goombatommy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12Z GFS ensemble member p001. There's always one, I tell ya. Ya your not kidding lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very interesting long term discussion out of Upton. Definitly leans towards the GFS solution and makes a good argument as to why. I'm not going to post it here but its a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ya your not kidding lol. nothing like some wind swept rain..believe me that's not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 does anyone have a take on the 12z ECMWF ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think eastern parts of SNE are really going to cash in on this one. It feels like a late developing Miller B is in the works here and pretty much everybody south of NYC is going to be screwed. Looking at the GFS runs that were hits and the precip profiles you can see this. They will exact their revenge for what happened in February of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 look at this map; it shows the last 4 GFS runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think eastern parts of SNE are really going to cash in on this one. It feels like a late developing Miller B is in the works here and pretty much everybody south of NYC is going to be screwed. Looking at the GFS runs that were hits and the precip profiles you can see this. They will exact their revenge for what happened in February of this year. This is very plainly a Miller A... I have no idea what maps you're looking at, but there isn't an area of LP that redevelops off the NE coast, the system comes straight out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 He said 'it feels like a miller b' not that it is one. Meaning one of those that develops too late for areas south of NYC but manages to blast new england. This is very plainly a Miller A... I have no idea what maps you're looking at, but there isn't an area of LP that redevelops off the NE coast, the system comes straight out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Let me be clear......I never said it was a Miller B but the results to me end up looking like one. The whole system is coming together too late to help out anybody meaningfully south of NYC but with the huge block in place the entire systems swings west late in the game to whack SNE. That is how I think it will end up playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DGEX gives Nassau county .25" NYC about .20" Eastern LI about .50" And destroys SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 At the very best, if you ask me. The DGEX will give us more insight, but I think it will end up east of the GFS and further east than the left side of the model envelope. It's just a little too late. John, does the DGEX show the storm retrograding in the later panels and slamming us? Crazy wild solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 John, does the DGEX show the storm retrograding in the later panels and slamming us? Crazy wild solution! Day 7 to Day 10 of ECMWF look very favorable for a East Coast Snowstorm. Lovely trough it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Of course it does. It just wouldn't be right to not have a big snowstorm on the horizon 10 days out Day 7 to Day 10 of ECMWF look very favorable for a East Coast Snowstorm. Lovely trough it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Chalk up another victory for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS is really caving to the Euro WRT southern stream...this one might be over, guys. I really hate to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the new 18z DGEX is JUST east; gets coastal NJ and slams NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jeez its still 4 days or so out and people are already giving up? This storm still has a chance to surprise us in many ways. As eluded to before the euro has a tendency to hold back shortwaves too long and to add on to that the players or all of them aren't even on the field yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Do not despair... Im really not sure why people are using the 18z GFS for establishing trends-- especially since the well sampled area hasnt even been reached yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jeez its still 4 days or so out and people are already giving up? This storm still has a chance to surprise us in many ways. As eluded to before the euro has a tendency to hold back shortwaves too long and to add on to that the players or all of them aren't even on the field yet Yes but this is not the time you want to loose your star player...without the GFS on board their really is not a lot of support. I'm not saying its time to give up but its definitly looking like a dissapointing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS is really caving to the Euro WRT southern stream...this one might be over, guys. I really hate to say it. Calling it over on Wednesday? I'd wait another day or until 00z tomorrow to go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Calling it over on Wednesday? I'd wait another day or until 00z tomorrow to go that far. Well I'm being a bit premature, but the main differences are what goes on from 0 to 48 hours...that's what's causing the divergence in the models. This is why I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS is really caving to the Euro WRT southern stream...this one might be over, guys. I really hate to say it. the EC had a storm only one or two runs....this was never really happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well I'm being a bit premature, but the main differences are what goes on from 0 to 48 hours...that's what's causing the divergence in the models. This is why I'm concerned. I think your reasoning is sound but I wouldnt base your conclusion on the 18z GFS -May be better served to until Oz tonight. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes but this is not the time you want to loose your star player...without the GFS on board their really is not a lot of support. I'm not saying its time to give up but its definitly looking like a dissapointing run. I agree with that but I mean there have been instances where establised trends later. I won't throw in the towel till the main feature is on the continental u.s. so there would be pretty good sampling data presented to the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think we have short memories. It was just 1 year ago we had a similiar situation that was unclear until the THursday before the Saturday storm. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This could not have been a more significant trend to the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm loving how people are ignoring the 18z GFS. Not giving up untill I see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 two lows at 72hrs then one again at 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Coastal areas should not give up. However if you are inland by about 50 miles then it is time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Coastal areas should not give up. However if you are inland by about 50 miles then it is time to move on. This is ridiculous but we all knew that it wasn't going to happen based on strong la nina climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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