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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Snow on the GFS again tonight in about the h240 range. 540 line stays in or near PA from about hour 144 through about 256. Suffice to say that the 2nd week of October looks quite chilly. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first lake effect episode of the season in the upper lakes and some flakes in the Laurels if it continues to look like that. And as mentioned the other day, the recurving major typhoon (or whats left of it as its lifting away from Japan) is a good indicator for a decent east coast trough about 8 days or so down the road. I'm sure the 6z GFS with its glacier building bias will try to give us a snowstorm or something when that rolls in later this morning.

gfs_namer_141_850_temp_mslp_precip_s.gif

:whistle:

That said, it does seem to be a cold week in store next week. I am going to be in Milwaukee for part of it.

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Has it been dry down your way? MDT was normal in Sept and UNV slightly above normal. But I have no idea about MD.

Also, I have no idea why, but I like fall rainy days. Probably part of my sickness....weather enthusiasm.

I was just telling my co-worker the same thing, that for some reason i like fall rainy days! I'm not sure, but i think it reminds me when i was a kid and we'd be playing football outside on a cool fall day when it was raining and you could smell everyones wood burners and the smoke hung low..

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It certainly looks wet again this weekend as GFS and Euro are progging a wave to run along the tight boundary separating warm weather from the impending significant downturn in temps next week. Todays 12z GFS continues the possibility of the first snowflakes of the season in the NW and Laurels early next week as it digs a decent trough and has a couple disturbances rounding the trough on Tuesday and Thursday of next week. The second (and stronger) of which at hour 216 has the look of an interior and high elevation snow event for PA and upstate NY. Thats still in the lol range but I wouldn't completely take something like that off the table given our track record the last few years. We're 2/3 in the last three Octobers with pulling off an early event...and it appears the potential is there for it to happen next week if the stars align. The overnight Euro doesn't have this and has been consistently less amplified than the GFS with the trough overall, so it'll be interesting to see what ends up winning that battle. The Euro is still chilly enough for the aformentioned early week flakes. So for now, I think it'll be sufficient to highlight a good possibility of some upslope flakes in the typical areas as well as an overall frost/freeze potential for most of the central next week.

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Honestly, and you see my opinions in the main thread on this, I just don't know how they pull this off.

Yea I posted a couple thoughts over on the other thread, I'm of the opinion that I would've rather seen NOAA introduce something like this, as the private sector entities would have had to adopt it and there would be no possible confusion of private weather companies using different names and etc. But otherwise, winter storms have a ton of variables and many different impacts that makes it hard to have clear cut criteria on whether to slap a name on it. Should be interesting to see how it pans out though.

Also, favorite #RejectedTWCName tweet so far:

"Winter Storm Kanye: Imma let you finish, but Winter Storm Beyonce had one of the best storms of all time"

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Yea I posted a couple thoughts over on the other thread, I'm of the opinion that I would've rather seen NOAA introduce something like this, as the private sector entities would have had to adopt it and there would be no possible confusion of private weather companies using different names and etc. But otherwise, winter storms have a ton of variables and many different impacts that makes it hard to have clear cut criteria on whether to slap a name on it. Should be interesting to see how it pans out though.

Also, favorite #RejectedTWCName tweet so far:

"Winter Storm Kanye: Imma let you finish, but Winter Storm Beyonce had one of the best storms of all time"

:thumbsup:

I'm pretty excited for the naming of winter storms. Although I would much prefer HPC did it, but this is a start. I like it mainly for the categorization and organization purposes. I don't mind the NEISS scale, but I want a true brute strength scale of winter storms instead of a scale affecting population. I would like to see a ranking system rather than a naming system. Kinda like what accuweather does with their 1-5 but would rather see a 1-10 scale. Plus who wouldn't want to track a winter storm :) Would love to have actual winter storm paths to track and relate to past identical storm tracks and case studies.

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Oh here we go,

http://twitter.com/B...3485440/photo/1

post-1507-0-86226600-1349311508_thumb.jp

After having a look at the Euro, this isn't terribly far fetched but I think it'll be just a bit too warm with this frontal wave. You can make an argument for high elevation snow with the 12z Euro, with 850s below zero and 925s below 2ºC primarily in the nw part of the state. Runs that have had this wave the past few days have been kinda close to pulling some kind of an elevational event off. Todays runs have a familiar model take with the GFS flat and the Euro amplifying this pretty decently. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the really high folks like top of Laurel Summit, Mt Davis, Potter country above 2k, etc saw some flakes mix in before this wave moves out but I think we'd need a more significantly amplified wave to drive anything lower than that.

Another noteworthy thing about the 12z model suite is that the Euro today looks like a couple of the earlier GFS runs anchoring a nice trough with waves reinforcing a below average temperature regime right through 240. There's a period about 216-234 where northern half of PA is sub 528 in thickness. The GFS lifts things out more after the first half of the week kinda like the Euro had in previous runs.

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Early returns on 0z Euro text appear to indicate that it continues to have a more amplified version of the frontal wave for Sunday/Sun night with a modest QPF event (about 0.5 or so) and another close call thermally. JST, AOO, and UNV have 850 temps a few tenths above 0 for the bulk of the precipitation (pit and bradford below 0 at 850) with 2m temps barely above 40ºF. Certainly a very cold rain at least. 0z GFS was flat and pretty much had no precip at all. The GFS did previously have this event so it could be an early showing of the classic GFS losing something in the near mid range and getting it back in the short range.

The euros tracking of this wave and trough has been placing primarily NW PA in the zone where temps aloft have the best potential to allow for high elevation wet snow with the Laurels being just a bit too far east in slightly warmer temps aloft. Assuming the GFS is currently wrong and comes back toward the Euro and the Euro gives a bit to slightly more progressive solution, we could see the Laurels in the best thermals aloft. Overall this is reminiscent of last year's beginning of October system that dropped up to a few inches in some of the higher Laurels after a very cold rainfall with temps in the low-mid 40s in C-PA. That system was a good bit deeper if I recall though, so I continue to think if any white ended up falling out of this, any accums would be light and you'd probably have to be in a really high place to see snow at all. Still model discrepancy on if we even see precip with this and still got some time till this starts getting into NAM range so we'll see. The last few years have really skewed the fact that generally it is really hard to see measurable snow anywhere in PA during early-mid Oct.

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