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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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just think this is the beginning of winter storm season.. going to be a long season and alot of model watching if storms are going to be this crazy.

by friday we will have a better idea on model consensus... but sure is fun to watch learn read etc.

new to these forums... located in state college, pa

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000

URNT12 KNHC 250026

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 25/00:10:10Z

B. 18 deg 48 min N

076 deg 28 min W

C. 700 mb 2778 m

D. 79 kt

E. 300 deg 10 nm

F. 040 deg 81 kt

G. 300 deg 10 nm

H. EXTRAP 964 mb

I. 9 C / 3048 m

J. 14 C / 3047 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. OPEN SE

M. E09/32/18

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND

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Mets? Any impacts down the road if Sandy really does keep blowing up?

I'm def curious to see how Sandy responds after its gets itself away from Cuba. I guess on that same note, I'm curious to see how much it intensifies before it gets to Cuba. The 8 pm update has a lowered pressure all the way down to 968, so thats already supportive of at least a strong Cat 2. I know one things for sure, the globals are going to underestimate the strength of Sandy at initialization tonight absent any inputted data from hurricane hunters. Cuba's def in a bad position with a hurricane that appears to be in a rapid intensification phase. Sandy currently resides in a region where the oceanic heat content is very high and once it gets past the Bahamas it is much much lower. So basically while the water will certainly be warm enough to support Sandy for awhile, there's going to be a modest ceiling on full strength potential. Speed is going to be a major factor with this wrt timing of the potential phase. Also, I would imagine a stronger hurricane would tend to try to resist being steered away to a certain degree. I've noticed with alot of these model runs how it looks like the hurricane gets blown sideways before resuming a northerly trajectory before hooking. We'll see to how much of a degree it actually does that. Regardless, with the degree of blocking in place.. this storm is likely getting hooked back in at some point in the game. We also have a trough that has been progged to be going quite negative even without the prospect of this tropical phasing oppurtunity. I do think todays Euro hooks it in too soon, and it likely ends up landfalling in the NYC or Southern New England areas if we get the capture.

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I'm def curious to see how Sandy responds after its gets itself away from Cuba. I guess on that same note, I'm curious to see how much it intensifies before it gets to Cuba. The 8 pm update has a lowered pressure all the way down to 968, so thats already supportive of at least a strong Cat 2. I know one things for sure, the globals are going to underestimate the strength of Sandy at initialization tonight absent any inputted data from hurricane hunters. Cuba's def in a bad position with a hurricane that appears to be in a rapid intensification phase. Sandy currently resides in a region where the oceanic heat content is very high and once it gets past the Bahamas it is much much lower. So basically while the water will certainly be warm enough to support Sandy for awhile, there's going to be a modest ceiling on full strength potential. Speed is going to be a major factor with this wrt timing of the potential phase. Also, I would imagine a stronger hurricane would tend to try to resist being steered away to a certain degree. I've noticed with alot of these model runs how it looks like the hurricane gets blown sideways before resuming a northerly trajectory before hooking. We'll see to how much of a degree it actually does that. Regardless, with the degree of blocking in place.. this storm is likely getting hooked back in at some point in the game. We also have a trough that has been progged to be going quite negative even without the prospect of this tropical phasing oppurtunity. I do think todays Euro hooks it in too soon, and it likely ends up landfalling in the NYC or Southern New England areas if we get the capture.

which would be good for us hoping for snow...correct?

being on the south west side of the storm = good for snow possibilities?

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