Tropical Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Torch it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Torch it up. This is probably based on a strong el nino that never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The way things are going now the nino may fizzle by the end of October. At least both op models have Gulf of Alaska ridging lasting for a while and not that crazy 960 mb GOA low we have seen for the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I really wish Harry would get on here and tell us his thoughts about fall and winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 This is probably based on a strong el nino that never materialized. A strong Nino was never really expected, so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Looks like some awesome fall weather coming up...cool nites, 60Fs, and sun... Time to hit the hiking trails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Looks like some awesome fall weather coming up...cool nites, 60Fs, and sun... Time to hit the hiking trails... OMG. Is that Tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 It could be...not sure if he wears those boots anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Fall color is well under way in Wisconsin! Some places have 80% color already. http://www.travelwisconsin.com/fall-color-report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Geos- Never got out hiking (other duties called), but the bluffs of MN (seen easily from here) are really coloring up...have noticed just in the last week. Need to get out hiking this week with the camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The trees have been quickly changing here in West Central Lower Michigan as well...... especially in the past week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I would say we are at maybe 30% here...i took a drive tonite and while there is color out there, its going to be a few days before we peak. I think it will go fast with these warm sunny days, cold nites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 nothing special outside of normal leaf change here.. weenies like to extend everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I would have to say; compared to the last several autumns, the leaves got started about a week earlier than normal. By the end of this week, I'll probably do my first raking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Seemed like many of the trees started changing very early (August) but most others are about on time for their change. Many of the trees that started changing early only had small sections of their trees turning instead of the whole tree, like what usually happens later in the fall. So in the grand scheme of things it appears that the leaves are changing on a fairly normal time scale here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Trees are really getting going....still think peak is going to be a little earlier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Swell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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Swell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ome of the greatest GL wild/forest fires have occurred in October..Example being the Great Peshtigo Fire. Although the Peshtigo fire was fueled by slash from destructive logging practices the weather conditions are often repeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Oh look. Muted October "torch" and November now looks normal. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOL trapperman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yeah Tropical, keep living in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Colors are changing here very fast...we may be peak by weekend or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I'm starting to wish we could ban monthly and seasonal outlooks on this forum. They are interesting to talk about once in awhile, but they are being abused and used for personal battles by being shown seemingly every single day. I know the weather's boring, but I have so little confidence in outlooks that I don't even think they are worth a glance more than two weeks or so in advance. The 8-14 day ones are useful, but beyond that they are like throwing darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I'm starting to wish we could ban monthly and seasonal outlooks on this forum. They are interesting to talk about once in awhile, but they are being abused and used for personal battles by being shown seemingly every single day. I know the weather's boring, but I have so little confidence in outlooks that I don't even think they are worth a glance more than two weeks or so in advance. The 8-14 day ones are useful, but beyond that they are like throwing darts. Yeah I would never bother posted anything beyond D14 out there. 6-10 day is usually good enough to post. If anything, I can track the fall colors, they are progressing nicely. ~30% color now I would say between here and Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I agree that the seasonal outlooks are getting a bit old at times, but on the other hand that's about all there is to talk about here that's weather related. This time of year is just desperately boring most of the time. Great weather, but very boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 A sample of the fall colors around this immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 The thing I've never understood about those EC maps...how can you really tell what they show for most of the US? It only shows the far northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 LOL trapperman. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 The thing I've never understood about those EC maps...how can you really tell what they show for most of the US? It only shows the far northern tier. By seeing what is happening around the Toronto area and then just north of me I can usually extrapolate what they would draw over my area. It does get harder if you go much farther south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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