Brewers Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 SMH...Its never going to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Sorry mods, for my part in this. But anyone has to admit this is good entertainment in an otherwise boring time of the year. I can see that some of us might get spanked soon so for my part I am done. I'll just sit back and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I think he made that map himself! Here is this morning's map! http://www.cpc.ncep....0915.201210.gif Trollpical you do realize that the CFSv2 has a warm bias. Just look at what its showing for the entire winter. By far the warmest of any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 It's called "v2" for a reason. I think the cfs2 has better verification scores than the other one. Haven't checked it out but that is what I've read in other parts of the forum from people who should know. Gotta be careful about which one is being posted. It doesn't make much sense to post the cfsv2 and then the cfs and act like it trended cooler. They are not the same models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Dear Tropical. You have been on the boards for some time. Nothing wrong with liking the warmth and Summer. Also nothing wrong with providing a solid case for a warmer winter. It's how you go about posting. Seems like you kinda throw jabs to get a rise out of the icy lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 FYI...The CFS V1 is being discontinued on Sept 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Dear Tropical.You have been on the boards for some time. Nothing wrong with liking the warmth and Summer. Also nothing wrong with providing a solid case for a warmer winter. It's how you go about posting. Seems like you kinda throw jabs to get a rise out of the icy lovers. Sparty, I'm just a warm weather lover. I don't like cold, snow or winter. When I see those nice red maps I get happy because it means tolerable weather for me. Sunny, warm and humid days are my favorite because I can get outside and soak up the sun. I'm sure you heard of S.A.D. Well, I get it bad each fall and winter. Cannot stand cold, dark, cloudy, wet days at all. And I cannot move south or I would. The wife's family is all here and she is not gonna move. So I bring the tropics up here as much as I can and enjoy as much warmth as I can get. Posting these warm maps is not meant to taunt anyone -- if it makes you sad to see warm maps remember it's a two way street and could make me sad to see cold weather maps -- especially maps showing huge troughs in June. So hopefully I have reached some of you on a personal level and we can try to get along better as we move forward. Sent from my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Sparty, I'm just a warm weather lover. I don't like cold, snow or winter. When I see those nice red maps I get happy because it means tolerable weather for me. Sunny, warm and humid days are my favorite because I can get outside and soak up the sun. I'm sure you heard of S.A.D. Well, I get it bad each fall and winter. Cannot stand cold, dark, cloudy, wet days at all. And I cannot move south or I would. The wife's family is all here and she is not gonna move. So I bring the tropics up here as much as I can and enjoy as much warmth as I can get. Posting these warm maps is not meant to taunt anyone -- if it makes you sad to see warm maps remember it's a two way street and could make me sad to see cold weather maps -- especially maps showing huge troughs in June. So hopefully I have reached some of you on a personal level and we can try to get along better as we move forward. Sent from my iPhone. He's human. I knew it. Show the love everyone. Be happy for Tropical when it's warm and come drink beer with me when it's cold (there's nothing else to do). Tropical, you got an open invitation to the ice shack any time this winter (assuming we get any ice) or run the trapline with me and I'll show you what winter is really about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I don't like cold, snow or winter. Then why do you have a snow-making machine!!!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wow. This got red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 looks like your monthly vag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Sparty, I'm just a warm weather lover. I don't like cold, snow or winter. When I see those nice red maps I get happy because it means tolerable weather for me. Sunny, warm and humid days are my favorite because I can get outside and soak up the sun. I'm sure you heard of S.A.D. Well, I get it bad each fall and winter. Cannot stand cold, dark, cloudy, wet days at all. And I cannot move south or I would. The wife's family is all here and she is not gonna move. So I bring the tropics up here as much as I can and enjoy as much warmth as I can get. Posting these warm maps is not meant to taunt anyone -- if it makes you sad to see warm maps remember it's a two way street and could make me sad to see cold weather maps -- especially maps showing huge troughs in June. So hopefully I have reached some of you on a personal level and we can try to get along better as we move forward. Sent from my iPhone. you get 9 months a yr that can easily have 60's... Grow a sack for 3 months or move in to the greenhouse.. I'm sure your wife would love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 With regards to the CFSv2: 1-2° + is not too impressive. The arctic anomalies are a bit more significant though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wow. This got red. This will probably only go downhill for you from here though because this is probably one of the warmest runs for October yet. I'd bet money the next runs will be cooler than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Then why do you have a snow-making machine!!!!??? All I can think of is 2007-08 changed his snow preference 180 degrees, because looking back at his posts from that winter, he would actually wishcast winter storms toward Saukville, and now he's wishcasting warmth to some extent to Saukville. I can't blame him, but he hasn't always been just about warmth, no matter how much he denies it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 All I can think of is 2007-08 changed his snow preference 180 degrees, because looking back at his posts from that winter, he would actually wishcast winter storms toward Saukville, and now he's wishcasting warmth to some extent to Saukville. I can't blame him, but he hasn't always been just about warmth, no matter how much he denies it. I know a handful of people that had enough snow for a lifetime or so after 07-08! One being my neighbor. ...But back to fall. Noticing more trees starting to turn color today. Other plants are growing like it's mid summer. The cool nights and warmish days are said to produce the best color in conjunction with normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Hey Tropical, your October map took a dive significantly. You Ok? http://www.cpc.ncep....0919.201210.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Op models go out of sync significantly after 180 hours. Must be fall transition season... sure nothing like it was a week ago when we were all pretty sure the cold was coming. Who knows what long range is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Op models go out of sync significantly after 180 hours. Must be fall transition season... sure nothing like it was a week ago when we were all pretty sure the cold was coming. Who knows what long range is now... That's probably in part because of the resolution change, maybe stop treating every change in the 192+ hr model cycles and long range (CFS, etc.) like it's going to translate out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Looks fallish in the 8-14 day from the NAEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Colors are really startin gto change on some trees here...hope to get some pictures this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 That's probably in part because of the resolution change, maybe stop treating every change in the 192+ hr model cycles and long range (CFS, etc.) like it's going to translate out in the end. Ya know, I'm a light-hearted guy, I like to speculate and joke a lot, I can see this forum is probably not the place for me, too many mets and too much serious discussion. I like to lighten it up a bit from time to time. So I'll just gracefully bow out. I have other interests besides music and severe weather and it's time to go duck hunting. I wish everyone in my area a nice crisp fall and snow inundation. Adios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 That's probably in part because of the resolution change, maybe stop treating every change in the 192+ hr model cycles and long range (CFS, etc.) like it's going to translate out in the end. A good chunk of us on this forum have relatively limited weather knowledge. We enjoy reading and learning from others who are here. We all share a passion for weather, and of course have a high concern for what is in our back yards. With that being said, we don't have the time or knowledge to understand what goes into these forecast models, or know the intricate biases, etc. I work in the property insurance industry so I spend a good amount of time on the board just to learn. A straightforward answer without bashing the amateurishness of someone who certainly is trying (and in my opinion adding the conversation, as any statement is more enjoyable than the troll v troll battle) is not necessary. Share your knowledge without making us sound like morons. If we are really missing something basic, that is what a pm is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Knuckles starting to get dried and cracked... It ain't summer anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 A good chunk of us on this forum have relatively limited weather knowledge. We enjoy reading and learning from others who are here. We all share a passion for weather, and of course have a high concern for what is in our back yards. With that being said, we don't have the time or knowledge to understand what goes into these forecast models, or know the intricate biases, etc. I work in the property insurance industry so I spend a good amount of time on the board just to learn. A straightforward answer without bashing the amateurishness of someone who certainly is trying (and in my opinion adding the conversation, as any statement is more enjoyable than the troll v troll battle) is not necessary. Share your knowledge without making us sound like morons. If we are really missing something basic, that is what a pm is for. While I probably came off quite aggressive in that post, this topic about the long range modeling has been gone over to the point that it is becoming a problem on this sub-forum. I know I'm not the only one who thinks this. Anyway, for newer users (who may not be as fluent with the models yet), if one should see a weather pattern in the longer range models that they are interested in, try checking the ensembles (I will post a couple of links below) and see if the ensemble members are supporting what the operational is generating. Granted, this may be harder to do for the Euro ensembles (considering they are generally not available to the public), for instance, but even that has a mean that you can check to see whether it supports the operational. A trend in the ensembles is much more likely to translate out in the end. Here are two sites commonly used for the ensembles: http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html http://www.americanw...hwx/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 A good chunk of us on this forum have relatively limited weather knowledge. We enjoy reading and learning from others who are here. We all share a passion for weather, and of course have a high concern for what is in our back yards. With that being said, we don't have the time or knowledge to understand what goes into these forecast models, or know the intricate biases, etc. I work in the property insurance industry so I spend a good amount of time on the board just to learn. A straightforward answer without bashing the amateurishness of someone who certainly is trying (and in my opinion adding the conversation, as any statement is more enjoyable than the troll v troll battle) is not necessary. Share your knowledge without making us sound like morons. If we are really missing something basic, that is what a pm is for. This is a great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Aw, I was just crabby Andy, sorry I came off so hard on you. On with the show. I'll keep learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Hmmmm. Brett Torcherson not so torchy any more with his October interpretation of the weeklies. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-hints-about-el-nino-and-the-long-range-forecast/76704 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Hmmmm. Brett Torcherson not so torchy any more with his October interpretation of the weeklies. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/76704 I'll take a seasonable October! Sounds good. Noticing a lot of trees turning yellow and golden color the last few days. With regards to end of the growing season - that NAM definitely shows that over a widespread area! Even some upper teens showing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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