. Heck the setup itself is a rare one for this time of the year and we have a full blown hurricane on the playing field. The blocking setup alone argues for a coastal storm to develop given the trough progged to take a negative tilt. I'm not gonna discount the option that Sandy escapes and we end up with nothing major in the northeast, but if she doesn't escape someone from the mid atl/ne to the maritimes is going to see a ridiculous storm. And the forecast -2 to -3 NAO certainly is making it's case for the latter.

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well it hasnt happened yet and you know how that goes around here -lol.

Very true, but fingers crossed! Euro looks very good still. I made a deal with myself. I will only come home, if CPA has the potential of 12" + . Maybe even 18" , cause it would probably mean losing my job, but if the potential is there for a once in a 50 year type storm, I would do it. I will give it until Saturday night-Sunday, then I will make my choice.

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So will I (the snow part most likely) and I live in the forecast area... :lol:

I dunno, the potential is there for everyone to win for those south of the retrograding massive snowacane. It is just going to depend on the level of phasing, because a storm of this magnitude will produce its own cold air with no problems. Although not a snowacane, think November 1950! but a track further north.

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Wow...I was wrong big time. However, looks like mainly rain for PA.

Yea showing some mix in the Laurels, that's as far as it goes with the simulated radar/pressure graphic. But its in the process of making the left turn back towards LI and just starts hitting PA good at that point. Should see the extended hours here shortly.

Here's the full loop

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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My god the Euro...

Yea, thats actually coming in too far southwest for the max snow threat here in C-PA. Via text KAOO and KUNV see 3-4"+ of rain before its cold enough at 850. Then probably .3-.4" that might be snow. JST is teetering, 850s go cold enough and then warm for a frame then go back down.. probably big time snow at very high elevations in SW PA. This euro run has a front and center wind and flooding threat for most of Central PA. Considering the spread in solutions, I still consider this early hook into the Delmarva too early. Canadian and UKMET track fairly similar taking it near/over benchmark and retrograding into upstate New York. GEFS spaghetti plot still all over the place. All in all i've been kinda impressed with the overall consistency of a major event from most of these models. It's slowly starting to narrow down to the question of what region is this going to come retrograding back into.

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One thing the models are agreeing on is that the upper levels will be too warm for just about all of us. We are looking at a rain storm guys.

It would still be an historic storm. Personally, I don't need the snow this time...even though it would be cool to add that entity into the mix.

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One thing the models are agreeing on is that the upper levels will be too warm for just about all of us. We are looking at a rain storm guys.

Still looks like UNV/AOO west sees at least their first snowflakes at the end.

It would still be an historic storm. Personally, I don't need the snow this time...even though it would be cool to add that entity into the mix.

Agreed. The 1-2 stuff literally had me worried.

You know where I am talking about, I would not be too surprised if 322 on Port Matilda mountain has an accumulating snow. They are at 2200-2300 feet up there.

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Still looks like UNV/AOO west sees at least their first snowflakes at the end.

Agreed. The 1-2 stuff literally had me worried.

You know where I am talking about, I would not be too surprised if 322 on Port Matilda mountain has an accumulating snow. They are at 2200-2300 feet up there.

i would think you sit in pretty good position to send us some pictures of snowflakes....I know many are talking a NY landfall and i can't help but have Irene in my head. Sure if Sandy hits NY, thats a little more north, i know i'm the least experienced in this thread, but couldn't the winds be similar for the lower susq valley from this as was Irene?

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One thing the models are agreeing on is that the upper levels will be too warm for just about all of us. We are looking at a rain storm guys.

with such a rare set up/storm strength/etc... we dont really know how well the models are handling the temperature projections on the backside of the system... way too early to call it a rain storm just as its too early to say a certain place would be all snow

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i would think you sit in pretty good position to send us some pictures of snowflakes....I know many are talking a NY landfall and i can't help but have Irene in my head. Sure if Sandy hits NY, thats a little more north, i know i'm the least experienced in this thread, but couldn't the winds be similar for the lower susq valley from this as was Irene?

Good question - what were they down there with Irene?

5-6 more months for snow chances....as Voyager said I'd rather not have a big snow now. I still got fall garden stuff to harvest and when we get October snow it destroys everything :ee:

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