sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i thought it was going to be colder next week, looks like it gets into the 50's down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Even with the 12z CMC going WAY offshore, we still get some interesting wintry weather as an inverted trough(?) left behind in the cold air sets off light precip for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A post worth reading folks: http://www.americanw...45#entry1805691 EDIT: DAT BLOCKING!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A post worth reading folks: http://www.americanw...45#entry1805691 EDIT: DAT BLOCKING!! http://www.americanw...ost__p__1805754 Is blocking like that now a good or bad sign for the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i thought it was going to be colder next week, looks like it gets into the 50's down here. lol....that's 20 degrees colder than the next few days, ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Is blocking like that now a good or bad sign for the upcoming winter? Blocking like that would, in my opinion, be important for anyone south of 40.5 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Blocking like that would, in my opinion, be important for anyone south of 40.5 N. So, it's a good sign. Even if we miss the big storm we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol....that's 20 degrees colder than the next few days, ya know. ha, i guess your right! I guess i was thinking cold, cold! Not high 40's - 50s cold. But yep, it is definitly 20 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ha, i guess your right! I guess i was thinking cold, cold! Not high 40's - 50s cold. But yep, it is definitly 20 degrees colder. Going from sunny and near 70 to breezy, damp, and overcast with highs in the 50s will feel quite chilly. EDIT: Some Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) plumes for selected cities in Central PA: Pittsburgh: Dubois: Williamsport: Lancaster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Going from sunny and near 70 to breezy, damp, and overcast with highs in the 50s will feel quite chilly. yeah i know, its just me. in my mind, thats not cold, so when i hear cold, my mind goes into the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Haha yes we finally have life in the C-Pa thread. My thoughts really haven't changed if you've read my posts the last couple days. Expect continued model discrepancy and wavering at least the next couple days as they sort out this complex setup. I still don't think we'll see such an insanely deep system as progged at times by the Euro and GGEM (i.e a 950-960mb or less type low). Although I'm not going to take this perfect scenario off the table. But still... if Sandy gets caught, we're going to have a big storm somewhere in the northeast. And given the blocking thats forecast to be in place, I'm leaning more toward the getting caught scenario vs escaping. Lastly, if we end up with any kind of decent low on the coast close enough to affect us with the pressing cold.. the snow option is on the table for at least the C-PA high ground. That's something we wouldn't need a 950mb low to attain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Best scenario for snow in Central PA would be for the low to get captured and head inland via the Hudson Valley, IMO. It keeps PA on the cold side, but you have to be above 800' sea level for snow. EDIT: EURO still wants this to go down. Makes "landfall" eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Euro drops the pressure to 936mb... now Euro is known for over strengthening tropical systems at times so hard to believe Sandy will become that strong this far out just yet... but still something somewhat close to that strength would cause major major wind destruction to NE without even considering the locations that may see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Euro drops the pressure to 936mb... now Euro is known for over strengthening tropical systems at times so hard to believe Sandy will become that strong this far out just yet... but still something somewhat close to that strength would cause major major wind destruction to NE without even considering the locations that may see snow do you recall what our high winds were with Irene? a co-worker just ask me. I was thinking we had gusts around 45?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 do you recall what our high winds were with Irene? a co-worker just ask me. I was thinking we had gusts around 45?!?!? Went back through the archives and found sustained around 39mph, with gusts to 57mph in east-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Went back through the archives and found sustained around 39mph, with gusts to 57mph in east-central PA. Thank you sir. That just won me a brew........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Would euro be rain in central pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Would euro be rain in central pa? No. Would be over a foot of snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Also with that eastern track we'd likely miss strong winds and heavier precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Would euro be rain in central pa? For the Oct 23rd 12z run, it would show rain to wet (accumulating) snow for elevations above 800 feet. EDIT: Graphic below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The question is do I stay in Indiana,pa in hopes of big snows or head home to philly for the rain and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 From Ian in the mid atlantic thread "Snow jackpot W NY/PA border thru 186 -- 18"+. Much of C PA 4-8"+.. dipping into W MD." " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 From Ian in the mid atlantic thread "Snow jackpot W NY/PA border thru 186 -- 18"+. Much of C PA 4-8"+.. dipping into W MD." " Methinks the EURO is intensifying the system too much. But still...936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Methinks the EURO is intensifying the system too much. But still...936 I'm just astonished that this is now the third day the Euro and/or the GGEM has had such a deep solution. It's like 940mb is the new 990mb when it comes to low strength. I remember Sunday thinking heh wow.. I never saw something that crazy before. And that was before I saw yesterdays 12z Euro at 927mb closing on the benchmark. Even the NoGaps has been putting out <960mb solutions. Plus the GFS was on board with the insanity on Sunday before it went to its out to sea option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Methinks the EURO is intensifying the system too much. But still...936 i do too. I'm not even expecting snow, all my thoughts are when this thing gets pinned down, is how bad is the wind going to be. edit- and timing, i need to split 2 cords of wood Saturday/Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm just astonished that this is now the third day the Euro and/or the GGEM has had such a deep solution. It's like 940mb is the new 990mb when it comes to low strength. I remember Sunday thinking heh wow.. I never saw something that crazy before. And that was before I saw yesterdays 12z Euro at 927mb closing on the benchmark. Even the NoGaps has been putting out <960mb solutions. While the GGEM went east, GFS ensembles trended toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 While the GGEM went east, GFS ensembles trended toward the Euro. Classic Canadian / GFS malarky in the D5 -> D7 range. I'm just astonished that this is now the third day the Euro and/or the GGEM has had such a deep solution. It's like 940mb is the new 990mb when it comes to low strength. I remember Sunday thinking heh wow.. I never saw something that crazy before. And that was before I saw yesterdays 12z Euro at 927mb closing on the benchmark. Even the NoGaps has been putting out <960mb solutions. Plus the GFS was on board with the insanity on Sunday before it went to its out to sea option. That does give me some pause. Should this hold serve for another 48 hours, then I think a lot of conversations are going to be had amongst OEM / NWS offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Classic Canadian / GFS malarky in the D5 -> D7 range. That does give me some pause. Should this hold serve for another 48 hours, then I think a lot of conversations are going to be had amongst OEM / NWS offices. I"ve been watching long term discos on some of the local offices and they've been eerily absent of details beyond acknowledging the threat of a storm with interaction with Sandy affecting the Mid Atl/NE. But I could only imagine the in house discussion on this. Just wait till the major media folks get ahold of this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I"ve been watching long term discos on some of the local offices and they've been eerily absent of details beyond acknowledging the threat of a storm with interaction with Sandy affecting the Mid Atl/NE. But I could only imagine the in house discussion on this. Just wait till the major media folks get ahold of this threat. I was in a conference call this morning un related to the storm (Presidential election) and the NWS folks are certainly aware of this. EDIT: From the HPC afternoon update... "ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS says nothing to see here folks!! Move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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