gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seems like the 18Z NAM isn't working with the most current data, throw it out. Why would the 18z NAM have older/worse data than the 12z Euro? I'd like to see an educated response on the data assimilation, because it seems like "Well, so and so model has bad data" is just a crutch we rely on when we don't like the outcome of a model sometimes. What's the truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Why would the 18z NAM have older/worse data than the 12z Euro? I'd like to see an educated response on the data assimilation, because it seems like "Well, so and so model has bad data" is just a crutch we rely on when we don't like the outcome of a model sometimes. What's the truth? From some of the other threads, it seems that it is using data from the 12Z NAM, which didn't have updated data on that ever so important s/w that the 12Z Euro did have. I dunno, seems like the 6Z/18Z suites are a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How do the Euro ensembles look for PHL? I heard it was generally east of the Op. They are a little bit east of the OP...still a nice hit for the NYC area. Not sure on the PHL metro--I get my Euro ensemble information from word of mouth, not images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 12Z KMA Hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 From some of the other threads, it seems that it is using data from the 12Z NAM, which didn't have updated data on that ever so important s/w that the 12Z Euro did have. Well this is what I'm referring to. Says who? Are they making it up? I'd like to see someone who would really know comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well this is what I'm referring to. Says who? Are they making it up? I'd like to see someone who would really know comment on it. Yea me too, any red taggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well this is what I'm referring to. Says who? Are they making it up? I'd like to see someone who would really know comment on it. I agree about this because I saw this in the general forum, but honestly, its the 18z nam at 60hrs I would NOT lose sleep over this it is so different than the other models that have come west there a 0% chance this verifies. This may be a good storm for NE and not for us but not a chance the 18z nam is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Images of the ECM means are found on Raleighs Weather model page and the means look to support the OP ...and it looks like it would be a major hit ! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well this is what I'm referring to. Says who? Are they making it up? I'd like to see someone who would really know comment on it. 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How do the Euro ensembles look for PHL? I heard it was generally east of the Op. the mean was just SE of the BM and many had big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well this is what I'm referring to. Says who? Are they making it up? I'd like to see someone who would really know comment on it. Yea me too, any red taggers? Personally, I don't think any model got the s/w in their initialization from this morning. I checked the WV at 715a, and it hadn't made landfall yet. But, BUT, Tony says they did and he works for NWS, so he's got a better handle on it than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Earthlight how does central long island look for this storm with the current model data. From what I can see it looks awesome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Earthlight how does central long island look for this storm with the current model data. From what I can see it looks awesome? Central Long Island is in a very good spot right now given the recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM ensemble mean is east of the operational, in case anyone cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Central Long Island is in a very good spot right now given the recent trends. Ok that's good very good haha....now do you think this trend will continue to tonights 18z gfs and 00z gfs and be a threat? Taking in the recent run of the nam as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes!!! Didn't expect that today! Just got home from work and am trying to catch up. I'm guessing that this is for the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Goodness, the NAM absolutely REEKS of convective feedback issues off the NC/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Goodness, the NAM absolutely REEKS of convective feedback issues off the NC/SC coast. I saw that as well. But it's also less amplified way earlier than that--around 30 hrs--so it was probably headed flat anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Goodness, the NAM absolutely REEKS of convective feedback issues off the NC/SC coast. it was way east at 12z too..same data..same result..it's a outliner..it shows no storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Goodness, the NAM absolutely REEKS of convective feedback issues off the NC/SC coast. So what your saying is that the nam run has issues and shouldn't fully be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 it was way east at 12z too..same data..same result..it's a outliner..it shows no storm! It also fires off an initial low center way earlier and more north up the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like 40% POP from Upton Sunday-Sunday night except for LI but Mt Holly is going with 70-90% for Sunday across most of NJ/Philly/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hopefully the 18Z GFS, although not nearly as important as tonight's 00Z will continue the trends of more amplification. I would be worried if the GFS jumps back OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Why was my post deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z Nam lol. it is so wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Just to recap 12z (12/16) NYC QPF GFS: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM : 0.50 - 0.75 ECM : 1.5 - 1.75" UK : looked OTS GFS ENSEMBLES : Mean was west of OP 0.75 (+) GGEM ENSEMBLES : Mean was East of Op ECM ENSEMBLES : mean was in line with OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 if its ok with earthlight and mods im gonna start another thread we are about 1000 replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z Nam lol. it is so wrong lol True, but as earthlight said, it did not have the setup early on to likely be a hit anyway....basically the NAM continues to be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Central Long Island is in a very good spot right now given the recent trends. If I had to pick ajackpot without worrying about mix (right now), it would be central LI. GGEM ensemble mean is east of the operational, in case anyone cares. How far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 if its ok with earthlight and mods im gonna start another thread we are about 1000 replies. Adam has been starting them, I'd let him continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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