December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[LocoAko]

FWIW, the 12Z GFS gives RUTG 4.0". I'll take it.

[tombo82685]

ok its up, out to hr 6, hopefully no more malfunctions

[earthlight]

Euro is now out to hour 6, hold on tight..

[LocoAko]

Where do you go to find that total for new brunswick?

There is a bufkit file for New Brunswick (RUTG). It is available from the PSU site: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

[Allsnow]

There is a bufkit file for New Brunswick (RUTG). It is available from the PSU site: http://www.meteo.psu...NUS_NAM_12.html

Thanks Jake...

[chubbs]

Looking at Euro initialization on E-wall. The key shortwave in the Pacific looks a little stronger - now has a second vorticity contour

[NortheastPAWx]

I guess someone had to press CTRL+ALT+DEL at the ECM headquarters.

Hopefully we continue the positive trends so far.

[tombo82685]

Looking at Euro initialization on E-wall. The key shortwave in the Pacific looks a little stronger - now has a second vorticity contour

im out to hr 24 and the vortex over the east is already further west compared to 0z

[goombatommy]

im out to hr 24 and the vortex over the east is already further west compared to 0z

Keep those fingers crossed!

[tombo82685]

euro has some lgt precip for the area thurs night...the pv is a lot further west on the 12z

[Midlo Snow Maker]

euro has some lgt precip for the area thurs night...the pv is a lot further west on the 12z, stronger hgt rises on east coast

any totals for 1st event

DC

RIC

Norfolk

thankies

[tombo82685]

.1 qpf from the first storm is up to baltimore on the euro

[mitchnick]

any totals for 1st event

DC

RIC

Norfolk

thankies

.3" at RIC 6 hrs ending 30hrs

[tombo82685]

any totals for 1st event

DC

RIC

Norfolk

thankies

dc .1-.15

ric .25-.5

orf .25-.5

[mitchnick]

DC -.14"

RIC-.38

Norfolk -.48

BWI-.1

[mitchnick]

DC -.14"

RIC-.38

Norfolk -.48

BWI-.1

these are precise # off a pay site, if you know what I mean

[tombo82685]

out hr 54 the pv continues further west but the s/w looks anemic

[ag3]

Hour 48:

[ag3]

Hour 72:

[tombo82685]

through hr 90 there is no sruface reflection at all, the trof is pretty neg tilted, but no surface reflection, also its not as amplified in my eyes as 0z

[tombo82685]

hr 96 has a 1008 low about 150 miles east of hse

[Kmlwx]

through hr 90 there is no sruface reflection at all, the trof is pretty neg tilted, but no surface reflection, also its not as amplified in my eyes as 0z

So is it looking like the Euro vs. the westward trends of the GFS, GGEM?

[tombo82685]

hr 108 broad area of 1008 pressure about 400 miles east of hse

[Radders]

No pronounced southern flow short wave on this run at all.. Looks like it forms a weak surface low at 84 of the coast of SC and then it just slips NE out to sea.

[NorEaster27]

ride the EURO on this one to avoid more disappointment

[mitchnick]

if Canadian wasn't on board, I'd be really worried

strange that its so flat

[tombo82685]

hr 108 sub 1004 low 400-500 miles east of orf

[opengeo]

if Canadian wasn't on board, I'd be really worried

strange that its so flat

Let's see what the GEM Ens say. Maybe the Op was a fluke.

[Weathergun]

12z UKMET is still out sea:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

[bluehens]

Final nail in coffin. Euro at this timeframe is normally locking in things.