JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nope, it's gone on 18z verbatim. Pops a new storm off New England. Waiting to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nope, it's gone on 18z verbatim. New storm moves west, New England getting flooded, UNV gets first snowflakes via lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It swing Sandy into Nova Scotia too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Has any of the mets ever seen anything like what is modeled on the 18Z GFS? It's bizarre. We get a lot of lake effect snow showers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Has any of the mets ever seen anything like what is modeled on the 18Z GFS? It's bizarre. We get a lot of lake effect snow showers here. I know I haven't seen anything like this and I have been watching models for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I know I haven't seen anything like this and I have been watching models for 15 years. Days of wet snow showers ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Days of wet snow showers ftl Flakes are flakes in my book, much better than cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy looks beautiful on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Seen this and thought I would post it. http://www.washingto...88962_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psudukie Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 just think this is the beginning of winter storm season.. going to be a long season and alot of model watching if storms are going to be this crazy. by friday we will have a better idea on model consensus... but sure is fun to watch learn read etc. new to these forums... located in state college, pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am going out on a limb and say 0z euro looks like gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am going out on a limb and say 0z euro looks like gfs. Considering the OP ECM is basically the extreme west that'd be one hell of a shift for it at d5.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Had to work all day so just getting up to speed on the days developments. Excellent write-up by CTP by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Uhhhh oh gefs way east, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am going out on a limb and say 0z euro looks like gfs. And your reasoning for this is...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy really going nuts. Might be a Cat 2 once the hurricane hunters get down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Mets? Any impacts down the road if Sandy really does keep blowing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 And your reasoning for this is...??? You know that's his M.O. I figured he might grow out of it but I guess not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gefs gfs is east...but hopefully its just 18z. This phase means everything with this storm...nothing vs. Huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Of course I would miss a BECS Here is hoping you guys get rocked! Who knows, if this does end up being a legit snow producer, I may used the very little vacation I do have lol. I'm such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sorry jamie not stirring the pot...euro usually loses storm in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kunv Looks like there's about a quarter inch of all snow qpf after that. The 18Z GFS is saying that a lot of us from AOO-UNV and west get our first accumulating snow, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sorry jamie not stirring the pot...euro usually loses storm in this range. Nah, it's good. My view of the 18Z GFS is even if we miss a monster storm (which I am kind of nervous about as a homeowner, lol) we at least get the snow season kicked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy looks beautiful on satellite. A beautiful tropical system is never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Same here Jamie, this storm if it were to happen the EURO's way would spell big trouble for homeowners. Luckily I rent, but for any homeowners or property owners tropical storm forced winds in heavily wooded areas is never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 250026 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/00:10:10Z B. 18 deg 48 min N 076 deg 28 min W C. 700 mb 2778 m D. 79 kt E. 300 deg 10 nm F. 040 deg 81 kt G. 300 deg 10 nm H. EXTRAP 964 mb I. 9 C / 3048 m J. 14 C / 3047 m K. 10 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. E09/32/18 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 08 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Mets? Any impacts down the road if Sandy really does keep blowing up? I'm def curious to see how Sandy responds after its gets itself away from Cuba. I guess on that same note, I'm curious to see how much it intensifies before it gets to Cuba. The 8 pm update has a lowered pressure all the way down to 968, so thats already supportive of at least a strong Cat 2. I know one things for sure, the globals are going to underestimate the strength of Sandy at initialization tonight absent any inputted data from hurricane hunters. Cuba's def in a bad position with a hurricane that appears to be in a rapid intensification phase. Sandy currently resides in a region where the oceanic heat content is very high and once it gets past the Bahamas it is much much lower. So basically while the water will certainly be warm enough to support Sandy for awhile, there's going to be a modest ceiling on full strength potential. Speed is going to be a major factor with this wrt timing of the potential phase. Also, I would imagine a stronger hurricane would tend to try to resist being steered away to a certain degree. I've noticed with alot of these model runs how it looks like the hurricane gets blown sideways before resuming a northerly trajectory before hooking. We'll see to how much of a degree it actually does that. Regardless, with the degree of blocking in place.. this storm is likely getting hooked back in at some point in the game. We also have a trough that has been progged to be going quite negative even without the prospect of this tropical phasing oppurtunity. I do think todays Euro hooks it in too soon, and it likely ends up landfalling in the NYC or Southern New England areas if we get the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hearing stronger it stays less likely an early phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm def curious to see how Sandy responds after its gets itself away from Cuba. I guess on that same note, I'm curious to see how much it intensifies before it gets to Cuba. The 8 pm update has a lowered pressure all the way down to 968, so thats already supportive of at least a strong Cat 2. I know one things for sure, the globals are going to underestimate the strength of Sandy at initialization tonight absent any inputted data from hurricane hunters. Cuba's def in a bad position with a hurricane that appears to be in a rapid intensification phase. Sandy currently resides in a region where the oceanic heat content is very high and once it gets past the Bahamas it is much much lower. So basically while the water will certainly be warm enough to support Sandy for awhile, there's going to be a modest ceiling on full strength potential. Speed is going to be a major factor with this wrt timing of the potential phase. Also, I would imagine a stronger hurricane would tend to try to resist being steered away to a certain degree. I've noticed with alot of these model runs how it looks like the hurricane gets blown sideways before resuming a northerly trajectory before hooking. We'll see to how much of a degree it actually does that. Regardless, with the degree of blocking in place.. this storm is likely getting hooked back in at some point in the game. We also have a trough that has been progged to be going quite negative even without the prospect of this tropical phasing oppurtunity. I do think todays Euro hooks it in too soon, and it likely ends up landfalling in the NYC or Southern New England areas if we get the capture. which would be good for us hoping for snow...correct? being on the south west side of the storm = good for snow possibilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 which would be good for us hoping for snow...correct? being on the south west side of the storm = good for snow possibilities? Yep. If you want snow hope for a Long Island landfall. Although I think it's quite likely we see our first snow on the ground no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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