djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro QPF for MDT is around 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro QPF for MDT is around 5.5" i'm not gonna screw around, i better take of some outside stuff like cleaning spouting etc. Hell Irene ripped facia/soffit and siding off my house, shingles off the roof plus took out a window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... -------------------------------------- THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION[/font][/font] EVOLVES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What would snow totals be like on this run? Anyone have any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What would snow totals be like on this run? Anyone have any idea? WV/W MD jackpot this run.. Probably due to the EC making landfall further south. Laurel Highlands look to do ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What would snow totals be like on this run? Anyone have any idea? good question. How soon does the cold move in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 WV/W MD jackpot this run.. Probably due to the EC making landfall further south. Laurel Highlands look to do ok.. Anything up into central PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anything up into central PA? somewhere i saw southern pa does well edit- wouldn't you think as this moved north, those winds would draw in cold air and go from a rain to snow situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 somewhere i saw southern pa does well edit- wouldn't you think as this moved north, those winds would draw in cold air and go from a rain to snow situation? SW PA does ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 somewhere i saw southern pa does well edit- wouldn't you think as this moved north, those winds would draw in cold air and go from a rain to snow situation? SW of the system is ideal in this situation as cold air wraps from underneath.. MDT will probably be a good 10-20 degrees cooler than areas in ME.. Not your average noreaster as this sucka still has tropical characteristics at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow...looks like flooding and wind damage become major threats. Too far north=too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 CTP not strongly wording impacts of storm in newest forecast discussion. Calls for rain and gusty winds for most of us....a slight chance of elevation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 CTP not strongly wording impacts of storm in newest forecast discussion. Calls for rain and gusty winds for most of us....a slight chance of elevation snows. You think they would yet? lol New tropical plots in way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 CTP not strongly wording impacts of storm in newest forecast discussion. Calls for rain and gusty winds for most of us....a slight chance of elevation snows. That's not surprising and a prudent move at this point; keep in mind that we are still 5 - 6 days out. Their afternoon AFD reinforces the fact that CTP is aware of the new model data and gives plenty of time for more strongly worded forecasts and statements come Thursday and Friday. POPS are 50% + for the southeast portion of their forecast area, so they are making the necessary changes as it warrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's not surprising and a prudent move at this point; keep in mind that we are still 5 - 6 days out. Their afternoon AFD reinforces the fact that CTP is aware of the new model data and gives plenty of time for more strongly worded forecasts and statements come Thursday and Friday. POPS are 50% + for the southeast portion of their forecast area, so they are making the necessary changes as it warrants. Saw they added snow mention to our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 From NCEP: 000NOUS42 KWNO 240925 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0920Z WED OCT 24 2012 CRITICAL WEATHER DAY TO BE HOISTED AT 12Z..TROPICAL STORM SANDY TYPE: Regional CWD NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL PARTICIPATE IN CWD TO PROVIDE A RELIABLE FLOW DATA AND MODEL PRODUCTION DURING THIS EVENT. REASON: A Tropical Storm Watch has been hoisted for portions of Southern Florida due to Tropical Storm Sandy. CWD WILL RUN FROM 24/1200Z UNTIL 29/0000Z. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So where do we want landfall to see snowfall in SC PA? Is it even possible this far south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What does this mean??? Does that happen a lot for tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What does this mean??? Does that happen a lot for tropical systems? From what I am reading this is unprecedented. BTW, in reply to your post about CTP, dontcha just love it when NOAA and CTP are in such agreement EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012 ...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... FINAL... MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DAY 5. THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MEASURABLE SNOW. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12Z euro dumps a lot of snow over the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Dam..looks like with a blend of GFS/Euro and a little luck many of us may see some snow mixed in!! Awesome for this early in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Damn..looks like with a blend of GFS/Euro and a little luck many of us may see some snow mixed in!! Awesome for this early in the year. Definitely would see that on the backside with cold air coming over the lakes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Amazing to think just one year ago we had an epic October snow event. Cannot really say I am too excited about that prospect this time around considering how much damage that one caused with so much foliage still remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Realistically though if you aren't south and west of Dubois and 1200 to 1500 feet above sea level, what are the odds of a good accumulating snow from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Amazing to think just one year ago we had an epic October snow event. Cannot really say I am too excited about that prospect this time around considering how much damage that one caused with so much foliage still remaining. I'm the same way. Interesting to note, this is the 10th October since I've moved here and if we get accumulating snow, it will be the 6th October with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 18z DGEX lolcast shows a crippling ice storm across some of the area before the storm retrogrades into the region and warms us above freezing. Specifically hr 126 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS still out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS still out to sea. The GFS probably will show what it did at 12Z, it retrogrades back into New England and gives us a decent amount of snow. You obviously didn't pick up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sorry guys but I gotta hope this stays well offshore. This would be a devastating storm, would make last October's storm seem like a weak cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GFS probably will show what it did at 12Z, it retrogrades back into New England and gives us a decent amount of snow. You obviously didn't pick up on that. Nope, it's gone on 18z verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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