2012 Fall Discussion

[Tropical]

Since we don't have one, let's discuss fall here.

Looks warm -- GLOBALLY!

[toronto blizzard]

Oh Tropical

[SpartyOn]

Hope it's a beautiful Fall. I'm headed to Algonquin Provincial Park. Gonna backpack and seek out some old growth white pine forests.

[toronto blizzard]

Hope it's a beautiful Fall. I'm headed to Algonquin Provincial Park. Gonna backpack and seek out some old growth white pine forests.

I just hope it's not a torch like how the last few falls have been. If I were a betting man I would say September is warmer than normal then October and November near or below normal

[WestMichigan]

Did you draw that map or was it some model generating that output?

[michsnowfreak]

I am as big a snowlover as anyone, but I LOVE Fall. Its one thing to think ahead to winter, but the last thing I want to do is jump ahead of Fall to get to snow. The crisp air, colorful leaves, apple cider, fall-scented candles, on and on so many reasons to like Fall. It will be nice to get sunny, warm days and cool, clear nights to make for a good color show. October is the main Fall month IMO, as September is certainly the beginning, but October is the month of blazing foliage, by November the trees are bare and we await the first meaningful snows.

The last 2 Octobers were milder than normal, the 2 before that cooler than normal. But of interesting to note, outside of October 2007 which is the 5th warmest October, the remaining 19 of the top 20 warmest Octobers were from 1971 and earlier, most of them much earlier. The most recent year in the top 20 coldest Octobers is 1988, and though the list does include 4 years from the 1980s, once again, a huge majority are from way back. Its interesting how the benchmark cold and even moreso torchy Octobers have really remained barely touched for decades at Detroit.

http://www.crh.noaa....ile=coldoct.htm

If you wanna play the Nino climo card, Id bet on a cooler than normal Fall, especially Oct/Nov.

Another interesting thing about Fall, almost EVERYONE loves it. There are a lot of us who love all 4 seasons, and of course we snow lovers often feel overwhelmed by the summer lovers. But honestly, Fall is the #1, at least here in Michigan. If you could poll everyone of the nearly 10 million people in this state, at ANY time of year, and ask them their favorite season, you will probably see Fall win by a landslide of 70+ percent.

[nwohweather]

Fall around here is the greatest of all time far and away

[SpartyOn]

I am as big a snowlover as anyone, but I LOVE Fall. Its one thing to think ahead to winter, but the last thing I want to do is jump ahead of Fall to get to snow. The crisp air, colorful leaves, apple cider, fall-scented candles, on and on so many reasons to like Fall. It will be nice to get sunny, warm days and cool, clear nights to make for a good color show. October is the main Fall month IMO, as September is certainly the beginning, but October is the month of blazing foliage, by November the trees are bare and we await the first meaningful snows.

The last 2 Octobers were milder than normal, the 2 before that cooler than normal. But of interesting to note, outside of October 2007 which is the 5th warmest October, the remaining 19 of the top 20 warmest Octobers were from 1971 and earlier, most of them much earlier. The most recent year in the top 20 coldest Octobers is 1988, and though the list does include 4 years from the 1980s, once again, a huge majority are from way back. Its interesting how the benchmark cold and even moreso torchy Octobers have really remained barely touched for decades at Detroit.

http://www.crh.noaa....ile=coldoct.htm

If you wanna play the Nino climo card, Id bet on a cooler than normal Fall, especially Oct/Nov.

Another interesting thing about Fall, almost EVERYONE loves it. There are a lot of us who love all 4 seasons, and of course we snow lovers often feel overwhelmed by the summer lovers. But honestly, Fall is the #1, at least here in Michigan. If you could poll everyone of the nearly 10 million people in this state, at ANY time of year, and ask them their favorite season, you will probably see Fall win by a landslide of 70+ percent.

I'm not sure everyone is so thrilled with the Fall weather. You must factor in a multitude of other things. Football is so friggin huge around here, Hunting, Halloween and Thanksgiving and the arival of Christmas at every retailer. Lol. Fall is awesome for weather but I think many people love the non weather stuff as much as we love just the weather or the combo.

[Geos]

I know a lot of fall lovers, including myself. I think the fall will start mild, but then slide to slightly below normal by early November. - with near normal precipitation.

[andyhb]

Since we don't have one, let's discuss fall here.

Looks warm -- GLOBALLY!

Why are you still allowed to post here?

[Jonger]

Since we don't have one, let's discuss fall here.

Looks warm -- GLOBALLY!

Who the heck made this; Jeff Masters?

[SpartyOn]

It's gonna torch. Trends die hard as of late.

Stebo made a good point though. Keep the lakes warm until Nov so the LES belts can rip like no other.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

If we do in fact have an El Nino, then Fall will likely turn chilly by mid October. Even the warmest winters (1997-98 for example) have chilly late Octobers and Novembers it would seem.

[Jonger]

It's gonna torch. Trends die hard as of late.

Stebo made a good point though. Keep the lakes warm until Nov so the LES belts can rip like no other.

An APX study had shown that phenomenon is a myth.... We would be better off with a massive warm-up to melt the lake ice mid winter.

[wisconsinwx]

I am as big a snowlover as anyone, but I LOVE Fall. Its one thing to think ahead to winter, but the last thing I want to do is jump ahead of Fall to get to snow. The crisp air, colorful leaves, apple cider, fall-scented candles, on and on so many reasons to like Fall. It will be nice to get sunny, warm days and cool, clear nights to make for a good color show. October is the main Fall month IMO, as September is certainly the beginning, but October is the month of blazing foliage, by November the trees are bare and we await the first meaningful snows.

The last 2 Octobers were milder than normal, the 2 before that cooler than normal. But of interesting to note, outside of October 2007 which is the 5th warmest October, the remaining 19 of the top 20 warmest Octobers were from 1971 and earlier, most of them much earlier. The most recent year in the top 20 coldest Octobers is 1988, and though the list does include 4 years from the 1980s, once again, a huge majority are from way back. Its interesting how the benchmark cold and even moreso torchy Octobers have really remained barely touched for decades at Detroit.

http://www.crh.noaa....ile=coldoct.htm

If you wanna play the Nino climo card, Id bet on a cooler than normal Fall, especially Oct/Nov.

Another interesting thing about Fall, almost EVERYONE loves it. There are a lot of us who love all 4 seasons, and of course we snow lovers often feel overwhelmed by the summer lovers. But honestly, Fall is the #1, at least here in Michigan. If you could poll everyone of the nearly 10 million people in this state, at ANY time of year, and ask them their favorite season, you will probably see Fall win by a landslide of 70+ percent.

Count me among one of those few then. I've warmed up to it over time (no pun intended), but it starts with ragweed allergies still going strong, and late October and November tend to be full of gloomy cold rains or gloomy days in general. I like a nice coolish rain in late summer, but it gets old by November. Very little severe weather or snow compared to other seasons overall.

[Boogieman]

I think it's going to be an "ODD" fall because of the drought.

A bike ride through the neighborhood this afternoon revealed that a lot of trees dropped a LOT of leaves the last couple days. The sugar maples and other hardwoods seem to be looking pretty rough. I've never seen that many leaves down in August. The leaves that are down look like camo, no other way to describe them. I'm hoping they trees don't become bare before the colors season. That would just plain suck.

Some orchards and cider mills in MI stated they will not run this fall because of extensive crop damage done by the spring heatwave and summer drought. It's not like fall without a trip to the cider mill.

I also wonder if there will be corn left for corn mazes and hayrides? I've seen a couple fields mowed already.

[snowstormcanuck]

I just hope it's not a torch like how the last few falls have been. If I were a betting man I would say September is warmer than normal then October and November near or below normal

If we're just going on gut feelings, prepare yourself for a sucky winter.

[michsnowfreak]

I think it's going to be an "ODD" fall because of the drought.

A bike ride through the neighborhood this afternoon revealed that a lot of trees dropped a LOT of leaves the last couple days. The sugar maples and other hardwoods seem to be looking pretty rough. I've never seen that many leaves down in August. The leaves that are down look like camo, no other way to describe them. I'm hoping they trees don't become bare before the colors season. That would just plain suck.

Some orchards and cider mills in MI stated they will not run this fall because of extensive crop damage done by the spring heatwave and summer drought. It's not like fall without a trip to the cider mill.

I also wonder if there will be corn left for corn mazes and hayrides? I've seen a couple fields mowed already.

March warmth, April freezes, and summer drought have certainly helped matters, but Im sure most of the big cider mills will be open. Its a Fall tradition, prices will just probably be very spiked.

[Boogieman]

March warmth, April freezes, and summer drought have certainly helped matters, but Im sure most of the big cider mills will be open. Its a Fall tradition, prices will just probably be very spiked.

I'm sure feeling bad for those farms who got wiped out by the above stated conditions. That's gotta be hard to take, watching the weather own your crop, knowing there's not very much you can do about it. And I'm sure we'll be seeing a LOT of "spiking" on pretty much everything come fall.

[SpartyOn]

I'm sure feeling bad for those farms who got wiped out by the above stated conditions. That's gotta be hard to take, watching the weather own your crop, knowing there's not very much you can do about it. And I'm sure we'll be seeing a LOT of "spiking" on pretty much everything come fall.

Insurance claim.

[Boogieman]

Insurance claim.

Yes, good point by you. Too bad I don't have "high expenses" insurance policy for those depressing trips to the grocery store, where everything seems to be going up in price every week.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am sure those warm ass anomaly's might not hurt Northern Minnesota enough or Michigan for lack of November Snow, but for a lot of us South of I-80 it's a guarantee of being screwed. A November like 4-8F below normal would be amazing and very welcome. But very doubtful. I wish I could say I had even 1 percent faith for a -5F or more anomaly where I live, but that would require snow cover in ways we haven't had the last week of November in a long time. It also sucks when the Upstream OBS in November are running 3-5F above normal over 9 Novembers.

[Jonger]

I am sure those warm ass anomaly's might not hurt Northern Minnesota enough or Michigan for lack of November Snow, but for a lot of us South of I-80 it's a guarantee of being screwed. A November like 4-8F below normal would be amazing and very welcome. But very doubtful. I wish I could say I had even 1 percent faith for a -5F or more anomaly where I live, but that would require snow cover in ways we haven't had the last week of November in a long time. It also sucks when the Upstream OBS in November are running 3-5F above normal over 9 Novembers.

I would move if snow was more important to me. I never think of st Louis as a place that gets much snow to begin with.

I was going through monthly climate data and it does seem that November has had one of the biggest temp anomalies of the year, October has actually been averaging below the 1895-2000 mean.

[michsnowfreak]

I am sure those warm ass anomaly's might not hurt Northern Minnesota enough or Michigan for lack of November Snow, but for a lot of us South of I-80 it's a guarantee of being screwed. A November like 4-8F below normal would be amazing and very welcome. But very doubtful. I wish I could say I had even 1 percent faith for a -5F or more anomaly where I live, but that would require snow cover in ways we haven't had the last week of November in a long time. It also sucks when the Upstream OBS in November are running 3-5F above normal over 9 Novembers.

Not really sure what this hand-selected map, starting right after the cold Nov of 2002, has to do with this coming November. November snow the last decade has been at an all-time low here, though conversely Jan and especially February snow has been at an all-time high. At the end of the day, I think Ill take above normal snow in Feb (averaging 14-15" instead of 9-10") over Nov (averaging 1" instead of 3") lol. But I do have a feeling that this will finally be the overdue below-normal-temperature November. We are certainly due for it. Even in cold Novembers however, snowcover that lasts more than a few days is rare until you get into far northern MN/WI/MI. Once we get into December is when things can really kick into high gear.

[Jonger]

Not really sure what this hand-selected map, starting right after the cold Nov of 2002, has to do with this coming November. November snow the last decade has been at an all-time low here, though conversely Jan and especially February snow has been at an all-time high. At the end of the day, I think Ill take above normal snow in Feb (averaging 14-15" instead of 9-10") over Nov (averaging 1" instead of 3") lol. But I do have a feeling that this will finally be the overdue below-normal-temperature November. We are certainly due for it. Even in cold Novembers however, snowcover that lasts more than a few days is rare until you get into far northern MN/WI/MI. Once we get into December is when things can really kick into high gear.

For some reason November has been above normal this decade and below normal in October, no idea why. December has been close to normal as well. November is kind of a outlier.

[Entropy]

Not really sure what this hand-selected map, starting right after the cold Nov of 2002, has to do with this coming November. November snow the last decade has been at an all-time low here, though conversely Jan and especially February snow has been at an all-time high. At the end of the day, I think Ill take above normal snow in Feb (averaging 14-15" instead of 9-10") over Nov (averaging 1" instead of 3") lol. But I do have a feeling that this will finally be the overdue below-normal-temperature November. We are certainly due for it. Even in cold Novembers however, snowcover that lasts more than a few days is rare until you get into far northern MN/WI/MI. Once we get into December is when things can really kick into high gear.

The trend towards warm Novembers predates 2002 & 2003. November 1998, 1999, and 2001 all featured torch-like warmth. In fact, starting in 1998 would actually produce an even warmer map than the one posted above.

[Jonger]

Looking at models for the next 2 weeks and figuring in the last few days, this month will definitely be below normal for much of the Great Lakes. Anyone else agree with that?

[SpartyOn]

Looking at models for the next 2 weeks and figuring in the last few days, this month will definitely be below normal for much of the Great Lakes. Anyone else agree with that?

All it would take would be ond solid final week heatwave to wipe out the current meager departures. Let's talk next weekend.

[Geos]

Looking at models for the next 2 weeks and figuring in the last few days, this month will definitely be below normal for much of the Great Lakes. Anyone else agree with that?

Blocking is predicted the rest of the month, so I would agree with that cool prediction.

[PatrickSumner]

Blocking is predicted the rest of the month, so I would agree with that cool prediction.

Any ideas on September???