EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I do notice this high thickness thing again with the run. with sufficient 850's and 2m temps maybe a degree or two above freezing, thickness runs in the high 540s at AOO and UNV. I'd imagine it's the warmer mid-levels around 700mb driving that figure up again like I was explaining earlier. I think the Euro has a warm bias though doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the Euro has a warm bias though doesn't it? Yea it can, that's more of a thing with low level temps though.. which is why i'll give the benefit of the doubt to snow when the text output has like 34ºF at 2m with 850s easily below zero. This situation seems to be dealing with the 850-500mb layer. When tombo posted about the suspect thickness in northern PA where the 12z Euro had the snow bullseye I found that the 700mb temps were just about the same or perhaps even slightly warmer than the 850 temps. They were still sufficient for snow but given the warm temps at that level, the snow growth would be compromised and ratios would probably be pretty lousy. So I would imagine thats probably the case again this run, except with central PA back into ground zero. Basically I think that given the tropical origin of this, we would have these levels warmer than we would otherwise see, even as Sandy transforms into a cold core extratropical system, thus the inflated thickness. Just a really unique situation these models have been presenting and I'm kinda trying to get a grasp on the meteorology of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yea it can, that's more of a thing with low level temps though.. which is why i'll give the benefit of the doubt to snow when the text output has like 34ºF at 2m with 850s easily below zero. This situation seems to be dealing with the 850-500mb layer. When tombo posted about the suspect thickness in northern PA where the 12z Euro had the snow bullseye I found that the 700mb temps were just about the same or perhaps even slightly warmer than the 850 temps. They were still sufficient for snow but given the warm temps at that level, the snow growth would be compromised and ratios would probably be pretty lousy. So I would imagine thats probably the case again this run, except with central PA back into ground zero. Basically I think that given the tropical origin of this, we would have these levels warmer than we would otherwise see, even as Sandy transforms into a cold core extratropical system, thus the inflated thickness. Just a really unique situation these models have been presenting and I'm kinda trying to get a grasp on the meteorology of it all. Sounds like a TROWAL which wouldn't be surprising at all with a storm of this magnitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ^^^^^^^unreal ABC27 this morning spoke briefly about the potential and showed the lower susq. valley exceeded 4" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Lake Erie surface temperatures are around 60F right now... if cold enough air can blow across the lake on the backside of wherever this system ends up if it does take more of a current Euro route... for some lucky people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Lake Erie surface temperatures are around 60F right now... if cold enough air can blow across the lake on the backside of wherever this system ends up if it does take more of a current Euro route... for some lucky people... Good point. Never thought of that one. I think the GFS is showing something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NWS CTP rather on the side of the bull this am: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WELL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH A POLAR TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO WRN PA BY SAT EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW/STALL AS SANDY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS THE ERN U.S. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF GLOBAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS DIRECT THE POST- TROPICAL EVOLUTION OF SANDY TOWARD THE NERN STATES. DESPITE THE GFS REMAINING ON THE ERN FRINGES OF THE CONSENSUS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN /GEFS/ HAS JOINED THE ECMWF ENS MEAN AND NAEFS CLUSTER...BRINGING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY HALLOWEEN. THIS LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE DAY 4-7 GRIDS WERE COMPRISED OF A CONSENSUS BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAEFS DATA...WITH A LOWER WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HIGH-IMPACT STORM TO ADD A GENERAL MENTION IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD STILL BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF THE FCST REMAIN UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 thats a good write up. People down this way are now talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy now upgraded to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy now upgraded to a hurricane. Any thoughts on how that impacts the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Any thoughts on how that impacts the forecast? From an NHC standpoint, it's going exactly as planned, Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 From an NHC standpoint, it's going exactly as planned, Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa....is-animated.gif I read their discussion, it's really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not reading much into it... but 12z NAM stalls Sandy out just off the southern Florida coast for nearly a day... talk about major beach erosion... a friend of mine is heading to florida and the caribbean for a weekend cruise with his wife for their anniversary... hes not too happy right now and hopes Sandy accelerates northward fast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS looks to have Sandy at about 20mb weaker than the 11:00 advisory right off the bat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS looks to have Sandy at about 20mb weaker than the 11:00 advisory right off the bat... Resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy now has an eye: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Still looking healthy on the satellite presentation. Latest vortex message: 000 URNT12 KNHC 241610 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/15:40:30Z B. 17 deg 15 min N 076 deg 47 min W C. 700 mb 2875 m D. 65 kt E. 240 deg 17 nm F. 323 deg 61 kt G. 238 deg 24 nm H. 974 mb I. 7 C / 3037 m J. 17 C / 3055 m K. 4 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C48 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 23 MAX FL WIND 86 KT SE QUAD 14:41:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 15:48:00Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well 12z GFS winds up coming back west into New England and produces decent snowfall over much of PA... def a trend toward something similar as Euro... we shall see if Euro now continues what it has consistently been showing... also waiting to see what the clown maps produce for snowfall over pa lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well 12z GFS winds up coming back west into New England and produces decent snowfall over much of PA... def a trend toward something similar as Euro... we shall see if Euro now continues what it has consistently been showing... also waiting to see what the clown maps produce for snowfall over pa lol... Right about now is when the Euro pulls a fake out and loses the storm...seen it happen with previous major events. Doesn't always though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12Z GFS ENS are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well 12z GFS winds up coming back west into New England and produces decent snowfall over much of PA... def a trend toward something similar as Euro... we shall see if Euro now continues what it has consistently been showing... also waiting to see what the clown maps produce for snowfall over pa lol... Can't wait for the next 24" snow bomb over UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can't wait for the next 24" snow bomb over UNV. what are the odds that something like this actually happens here? im skeptical but im starting to get a little more excited.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 fwiw we're looking at another sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what are the odds that something like this actually happens here? im skeptical but im starting to get a little more excited.. its becoming more and more likely that something will happen with this storm somewhere on east coast... just a matter of where and what exactly... way too many different scenarios still on the table ranging from seeing almost nothing to heavy rain and wind to snow and wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 fwiw we're looking at another sharp cutoff. Well, if the new Euro comes true that won't matter, brings it onshore over Ocean City MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, if the new Euro comes true that won't matter, brings it onshore over Ocean City MD. no chit? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 no chit? wow :blink: :blink: :blink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 whoooooooooaaaaa nellie, look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Mother of God, the ECM is ballistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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