HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Good post, Phil. As I always say, I'm no forecaster-- not even on the hobbyist level-- but the Euro and the GFS have very little credibility this year, as far as I'm concerned. They both bombed with Ernie-- simple as that. The GFS did score that semi-win with Debby, but the Euro bombed on that one, tool So I'm not exactly gonna write this one off because these two models do. Not after Ernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Good post, Phil. As I always say, I'm no forecaster-- not even on the hobbyist level-- but the Euro and the GFS have very little credibility this year, as far as I'm concerned. They both bombed with Ernie-- simple as that. The GFS did score that semi-win with Debby, bu the Euro bombed on that one, tool So I'm nt exactly gonna write this one off because thee two models do. Not after Ernie. With all due respect, the GFS/Euro did pretty well with Ernesto. Global models don't particularly show actual intensity very well due to their resolution, especially with small circulations like Ernesto. The GFS/Euro showed strengthening of some sort the entire time in the Western Caribbean while showing no strengthening throughout the Central and Eastern Caribbean. This turned out to be remarkably accurate. It could be argued that Ernesto opened into a wave in the Central Caribbean and didn't regain that closed appearance until it reached 80W and stalled for several hours. Recon never really found any true west winds during the Central Caribbean journey. Ernesto basically went by what the GFS/Euro said, even though they might have been a little weak with intensity when it made landfall on the Yucatan. I didn't even mention track, but both were very accurate on the eventual track of Ernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Not to be Debbie Downer here, I thought most runs of the GFS handled Ernesto fairly well. They were close on track, and kept it weak, and suggested some strengthening right before landfall. Previously discussed somewhere, the GFS just doesn't have the resolution to be a true tropical model and predict exact intensity and central pressure, but when it consistently shows the system opening up and dissipating, and apparently has general Euro support, I tend to trust it. Latest GFS has no apparent low level circulation, but does have a 700 mb moisture surge in the Gulf in 8 days. I am, of course, hoping there is enough there for something to regenerate, that maybe there is a touch of low level vorticity a global can't capture at 8 days. GFS is showering enhanced showers entering the Gulf with what I believe are TD #7s remants, and low level flow favorable for a weak system to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Neither the Euro nor the GFS brought a significant hurricane into the Yucatan. A the end of the day, from the perspective of practical application in forecasting, they were useless. It's great that they accurately tracked a 1010-mb low center-- an awesome win for weather nerds-- but that did little good for residents of the Yucatan. Fortunately the NHC didn't hug those models. They did pretty well with this. Bringing this back to TD7, I'm not going to write it off because the GFS and Euro don't do much with it. You guys can if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Neither the Euro nor the GFS brought a significant hurricane into the Yucatan. A the end of the day, from the perspective of practical application in forecasting, they were useless. It's great that they accurately tracked a 1010-mb low center-- an awesome win for weather nerds-- but that did little good for residents of the Yucatan. Fortunately the NHC didn't hug those models. They did pretty well with this. Bringing this back to TD7, I'm not going to write it off because the GFS and Euro don't do much with it. You guys can if you want. Dude, you are totally wrong about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Neither the Euro nor the GFS brought a significant hurricane into the Yucatan. A the end of the day, from the perspective of practical application in forecasting, they were useless. It's great that they accurately tracked a 1010-mb low center-- an awesome win for weather nerds-- but that did little good for residents of the Yucatan. Fortunately the NHC didn't hug those models. They did pretty well with this. Bringing this back to TD7, I'm not going to write it off because the GFS and Euro don't do much with it. You guys can if you want. I pointed this out pages ago in this thread, before this even happened, and got slammed for it. You can't talk to this crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I pointed this out pages ago in this thread, before this even happened, and got slammed for it. You can't talk to this crowd. And you're still totally wrong about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Dude, you are totally wrong about this. Thanks for making me laugh today! The GFS showed about a 45 kt tropical storm making landfall on the Yucatan. Yeah, it got the track right, but as I predicted, was WAY off base with the track. You can keep watching the GFS and creaming in your pants over it, but as far as strength of tropical storms go, it is and always will be, a complete, useless POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 And you're still totally wrong about this. Maybe you need a visit to the eye doctor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Thanks for making me laugh today! The GFS showed about a 45 kt tropical storm making landfall on the Yucatan. Yeah, it got the track right, but as I predicted, was WAY off base with the track. You can keep watching the GFS and creaming in your pants over it, but as far as strength of tropical storms go, it is and always will be, a complete, useless POS. Um, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Thanks for making me laugh today! The GFS showed about a 45 kt tropical storm making landfall on the Yucatan. Yeah, it got the track right, but as I predicted, was WAY off base with the track. You can keep watching the GFS and creaming in your pants over it, but as far as strength of tropical storms go, it is and always will be, a complete, useless POS. It's pretty clear you have no clue how to interpret and use numerical guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Well, there is a reason the NHC doesn't solely use global models for their intensity forecasts. They mix and match their hurricane models/intensity models with the globals to come up with the best forecast. The GFS/Euro had the right idea for days on not intensifying Ernesto until it reached the Western Caribbean. The intensity/hurricane models tried to make it a formidable hurricane before reaching the Western Caribbean. As I said before, global models typically struggle with actual intensity due to resolution, especially when you have a circulation as small as Ernesto's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Dude, you are totally wrong about this. You know more about this stuff than I do, so I de to you, but while Ernie was trekking across the Caribbean, run after run of e Euro was totally losing the system-- I couldn't even follow it in the operational because there s nothing there. Yeah, at the very end-- like a day or so before landfall-- it seemed to wake up a little and show something, but c'mon. You really think it performed well? I'm clearly in the minority here, so ill just leave it alone, but I'll just end by saying that if I followed the Euro all week, I have even been planning a chase, since it showed no potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Maybe you need a visit to the eye doctor? Perhaps you should stick to teaching school and leave the forecasting to more qualified individuals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Apparently, the NCEP site only keeps about 4 days of GFS model images. But I can show GFS, in the days leading to landfall, was a useful predictor in intensification. Not saying it can be used with great accuracy, but it can be used as a tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It's pretty clear you have no clue how to interpret and use numerical guidance. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You know more about this stuff than I do, so I de to you, but while Ernie was trekking across the Caribbean, run after run of e Euro was totally losing the system-- I couldn't even follow it in the operational because there s nothing there. Yeah, at the very end-- like a day or so before landfall-- it seemed to wake up a little and show something, but c'mon. You really think it performed well? I'm clearly in the minority here, so ill just leave it alone, but I'll just end by saying that if I followed the Euro all week, I have even been planning a chase, since it showed no potential. As I've said before, you can't just take intensity output verbatim, but if you were using the Euro and the GFS as a guide for intensity trends, you were doing way better than using SHIPS or LGEM or ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Well, there is a reason the NHC doesn't solely use global models for their intensity forecasts. They mix and match their hurricane models/intensity models with the globals to come up with the best forecast. The GFS/Euro had the right idea for days on not intensifying Ernesto until it reached the Western Caribbean. The intensity/hurricane models tried to make it a formidable hurricane before reaching the Western Caribbean. As I said before, global models typically struggle with actual intensity due to resolution, especially when you have a circulation as small as Ernesto's. So bringing it back to my original point: if the globals have trouble with small systems, and the Caribbean does form small systems, then I won't write off TD7 because the globals don't do anything with it. Are you saying in should write it off? I'm confused now what we're arguing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I think this discussion is better fit for the Ernesto forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Um, what? Lol meant to say was way off base with the STRENGTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Ouch, getting a little personal in here now. Nothing wrong with debate, but let's try to keep the discussion civil and professional. Btw MississippiWx welcome to the forum for I don't think anyone welcomed you in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Apparently, the NCEP site only keeps about 4 days of GFS model images. But I can show GFS, in the days leading to landfall, was a useful predictor in intensification. Not saying it can be used with great accuracy, but it can be used as a tool. OK, those were some of the better ones, but I remember several runs keeping it mega-weak, ramming it into Nicaragua, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 So bringing it back to my original point: if the globals have trouble with small systems, and the Caribbean does form small systems, then I won't write off TD7 because the globals don't do anything with it. Are you saying in should write it off? I'm confused now what we're arguing about. Here is what you can say using the globals as guide... "TD 7 will likely maintain itself or even strengthen over the next 24-48 hours before weakening as it approaches the Windward Islands" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You know more about this stuff than I do, so I de to you, but while Ernie was trekking across the Caribbean, run after run of e Euro was totally losing the system-- I couldn't even follow it in the operational because there s nothing there. Yeah, at the very end-- like a day or so before landfall-- it seemed to wake up a little and show something, but c'mon. You really think it performed well? I'm clearly in the minority here, so ill just leave it alone, but I'll just end by saying that if I followed the Euro all week, I have even been planning a chase, since it showed no potential. No, they obviously didn't perform well. Unfortunately, the vast majority of mets in this forum are sellouts, just like every other business. They work for companies that RELY on GFS and ECMWF output, and can't say that they didn't perform well, or that they are useless with one thing or another, for fear of losing their job, or not getting that coveted promotion. It's sad in this day and age that people value selling out to the man more than making a correct forecast, but I can kind of understand it in a bad economy, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 So bringing it back to my original point: if the globals have trouble with small systems, and the Caribbean does form small systems, then I won't write off TD7 because the globals don't do anything with it. Are you saying in should write it off? I'm confused now what we're arguing about. Not by any means. You never write off a system altogether just because the models drop it. I was just stating that the GFS/Euro were fairly good with Ernesto. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Lol meant to say was way off base with the STRENGTH. It isn't designed for exact strength, it doesn't have the resolution, but as far as trends, the GFS, and I don't have a met degree, was superior to statistical guidance. My amateur opinion, hopefully not too influenced by wishcasting, with convection and a moisture surge entering the SW Gulf in a week, as depicted by the model, low to low-mid level steering will start bringing this up on latitude. I don't even see a windshift at 850 mb or 700 mb on the GFS. Some of this might be display resolution, as the surface 6 hour precip depiction almost hints at a touch of cyclonic flow. I wasn't arguing the GFS will nail intensity exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 No, they obviously didn't perform well. Unfortunately, the vast majority of mets in this forum are sellouts, just like every other business. They work for companies that RELY on GFS and ECMWF output, and can't say that they didn't perform well, or that they are useless with one thing or another, for fear of losing their job, or not getting that coveted promotion. It's sad in this day and age that people value selling out to the man more than making a correct forecast, but I can kind of understand it in a bad economy, too. I'd be surprised if there was even one met on this forum who works for a company that would fire them if they bashed global model output while tracking a tropical cyclone! There's probably no such thing as a company that's ultra loyal to any particular global model either... maybe loyal to their own advanced research model but not one that's provided for free by the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Anyhoo, I see what a lot of you are saying, and I was probably too severe on those two models-- point taken. But I stand by my original point which is that I'm not writing TD7 off because the Euro and the GFS said so. And you can't make me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I'd be surprised if there was even one met on this forum who works for a company that would fire them if they bashed global model output while tracking a tropical cyclone! There's probably no such thing as a company that's ultra loyal to any particular global model either... maybe loyal to their own advanced research model but not one that's provided for free by the government. Ya, that had to be one of the weirdest accusations I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It isn't designed for exact strength, it doesn't have the resolution, but as far as trends, the GFS, and I don't have a met degree, was superior to statistical guidance. Ed is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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