Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:19 PM, am19psu said: Over the long run, the Euro is the best model, period. It falls off in accuracy monotonically in time. For individual events, the Euro has the best probability of being correct, but for any one storm, the GFS or the UKM or the GEM might "win." The whole deadly thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me. and lets hope that this is one of those holding back energy in the SW times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:18 PM, Feb said: I'm not discounting any late minute shifts but i would at least like to see it TREND better the next run or two. I agree with this Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:13 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Thats not the point that i was making ..I was making a point on the ECM was the first to show what the GFS started showing later. 4 runs in a row that the ECM did this... before it started backing off and if you look at its means versus the operational run the means are more consistent with what the GFS has been showing then what the OP ECM has been showing... The ECM is deadly 48 and under...NOT before hand..its fallible just like any other model prior to 48 hrs... lol...no model is perfect at any point. Even the Euro inside 48 misses on minute details (I think it whiffed on 2/5 in NY even at 24-36 hours) The Euro, however, is the superior model. It cleaned the GFS' clock on last Sunday if you remember. To be honest, it doesn't matter what a model shows 7 days out except that there's a storm signal. It also doesn't matter if the ensemble mean for a model agrees with the OP of another. The ensembles are not as high of resolution as the op and they are far more prone to error. The ensembles shouldn't be looked at as gospel or even as anything other than another "tool" to support the op of the main model they are run on, not what another model is showing. The GFS hasn't had a consistent track or path with this storm outside of 12-18z for several days...it's been all over the place. It doesn't mean that the Euro is right, necessarily, but I would feel more comfortable forecasting with the Euro right now given the consistency it has shown of a weaker solution than the GFS, which is all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:19 PM, am19psu said: Over the long run, the Euro is the best model, period. It falls off in accuracy monotonically in time. For individual events, the Euro has the best probability of being correct, but for any one storm, the GFS or the UKM or the GEM might "win." The whole deadly thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Ive heard that its especially more accurate in la ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:21 PM, phlwx said: lol...no model is perfect at any point. Even the Euro inside 48 misses on minute details (I think it whiffed on 2/5 in NY even at 24-36 hours) The Euro, however, is the superior model. It cleaned the GFS' clock on last Sunday if you remember. To be honest, it doesn't matter what a model shows 7 days out except that there's a storm signal. It also doesn't matter if the ensemble mean for a model agrees with the OP of another. The ensembles are not as high of resolution as the op and they are far more prone to error. The ensembles shouldn't be looked at as gospel or even as anything other than another "tool" to support the op of the main model they are run on, not what another model is showing. The GFS hasn't had a consistent track or path with this storm outside of 12-18z for several days...it's been all over the place. It doesn't mean that the Euro is right, necessarily, but I would feel more comfortable forecasting with the Euro right now given the consistency it has shown of a weaker solution than the GFS, which is all over the map. But you're still missing the point. not having a storm and being flat ended up looking the same but for different reasons. The GFS has been far from consistent but you can't say you buy the euro because it hasn't shown a big storm and the GFS has been all over the place. Well you can, I just wouldn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:15 PM, am19psu said: Where did this old wives' tale come from? Verification stats if you go and look at them... Not going to get much better then that i do not think... 96 hrs is much more off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There really is no rush to judge which solution is correct or to give up on anything-- I mean, most of us dont have to plan for Sunday 4 days in advance Let's just let it play out and try to maintain an even keel and an open mind. Ive never understood the need to have everything figured out days in advance outside of having to make special plans (like a wedding) on a particular day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:22 PM, A-L-E-X said: Ive heard that its especially more accurate in la ninas. Seems to be pretty static wrt to GFS over time. I don't see any annual change in Ninos or Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:20 PM, Kaner587 said: and lets hope that this is one of those holding back energy in the SW times... That is usually move of a problem when we have a S/W ejecting out of the desert southwest, its a known bias for years. Dont see how that applies in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If the nam is so "good" inside 48 hrs shouldnt we be looking at what it does with the pac shortwave? looks pretty amped up so far on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:12 PM, Kaner587 said: you're right and the GFS hasn't exactly been consistent but you're simplifying things saying the euro has been consistent because its shown no storm since sunday night or whenever. First it showed no storm because of awful PV orientation but decent to good southern stream s/w and recently its been great PV orientation and NO southern stream s/w. hardly consistent if you ask me. On 12/15/2010 at 8:23 PM, Kaner587 said: But you're still missing the point. not having a storm and being flat ended up looking the same but for different reasons. The GFS has been far from consistent but you can't say you buy the euro because it hasn't shown a big storm and the GFS has been all over the place. Well you can, I just wouldn't agree. I'm only arguing the Euro's surface reflection (the bottom line) is consistent. The 500 over Eastern Canada has been a mess on both models -- I won't even defend the Euro aloft. At the surface, which is what ultimately matters, it's been far more consistent with the handling of the paper storm than the GFS has been since Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:24 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Verification stats if you go and look at them... Not going to get much better then that i do not think... 96 hrs is much more off Ok, now look at the GFS for the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:25 PM, NorEaster27 said: That is usually move of a problem when we have a S/W ejecting out of the desert southwest, its a known bias for years. Dont see how that applies in this case. the mets in the general forum were talking about it as a legit reason to toss the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:25 PM, NorEaster27 said: That is usually move of a problem when we have a S/W ejecting out of the desert southwest, its a known bias for years. Dont see how that applies in this case. That's my opinion on the SW bias as well. Like I said, I think this is more of an initialization issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:25 PM, CooL said: If the nam is so "good" inside 48 hrs shouldnt we be looking at what it does with the pac shortwave? looks pretty amped up so far on the 18z agreed...lets see how it handles the PV retrograding westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:25 PM, CooL said: If the nam is so "good" inside 48 hrs shouldnt we be looking at what it does with the pac shortwave? looks pretty amped up so far on the 18z Good point. The shortwave in question is already in the first half of the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did I just step into a model verification analysis thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:29 PM, Sundog said: Did I just step into a model verification analysis thread? I have some time at work today, so I am trying to kill off misconceptions about things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:26 PM, am19psu said: Ok, now look at the GFS for the same period. Have already done that ..the GFS has NADA to do with what i was trying to get across.. The point I am trying to get across is that the ECM is fallible just like any other model it is not till 48 hrs and under that it would be in its more efficient deadly range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:32 PM, atownwxwatcher said: Have already done that ..the GFS has NADA to do with what i was trying to get across.. The point I am trying to get across is that the ECM is fallible just like any other model it is not till 48 hrs and under that it would be in its more efficient deadly range.. Right. All models get progressively worse the farther out in time you go. The Euro is better than any other model, but sometimes other models "win." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM doesn't seem to be splitting the vortex on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM def less amplified this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think the NAM looks similar to, if not better than the 12z GFS at 72. The southern stream is more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:39 PM, Colin said: NAM def less amplified this run... Maybe, but now it is dropping the PV lobe to the east in favor of a further west and larger singular PV, much like the GFS. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:37 PM, RowanBrandon said: NAM doesn't seem to be splitting the vortex on this run. I dont think the GFS did either that doesn't need to occur if the PV retrogrades instead of staying over maine/quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wind fields are pretty poor for getting something up this coast this go around on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The trough axis looks a bit east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 weenies will now commence bridge jumping. lets hope it rallies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:43 PM, earthlight said: Wind fields are pretty poor for getting something up this coast this go around on the NAM. Agree...also even though the trough is further west than the 6z for this time frame, it is more positively tilted. Looks like a surrender to the Euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 8:46 PM, isnice said: Agree...also even though the trough is further west than the 6z for this time frame, it is more positively tilted. Looks like a surrender to the Euro and its ensembles. I wouldn't call it a surrender...but it's not totally surprising that it was a bit less amplified given that euro is so far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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