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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION[/font][/font]

EVOLVES...

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somewhere i saw southern pa does well

edit- wouldn't you think as this moved north, those winds would draw in cold air and go from a rain to snow situation?

SW of the system is ideal in this situation as cold air wraps from underneath.. MDT will probably be a good 10-20 degrees cooler than areas in ME.. Not your average noreaster as this sucka still has tropical characteristics at our latitude

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CTP not strongly wording impacts of storm in newest forecast discussion. Calls for rain and gusty winds for most of us....a slight chance of elevation snows.

That's not surprising and a prudent move at this point; keep in mind that we are still 5 - 6 days out. Their afternoon AFD reinforces the fact that CTP is aware of the new model data and gives plenty of time for more strongly worded forecasts and statements come Thursday and Friday. POPS are 50% + for the southeast portion of their forecast area, so they are making the necessary changes as it warrants.

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That's not surprising and a prudent move at this point; keep in mind that we are still 5 - 6 days out. Their afternoon AFD reinforces the fact that CTP is aware of the new model data and gives plenty of time for more strongly worded forecasts and statements come Thursday and Friday. POPS are 50% + for the southeast portion of their forecast area, so they are making the necessary changes as it warrants.

Saw they added snow mention to our forecast.

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From NCEP:

000

NOUS42 KWNO 240925

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0920Z WED OCT 24 2012

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY TO BE HOISTED AT 12Z..TROPICAL STORM SANDY

TYPE: Regional CWD

NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL PARTICIPATE IN

CWD TO PROVIDE A RELIABLE FLOW DATA AND MODEL PRODUCTION DURING

THIS EVENT.

REASON: A Tropical Storm Watch has been hoisted for portions of

Southern Florida due to Tropical Storm Sandy.

CWD WILL RUN FROM 24/1200Z UNTIL 29/0000Z.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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What does this mean??? Does that happen a lot for tropical systems?

From what I am reading this is unprecedented.

BTW, in reply to your post about CTP, dontcha just love it when NOAA and CTP are in such agreement :D

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012

...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC

AND NORTHEAST...

FINAL...

MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A

CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND

GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT

FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN

TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF

WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF

DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF

THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE

AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA DAY 5.

THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE

LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO

BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND

HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS,

WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED

VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS

OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE

MEASURABLE SNOW.

CISCO

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Amazing to think just one year ago we had an epic October snow event. Cannot really say I am too excited about that prospect this time around considering how much damage that one caused with so much foliage still remaining.

I'm the same way.

Interesting to note, this is the 10th October since I've moved here and if we get accumulating snow, it will be the 6th October with it.

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