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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Wow that is just crazy. This run and the 0z Euro from yesterday that had me inside like the 48" contour has my mind wandering on what the snow rates would be like from a system like this with direct tropical origin, oh yea and the wind.

And verbatim from the Euro/NOGAPS runs would put them in to us, at least for a good while, from the North - Northeast. That would allow for a venturi effect from Susquehanna County the entire length of the Apps to Green/Washington.

Leaves on trees, snow(even if only a few inches would hurt bad) and wind? Here we go again. Generators and chain saws.

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Wow that is just crazy. This run and the 0z Euro from yesterday that had me inside like the 48" contour has my mind wandering on what the snow rates would be like from a system like this with direct tropical origin, oh yea and the wind.

And verbatim from the Euro/NOGAPS runs would put them in to us, at least for a good while, from the North - Northeast. That would allow for a venturi effect from Susquehanna County the entire length of the Apps to Green/Washington.

Leaves on trees, snow(even if only a few inches would hurt bad) and wind? Here we go again. Generators and chain saws.

all day yesterday thats all i coud think of was the wind. everyone else is talking about potential snow, but the wind could be a disaster. It really seems like i'm in a wind tunnel for the last year and a half.

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Sauss

Yeah wind would be crazy. At least up here a lot of the leaves is off the trees.

@ Pawatch, our trees are still loaded, i have just started to really enjoy the colors.

I made it a point to look around yesterday, and while there are many trees with leaves still on them, I think there has been a bit more leaf drop (at least in my area) this year than there was last year at this same time.

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Hypey Hype in this thread... geez the system hasn't even gotten out of the Caribbean yet. :lol:

There's hype in all the regional threads right now. Thing is, there are quite a few red taggers that are not totally discrediting the possibility of an extreme solution happening. It's a long shot, but according to some, all the ingredients are there to potentially produce something special.

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Does anyone else feel like this may be more of an east coast skimmer given most of these systems do just that? However, somebody btwn eastern mid atlantic and eastern new england better watch out..could be quite serious.

Ya know, i have thought this. But even if it is a "skimmer" couldn't we still have decent rain and high wind inland? kinda like Irene? ( i use that example as that was the last to impact my area)

and as i'm typing this, i guess what i'm asking all depends on how far east?!?!

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There's hype in all the regional threads right now. Thing is, there are quite a few red taggers that are not totally discrediting the possibility of an extreme solution happening. It's a long shot, but according to some, all the ingredients are there to potentially produce something special.

ECM blowing this thing up 5 straight runs will do that.

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What is the timeframe on this storm...7 days out is a long long time.

Yep, about that.

HPC put this out:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

959 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012

...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST

EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7

USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL

INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO

LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION.

USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE

TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23

GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF

SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT

THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING

OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS

OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE

DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS

OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A

BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN

ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR

THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER

AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION.

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Just a few thoughts from your friendly neighborhood Eskimo:

  1. Do not get overly invested with the more robust solutions that some models are showing (i.e.: EURO / Canadian). The old adage is that if the EURO paints a bad storm it has to occur...not true.
  2. With that idea in mind, history has shown that tropical systems can affect the Mid Atlantic / New England states in late fall. Hazel and Wilma from 2005 have proven that.
  3. We are still in the day 5 - day 7 range and it will be a loooong winter if you get sucked in at every possible storm.
  4. Look for consensus between a model's ensemble and operational output. For example, the late night October 22nd runs of the GFS ensembles really had a miss for the MD / NE. But today's morning runs are now leaning towards a coastal solution.
  5. Enjoy! As I said last October, a storm of this type is rare and worth the pure enjoyment and learning opportunity.

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Another snow map from last night's 00z EURO...just unbelievable!

post-1406-0-15469500-1350990487_thumb.pn

To get an idea about suggested rates, here is snowfall from just 12-18z Tuesday (10:1 ratios which actually don't look too bad considering 850 temps are -2 to -4):

post-1406-0-69667100-1350990597_thumb.pn

Kind of wish that was any other model but the Euro. That one nailed the storm last Oct. Jaw dropping!!

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12 GFS tracks slightly further west and develops Sandy stronger than 0z run when close to florida... but still eventually turns east... which to me is strange because it continues to turn Sandy toward the low pressure system already out over the atlantic... things like this make it too easy to get excited that there may be something worth following over the next few days

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GFS operational is trending towards the EURO / Canadian camp. As much as I dismiss the NOGAPS, it even agrees with the EURO / Canadian now. :wacko:

Just the fact that the NOGAPs is suggesting this is a real threat makes me nervous.

deep breaths fella's, deep breaths!

Multiple deep breaths for sure. Gird you loins for the next 48 hours as this threat moves into the 5 day range.

As for the 12GFS - the ridging is improved to the north and east of Sandy and the flow off the PAC NW seems to be lessened (when compared to its other runs). So, yes, it's slowwllly catching the drift (no pun intended)

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