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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Also, the morning 6z GFS has added yet another ambitious scenario to the the collection that is starting to build up..mainly from the Canadian. I guess my best description is that it kinda is similar to the Perfect Storm of Halloween '91 in that it hauls in a tropical system (probably Sandy) and makes a monster storm and backs the storm in early next week. It actually brings a 968 low WEST into southern New England and into New York State, and yes a good portion of PA would be snow when all was set and done. So I guess add that to last nights reincarnation of Hurricane Hazel courtesy of the Canadian. The overnight 0z run of the Euro at the edge of its range was trying to make a coastal low with cold air available in C-PA. The ingredients for something wild look to be available in this late weekend/early next week timeframe, so something to keep an eye on.

It looks nice, been checking it out on different runs.

Thanks for discussing this, btw.

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Wow a tornado after all. I gotta say I think CTP did an overall poor job Friday night. We had torrential rain, wicked lightning and strong downdrafts but never were in a warning of any kind. That storm was clearly getting its act together as we saw it coming up from Dillsburgh (we were trying to outrun it).

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It looks nice, been checking it out on different runs.

Thanks for discussing this, btw.

Haha maybe it'll wake the thread up since its something to talk about. Seriously though, even though this is still pretty far out it was just starting to become evident that there was potential for a big development even without the prospect of tropical entanglement. All kinds of potential abound with blocking available, and probably strengthening as whatever tropical develops lifts northward. We also have a pretty significant cold shot thats going to try to press in. We've had everything on the models from a rainstorm to a hurricane to a snowstorm to a snowstorm hurricane to an uneventful frontal passage and very cold after. I'd say this late weekend/early next week timeframe is one to watch.

12z GFS and 12z GGEM continue to be wild.

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Wow a tornado after all. I gotta say I think CTP did an overall poor job Friday night. We had torrential rain, wicked lightning and strong downdrafts but never were in a warning of any kind. That storm was clearly getting its act together as we saw it coming up from Dillsburgh (we were trying to outrun it).

Friday night? hell we didn't have a drop on the west side of the river.

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Well if it happens, it would rival Hazel. Wonder what winds on Mount Washington would be lol.

It could rival alot of various things depending on how it eventually evolves. A less insane phase and capture would probably bring the prospect of a near repeat of last years storm at essentially the same time. The Euro solution had it all, with 70-90 knot winds at 850mb over southeast NY and extreme southern New England and a widespread flooding rainfall for all of PA and most of the mid Altlantic states. As the low reached Buf @198hrs at 976 mb, the southwestern quarter of the state likely would be turning to snow, especially at higher elevation. From that point thru at least 216 it had the look of a major upslope/lake enhanced snow event for the Laurels. Overall, the 12z suite was unanimous on a big time storm today in this ~192 hour area. Too bad its just that... at 192 hours. Models almost assuredly are going to have their moments for and against anything happening with this all week. Plus we have yet to get an actual tropical system formed, although the disturbed area its lurking in the Caribbean and models have been insistent on this developing into something named. All kinds of potential with this, along with a ton of variables.

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The overnight European and the Canadian continue to produce solutions that are just mind boggling impact wise. The Euro wins that competition tonight, hooking in a 950mb low off the jersey shore to Erie. At that point around Erie (216hr) it is stacked with a sub 5280 (might be down to as much as 5220) 500mb low. That is an extremely anomalous 500 low for this time of the year..to put it lightly. Snow would be in the equation in at least higher western and southern PA (and further down the apps) by about hour 192 or so. Not sure how to feel about all this, except for this insane solution is probably not likely. I think the Canadian and Euro are overemphasizing the tropical development part of this equation. A storm like half this strength could still deliver a snow threat in our favored PA places. I dunno about a 950 low but something of the 975-985mb variety seems like a more realistic tropical charged storm option to me, with the downstream ridging maybe not quite as strong as the Canadian/Euro and thus maybe not such a sharp left turn of the low. What emerges out of the Caribbean and its ensuing development/track will be a big factor. If the tropical system escapes being sucked up the eastern seaboard, there's still potential for coastal development anyways with the approaching trough.. but it wouldn't be as prolific. The non-storm idea is also clearly on the table given the range we're still talking about. Could be a long week.

Euro 216hr

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And the 0z GFS?? It says "Cool story bro"

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You don't see this kind of solution every day (or every century for that matter). Euro snow map for total snow (10:1 ratios) through 216hr. This kind of storm probably occurs 1-2 times a millenium...

Haha I figured last nights euro was a big snow storm for C-pa, but I'd die and go to heaven if that happened.

GGEM and Euro have taken it a notch further today, with a 944 and a 927ish (!!!!!) mb low repsectively. Euro was a late capture and thus its pushed all the way back out to the hour 216 or so timeframe once again. Waiting on the full Euro to see what it would do to our area. My guess attm would be probably another biggie in the snowfall department as there is a hole of below 0ºC 850s in the central third of PA. Talk about lol-tastic.

These models are still likely overdoing it with the deepness of the lows, but the threat of a high impact storm is very real. With the NAO deep in the tank, this constant se-nw track that's been presented on most models is definitely viable. But as I said last night, if we were to get a tropically charged storm, it's probably gonna be more like 975-985mb variety. Although, it will depend on how much Sandy strengthens and phases.. A full capture would probably send a low below that range. But I can't imagine something with a high end cat 4 pressure crashing into the Jersey shore or SNE. One option on the table is an evolution like the October '05 Hurricane Wilma/noreaster. Wilma went out to sea but aided in a significant nor'easter that delivered a significant snowfall to the high ground in the central third of PA, as well as a couple inches in AOO/UNV. That happened on the 25th of October that year.

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Accupro gives me Euro text data out to 168 hours, won't see the full thing till probably after 4am or so. Another big run from the 0z Euro, and via text it looks like another potential snowstorm run for Central PA. Even the last text frame (hr 168) at MDT fell below 0ºC at 850 with a 2m temp in the low 30s, and a 6 hour precip total of over an inch. Theres also a good 2 inches of rain prior to that. Lighter QPF in the central tier but earlier potential change to snow starting at JST around h144 and AOO/UNV h150. This is before the storm makes the big retrograde back west from the tip of Long Island back thru Upstate NY so wouldn't think QPF is done beyond 168 hours. Sounds like good chance this run's gonna produce another weenie snowmap for C-PA.

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It is not done, for sure. Weather Underground EURO maps show what would likely total another 2-3"+ of QPF for Central PA post hour 168. This would be an epic epic blizzard for parts.

Wow that is just crazy. This run and the 0z Euro from yesterday that had me inside like the 48" contour has my mind wandering on what the snow rates would be like from a system like this with direct tropical origin, oh yea and the wind.

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