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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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Elliot Abrams mentioned the high elevation snowstorm that showed up on the GFS two days ago: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/abrams/october-snowstorm-1/78866

This am's GFS shows at least flakes for the higher elevation around the same date. Given it's that far out, not expecting it but it's interesting to see the GFS showing phantom snow once again.

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Elliot Abrams mentioned the high elevation snowstorm that showed up on the GFS two days ago: http://www.accuweath...owstorm-1/78866

This am's GFS shows at least flakes for the higher elevation around the same date. Given it's that far out, not expecting it but it's interesting to see the GFS showing phantom snow once again.

The GFS has been dropping a pretty nice cold shot down in its longer range. We also have a typhoon recurvature that is forecast to be passing by Japan by early next week and a typhoon recurve in that area can be a good indicator of an eastern trough about 8-10 days down the road. The chances of actually pulling out yet another extremely early snowfall like 2009 and 2011 are obviously quite slim, but it looks like we might see some chilly weather towards the 2nd week of October as it looks attm, which of course can be highly changeable given the range.

Seasonal long range stuff isn't my forte, but I am cautiously optimistic about this coming winter. With the development of a weak El Niño still generally anticipated we can get ourselves into a pretty decent winter pattern so long as we have somewhat cooperative teleconnections. I doubt we'll see virtually an entire winter of +NAO/AO as well as the long lasting persistent Alaskan vortex like we saw last winter combine forces and shut us out snow wise.

I guess if one is into more anecdotal evidence of a snowier winter, I noticed that after last years Oak trees produced little or no acorns...this year they're loaded. So lock it in haha.

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Hey guys. I am still looking for a few more people to come on board my team in building a company. I got 5 right now and could always use more. Message me for more details. Everything is going good right now and we are off to a smooth start. My email is [email protected].

Thanks, Zak Brisko

www.hwpcwx.org

www.facebook.com/hwpcwx

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Snow on the GFS again tonight in about the h240 range. 540 line stays in or near PA from about hour 144 through about 256. Suffice to say that the 2nd week of October looks quite chilly. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first lake effect episode of the season in the upper lakes and some flakes in the Laurels if it continues to look like that. And as mentioned the other day, the recurving major typhoon (or whats left of it as its lifting away from Japan) is a good indicator for a decent east coast trough about 8 days or so down the road. I'm sure the 6z GFS with its glacier building bias will try to give us a snowstorm or something when that rolls in later this morning.

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45 this am.

Yesterday was tough. at 12 the sun was out and pretty decent. I was an instructor at a softball camp, i was wearing shorts and a T-shirt. Man when that wind picked up and the clouds rolled in, the temps really dropped. Good thing we were almost done, because when it rained i got soaked and then i was really chilly.

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