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2012 Fall Discussion


Tropical

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Blocking is predicted the rest of the month, so I would agree with that cool prediction.

Yeah, nothing is set in stone with more than half the month left, but with the 6-14 day forecast looking at the coldest anomalies in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, and no significant torch in sight atm, I think it is very likely.

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I'd say if you're below average or just 1-2 above right now, there's a good chance of finishing August somewhere in negative territory. May start to see a comeback toward more consisent avg/above average temps as we get toward the end of the month.

I have no idea about Indiana, you guys seem to be a heat magnet this year. I'm probably even right now in Michigan, the next 2 weeks look to be well below normal.

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Any ideas on September???

I'm no expert on blocking and its development, but the Greenland Block seems to set up shop for extended periods. Wouldn't be surprised to see more of this N to NW flow next month.

Edit: Might get interesting for areas that are remaining fairly dry... those areas could have early frosts with these cool shots coming down straight from central Canada.

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I just hope it's not a torch like how the last few falls have been. If I were a betting man I would say September is warmer than normal then October and November near or below normal

Sept and Octobers over the past 10 years have been colder then normal for most of the country.. November has been the most above normal month of the year for some reason.

cd99.41.153.198.226.17.20.34.prcp.png

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Sept and Octobers over the past 10 years have been colder then normal for most of the country.. November has been the most above normal month of the year for some reason.

cd99.41.153.198.226.17.20.34.prcp.png

Thats whats been odd.

And in the 1990s, we had a string of very cold Novembers (1995-97) which were followed by blah winters, unlike many of our recent mild Novembers that were followed by spectacular winters. Keep in mind though, it is certainly possible to have a cold November AND harsh winter, so Ill take one of those please :lol:

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I wonder if the fall will behave like 1991.......hot at the end of August/early September and then some very strong cold shots.

1953 had a epic torch at the end of August, before going into the Frig as well.

lol, October 16 to 22 1953 was in the 80s everyday.

November 14-19: 66, 68, 66, 69, 69, 72.

I say bring it! :)

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Since I've heard some mentions of the October 1989 snow storm, I thought I'd post a Indianapolis newscast on it. Or should I say the 22 year Anniversary of the storm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr3zT9eZ_LE

I remember this storm a bit here. I was about 8 years old.

:wub:Oct191989SnowMapcopy.png

Solid thread back at eastern as well about the event.. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239657-the-fluke-of-the-century/

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This might be a little bit off topic but the winter of 89/90 was interesting since it was bookended by two out of season snowstorms. The first one being the Oct 19-20 snowstorm where MKE picked up 6.3" and was followed up by an unseasonably late snowfall on May 10th in which the airport picked up 3.2".

Overall the seasonal snowfall total was 67.7" which is 20" above normal, I honestly would love to see a repeat of that winter.

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:wub:

Solid thread back at eastern as well about the event.. http://www.easternus...of-the-century/

Looks like some lake enhancement on this side of the lake. Surprisingly there isn't any lower amounts near the lakes. - Would think an early season snowfall falling downwind from the water would stick worth diddly! I believe I got off early that day because of the conditions.

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The end of summer is always when you start to see the first signs of color show up in isolated trees, usually the stressed ones....but I also usually see chestnuts start to brown. But just this week I have noticed actually quite a bit of spotty early color showing up much earlier than usual. I use certain trees as guidelines, and they are definitely running way earlier than normal. Too early to know if this is a sign of an early foliage season, but with the early spring greenup, not to mention a period of heat/drought stress in mid-summer, it seems a distinct possibility. SOOO ready for Fall!

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The end of summer is always when you start to see the first signs of color show up in isolated trees, usually the stressed ones....but I also usually see chestnuts start to brown. But just this week I have noticed actually quite a bit of spotty early color showing up much earlier than usual. I use certain trees as guidelines, and they are definitely running way earlier than normal. Too early to know if this is a sign of an early foliage season, but with the early spring greenup, not to mention a period of heat/drought stress in mid-summer, it seems a distinct possibility. SOOO ready for Fall!

I'm noticing some color in isolated trees as well. When I was out hiking yesterday I noticed the Oak trees are already starting to drop their acorns. I noticed the Oaks had quite a few acorns on themselves. Given the hot, dry stressful spring and summer on the plants and trees - will likely see earlier peak color and leaf dropoff.

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No shock at all that October is expected to run warmer than normal. Trends die hard!

Trends eventually die out too. The longer we go with above normal months, the higher the chance of that string breaking. (April was the break here locally)

I expect October to be within 0.5° of normal for most of the subforum area.

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